Cheltenham 2020 Analysis - What did I learn, with 2021 in mind

[Kevloaf]

Brilliant read. How you have the energy to write up that lot amazes me but very well done. Sounds like you had an incredible week and those AP prices were spectacular. Cracking profit to boot.

It's actually quite enjoyable to do in managable little chunks. I'm glad it's done though

Cracking stuff Kev, and FYI, you're not alone backing E/W, been doing it since day 1 myself too

I look forward to the many write ups on here but yours is usually the most thorough. Once I've made profit from the festival the lag happens and I never get round to what you are able to produce.

Thanks mate. No doubt the lockdown has helped ensure I had the time. I remember not wanting to do it at all last year but I was quite excited to this time around, after enough time had passed.

[Kevloaf]

Decent read that Kev warts & all, solid numbers indeed. Regarding your e/w approach, no doubt it suits your book building style as you are looking for 3 returns essentially within that approach. I am surprised to learn 20/1< at 1 point is "isn't worth it to me"you must be flush.

P.S I think it's only fair you change your picture to a closet for a month after the pentland confession.

Thanks. It's not a case of being flush, but it is a product of years of betting. 1 or 2 point wins at single figures do lose a bit of lustre when you've had 20/1, 25/1 and 33/1 winners for the same stake.

I try really hard to not increase my stake just because the odds are shorter just to 'win enough'... I try to look at each price as whether its value and back that. Otherwise you bet more money on prices where you have less on an edge.

Hard to explain to be fair, and I didn't mean I don't want a winner at less than 20/1 because of course I do, I just mean I know they can't really make or break the week as such?

[ComplyOrDie]

Love a forecast/tricast bet, nearly hit the big one, although still paid nicely. 2019 Festival all of WPM's runners in the mares novice, ended up being a 50/1 & 66/1 forecast, paying 1874pts, shame about the tricast though and I had backed Tintangle (I think) and Black Tears in E/W singles.

Bit of gold mine that race that year for me!

I don't think I will ever top that.

[Kevloaf]

I wouldn't describe it as lazy but I am amazed at the ease in which you (and others) are able to get rid of bets on horses where it has been widely communicated they will be missing the target.
I don’t get what the strategy is from bookies, does it look good for turnover ? Do the assume all returns from cash out will be re-invested ? I don’t know but you and plenty of others are playing the system well and taking advantage of what is a flaw in their operation.

As a side, how many of your ‘pokes’ that landed would not have been placed had cash out not existed ?
I guess this could give you an indication of how valuable cash out is to you and what the potential cost would be if it didn’t exist.

Who does cash out now, just 365 ?

Yeah I'm surprised it isn't a flag for them. I suppose in general terms people that cash out are losing punters... In this specific horse racing / targets case it works but just in general, as a tool, it must be profitable for the bookies.



It's probably a bit too hard for me to conclusively say which bets I would or wouldn't have had if I wasn't using cash out. It is only 365 I utilise for it really. If they aren't top price I usually wait, so I guess bar them I am already less inclined to 'have a poke'.


To put it another way, I'm not worried for when I haven't got it... I know I'll still make money, and at the moment I know it doesn't make or break my week by any stretch. It just makes it a lot easier in the novice hurdle divisions in particular...and I've messed those up a few times by getting 'pot-commited' which wouldn't happen without cashout.

[Istabraq]

Whilst it’s great to know exactly what your outlay/return numbers are Kev touched on this in his write up but the diaries only cover AP bets, I doubt there’s many who close the book at the weekend and only watch for 4 days, everyone is tempted by daily bets surely ?

I get stuck into a number of spread markets and match bets that only appear of the day of the race, and of course spreads carry an entirely different points system, also I’ve lost count the number of times I’ve darted out of a bar/box to back something I’d forgot.
I tend not to plat forecasts/tricasts but there’s been some discussion in here around Tote strategies.

Just to highlight the difference these late bets can make, when Imperial Commander beat Denman/Kauto it had been hosing down for much of the day and ground was Softening, there was (a typically complex) spread market offered where you multiply the distance between the winner to the runner up with the distance between the runner up and the third.
From memory the spread was 27-30, I bought it for a decent amount at 30, Imperial Commander won by 7 lengths and there was a further 25 ish back to the third (Kauto ?) So it made up around 175 giving a profit of 145 units.
In todays money that one win would probably equate to around three times my AP fixed odds outlay.
Of course spreads can, and do, easily go the other way but we live for those kind of results...

[ComplyOrDie]

Whilst it’s great to know exactly what your outlay/return numbers are Kev touched on this in his write up but the diaries only cover AP bets, I doubt there’s many who close the book at the weekend and only watch for 4 days, everyone is tempted by daily bets surely ?

Exactly this Ista. I struggle to keep the diary up to date as it is, I think Kev picked up on this after the festival when I produced my total stake figures (no where near what the diary had), but not all on the day stakes. It was a combination of probably two weeks prior to the festival and then over the course of it running.

The exchanges probably ensured it went up a bit too, waiting for bets to match, then forgetting, it takes me a while to get these up to date.

[Istabraq]

It's probably a bit too hard for me to conclusively say which bets I would or wouldn't have had if I wasn't using cash out.

When I read your write up Kev and typed the question in my mind I had your Burning Ambition 40/1 bet in mind, no idea what your stake was but any 40/1 winner will make a big difference to your P&L.
If you’re in the habit of throwing one point on a dozen Triumph horses of which you can get rid of half before they are confirmed NRs the, cash out is a huge tool to have at your disposal because you know the exchanges will have nothing on the lay side ling before any announcement is made about a horses engagement.

