Cheltenham Festival Roll-Ups

[archie]

At ?51M it's probably a risk worth taking for the club. Think of it as Fred with a million pound discount.

On a more general note, I never do bets that depend on a single sportsman staying fit. Bets on Ruby as top Cheltenham jockey and, recently, Tshimanga underline the fragility of this sort of bet.

[Hurricane fly]

Kyprios is a stone clear of his rivals today so have added him to win by 4+ lengths (7:30 Leo) at a boosted 13/8

TSL (Turners) w/ Skybet - 27.5/1 - 1.4pt

[somer1]

I seem to be doing more doubles/trebles with the 2nd or 3rd leg at The Fest this year than any other. The prices this year and last are a bit of a joke for ante post betting. Seeing i only play at ante post betting im happy to play it this way (smaller stakes doubles and up wards) As it stands i have GDC in 4 roll ups Allaho in 2 (would like two more) Constitution Hill in 5. So for me this is my plan with the trixies and multis im doing. Will it leave me in profit after the Fest? No i dont think it will but will pick up a lump sum or hope to and thats all what matters to me.

[isitmarchyet]

Not very often I look through the racecards at this time of year, but I've been sucked into a couple of roll up attempts with Farout this evening. Know nothing about the flat and it feels a bit muggy, but 5-1 was too tempting.

[Hurricane fly]

Kyprios is a stone clear of his rivals today so have added him to win by 4+ lengths (7:30 Leo) at a boosted 13/8

TSL (Turners) w/ Skybet - 27.5/1 - 1.4pt

Landed with a 10p Rule 4

Another one tomorrow, Deodar - 19:40 Doncaster is 7/4 to win by 4 lengths or more.

Appears to be 19llb better off on RPRs and the form was franked with Flaming Rib winning at Chester.

Have added with The Nice Guy @15.5/1 - 1pt

May invest again if the price holds

[Hurricane fly]

A 5:30am feed for the newly termed Tornado Flyer has resulted in me investing again in the above bet.

None of Deodars opponents got within 5 lengths of winning in any of their last 2 races, in fact only once has any opponent - Gabriellas Spirit 4 races ago - ever got within 5 lengths. They have all been racing far inferior horses than Deodar on ratings aswell.

8 point win single

Doubled with:
Jonbon (A) - 21/1 - 1pt
Sir Gerhard (Any Race) - 12.5/1 - 1pt

If I had my bank from last year I think I'd end up with 6 or 7 doubles but have decided to take on as a large single instead.

[Odin]

A 5:30am feed for the newly termed Tornado Flyer has resulted in me investing again in the above bet.

None of Deodars opponents got within 5 lengths of winning in any of their last 2 races, in fact only once has any opponent - Gabriellas Spirit 4 races ago - ever got within 5 lengths. They have all been racing far inferior horses than Deodar on ratings aswell.

8 point win single

Doubled with:
Jonbon (A) - 21/1 - 1pt
Sir Gerhard (Any Race) - 12.5/1 - 1pt

If I had my bank from last year I think I'd end up with 6 or 7 doubles but have decided to take on as a large single instead.

I'm interested to see how these go for you HF. I'm generally cautious of the win by X lengths bets as I normally get a 2l winner when I needed 3l but I've never picked using the 'seems to be 20lbs ahead of all competitors' method so hope it works out for you across the season and I can jump on it next year

[Hurricane fly]

I'm interested to see how these go for you HF. I'm generally cautious of the win by X lengths bets as I normally get a 2l winner when I needed 3l but I've never picked using the 'seems to be 20lbs ahead of all competitors' method so hope it works out for you across the season and I can jump on it next year

Its a strange one as I'm more confident but also more nervous about today's as it's only over 6f and he could just bridle it the whole way, but if he gets a tap he's gone.

It's not something I've ever really got involved in but they do seem good value.

Yeaterday Kypriote went off at 1/10 I expect Deodar to go off a similar price. So 7/4 strangely seems value to me.

[Odin]

Its a strange one as I'm more confident but also more nervous about today's as it's only over 6f and he could just bridle it the whole way, but if he gets a tap he's gone.

It's not something I've ever really got involved in but they do seem good value.

Yeaterday Kypriote went off at 1/10 I expect Deodar to go off a similar price. So 7/4 strangely seems value to me.

Definitely see the angle even with 7/4 being a 'short' price. Think the bridal comment best sums up my worries about them and with not always knowing the horses, it's difficult to know if they're a Stradivarius just doing enough or a Frankel who blitzes their opponents. I suspect they will work better in graded races than maidens/handicaps where the trainers are trying to hide their horses ability a bit but that's me guessing. I'm rooting for you anyway so fingers crossed and good luck mate

[Benjy23]

Don't follow the flat closely enough to know about the circumstances on these but in general my concern with length bets is if they're ever looking at protecting a handicap mark.

WD with yesterday's though. Obviously wasn't an issue there!

[Zachx02]

As much as I'd like to hop on it like I did kyprios last night, Jamie Spencer is on board and need to follow my rules about not backing him!

[Ice]

As much as I'd like to hop on it like I did kyprios last night, Jamie Spencer is on board and need to follow my rules about not backing him!

Nice to hear I'm not on my own with not backing anything with jamie spencer on !

[Hurricane fly]

That's an actual disgrace

[FinalFurlong91]

Jamie "win by the shortest distance possible" Spencer is probably not the pilot you want on your horse when doing distance bets

[Hurricane fly]

Gone for a Uttoxeter double to try and help get Constitution Hill into the book

Toughasoldboots in the opener - 5/2
Halligator in the 2:17 - 8/11 (4/5 available though)

+ CH pays a shade over 17/1, 1pt added

TASOB beat a 107 rated horse 26 lengths on debut in a Class 4 is being given 1st 6lb by a 117 rated horse in Foutains Chief who's last race was a walk over and his previous win (both C4) doesn't have form stacking up in those that have run since.
At the weights I think he's the selection.

Halligator is one I could possibly use on his own with a bigger price - I do like a 4/5, 10/11 shot for a horse at 25s as it essentially gets me to my target 50pt return with room for a small top up if they collapse in price. The winner of his sole bumper has been tried at the highest level at both DRF(bumper) and Punchestown (hurdles) coming 3rd behind El Fabiolo after winning a maiden at a canter. The 3rd has been busy and has a couple of places under his belt over hurdles. I don't see anything in the field with any semblance of form that can touch that.


Edit - In fact writing that small summary has spurred me to add:

Halligator / An Tobar (Ballymore) - 44/1 - 1pt

Will take me to 69pt return for An Tobar, a forum fav I may end up trying to make a 100pt winner before debut