I guess my point is take the cash out away and you/others might not throw so many darts and miss out on those 40/1 pokes, but for yours and everyone’s sake I hope the facility is available for as long as you want it...

[JackieMoon33]

Year on year I tend to do more and more multiples. I accept that I'll have long losing runs with them, and some years the returns won't cover the outlay, but it's my only method of winning a life changing amount.

The way I view it is that a winning single will only pay for my next few bets. A winning multiple may mean I'll never have to work again (that's the dream).

I don't punt professionally and only play at ante post betting. Therefore I'm all in on the multiples as I want to retire myself to stud.

[Istabraq]

Exactly this Ista. I struggle to keep the diary up to date as it is.

Yeah, having not done it last year until near kick off have to say I’m losing some interest now, the concept is great and I think it would have greater value for capturing the big fancies/singles but I’ve not been getting stuck into these without any new info/form to use.
I have a policy of throwing a fancy into multis to get full benefit of the price, is anyone really interested in how many political leaders or NFL division winners I can pair up with Fakir Doudaries ?
As for the weekly free bets it gets painful writing down another 200/1 five horse multi request a bet, maybe I’ll feel differently in the Autumn when horses are back and you can take a strong/stronger view on races...

[Kautostar]

Everybody needs to be ready to evolve the moment you lose access to a bet365 account, it really is a game changer when you get used to betting with a safety net of cash out and suddenly it’s gone.

[Kevloaf]

When I read your write up Kev and typed the question in my mind I had your Burning Ambition 40/1 bet in mind, no idea what your stake was but any 40/1 winner will make a big difference to your P&L.
If you’re in the habit of throwing one point on a dozen Triumph horses of which you can get rid of half before they are confirmed NRs the, cash out is a huge tool to have at your disposal because you know the exchanges will have nothing on the lay side ling before any announcement is made about a horses engagement.

I guess my point is take the cash out away and you/others might not throw so many darts and miss out on those 40/1 pokes, but for yours and everyone’s sake I hope the facility is available for as long as you want it...

Not the way I went in the Triumph as it's not a race that really lends itself as well as others becasue you'd need to do too many, the 40/1 on Burning Victory was not as random as you are potentially implying (but I get what your point/question is)


This was my Triumph ante post play. All 1 pt or (2 pts if e/w)

Triumph
Solo 25/1 e/w (NRNB) and 20/1 e/w (NRNB)
Burning Victory 40/1 e/w (NRNB)

.... I also had free bets on Cerberus and A Wave Of The Sea...



The pokes I did have were Homer and Monte Cristo both cashed out after flops.

So in this case, I think I'd have had Burning Victory regardless, as it was highlighted as the likely only Mullins runner, whilst unbeaten...

[Hardy Eustace]

Hello Kev, wanted to ask you around your EW approach. Obviously they are 2 separate bets and presumably for you to place an EW bet you must view the place bet to be value as well as the win bet.... with that in mind do you typically tend to bet AP horses at say 8/1-16/1 EW or would they tend to be win only selections for you?

[Kevloaf]

Year on year I tend to do more and more multiples. I accept that I'll have long losing runs with them, and some years the returns won't cover the outlay, but it's my only method of winning a life changing amount.

The way I view it is that a winning single will only pay for my next few bets. A winning multiple may mean I'll never have to work again (that's the dream).

Yes, this is an excellent point.

I should have acknowledged this during the original posts...

Having seen how close it can be for a 'relatively' small amount I should perhaps increase them, or change them slightly from 'realistic' multiples to proper life changing multiples.

I without a doubt don't put on enough bets that return 6 figure amounts. I bet it's only a handful a year or the ones that are for tiny stakes but ridiculous returns.

[Kevloaf]

Hello Kev, wanted to ask you around your EW approach. Obviously they are 2 separate bets and presumably for you to place an EW bet you must view the place bet to be value as well as the win bet.... with that in mind do you typically tend to bet AP horses at say 8/1-16/1 EW or would they tend to be win only selections for you?

I'd usually steer away from anything less than 16/1 as an each way bet.

Not a blanket rule, as if I'm confident on the target and the lack of depth in a race I'd consider it.



If I identify a race may have a lack of DEPTH (as in horses I feel actually have a chance of winning are 3 or less) then I'd consider each way on some shorter prices....

but as with everything it's case-by-case.


The Arkle and the Marsh chase I'd consider each way bets on a horse if they were a shorter price and I knew the target... no specific examples yet but I hope that answers your question?

[Istabraq]

Not the way I went in the Triumph as it's not a race that really lends itself as well as others becasue you'd need to do too many, the 40/1 on Burning Victory was not as random as you are potentially implying (but I get what your point/question is)


This was my Triumph ante post play. All 1 pt or (2 pts if e/w)

Triumph
Solo 25/1 e/w (NRNB) and 20/1 e/w (NRNB)
Burning Victory 40/1 e/w (NRNB)

.... I also had free bets on Cerberus and A Wave Of The Sea...



The pokes I did have were Homer and Monte Cristo both cashed out after flops.

So in this case, I think I'd have had Burning Victory regardless, as it was highlighted as the likely only Mullins runner, whilst unbeaten...

Yes apologies Kev, I must have misread your original piece and assumed Burning Ambition was a dart.

As for 6 figure multi’s that payment is nowhere near big enough for FM...