Mares Hurdle 2021

[ComplyOrDie]

From what I know of the people involved, if (and I'm not!) I was doing a book on which race she'd go for, it would be:

1/2 Mares Hurdle
3/1 Stayers Hurdle
3/1 Mares Chase
25/1 Any other race

I'd probably go:

4/7 Mares Hurdle
2/1 Stayers
5/1 Mares Chase
28/1 Any other

I know she's done a bit over fences before, but that was 2018, I just wouldn't expect them to decide to go over fences now, at this stage of her career. Doing the race odds I was so close to having her shorter even more for the Stayers than what I would already go.

[archie]

They are creatures of habit at Closutton and the defeat to Honeysuckle still rankles. I think they'll go the Quevega route and move up in trip for the Punchestown stayers and/or the French Champion hurdle.

[Saxon Warrior]

They are creatures of habit at Closutton and the defeat to Honeysuckle still rankles. I think they'll go the Quevega route and move up in trip for the Punchestown stayers and/or the French Champion hurdle.

I am with you on it being odds on fav that BDD ends up in the Mares Hurdle, as it stands today.

[Spectre]

I know you're involvement and closeness Archie, and I agree with the 'creatures of habit' sentiment. But the habit has always been the easiest race. I think without doubt that's the Mares Chase which is as close to a penalty kick as she'd get.

My book would be more like:

Mares Hurdle 6/4
Mares Chase 6/4
Stayers Hurdle 6/1
Gold Cup 12/1

[Istabraq]

I know you're involvement and closeness Archie, and I agree with the 'creatures of habit' sentiment. But the habit has always been the easiest race. I think without doubt that's the Mares Chase which is as close to a penalty kick as she'd get.

My book would be more like:

Mares Chase 6/4
Mares Chase 6/4
Stayers Hurdle 6/1
Gold Cup 12/1

I’m assuming a typo there Spectre...

[Lobos]

Just looking at Benie's previous Chase form and it's interesting to see that she won a 21/2 mile Mares Chase at Carlisle on just her 2nd start for Mullins 339 days after her first run. Her first run/win for Mullins (also in a Mares Chase)was fully 396 after she last ran in France. This lends to the theory that she could go straight to the Mares Chase next March without a run.

[Spectre]

I’m assuming a typo there Spectre...

Thanks I. Corrected above.

[Istabraq]

Thanks I. Corrected above.

Wasn’t sure if it was a piss take to emphasise a point !

[Istabraq]

It’s worth remembering that French NH horses are jumping hurdles at 2 and fences if not the same time then very shortly after, so when they transfer to UK/Ireland they are well ahead of those horses bred on these shores and they’re well qualified/trained to jump whatever obstacle appears in front of them.
Archie says it over and over again, Mullins will run his horses in the race they have the best chance of winning and in the case of BDD you can’t get away from the fact that is the Mares hurdle...

[KingSprinterSacre]

I think she will run in the mares hurdle again because i dont believe she will go chasing again. But i dont think its fact that it would be the easiest race to win? Id have mares chase as much the easiest as she wont face anything of the calibre of honeysuckle.

By ease to win id rank mares chase first, then mares hurdle then finally the stayers hurdle. But i believe it more likely she runs in either hurdle over the mares chase.

[Istabraq]

No-one knows the conditions of the Mares chase KSS, as a multiple G1 winner she may have penalties to carry....

[SharpHat]

No-one knows the conditions of the Mares chase KSS, as a multiple G1 winner she may have penalties to carry....

There's a long, long way to go, its impossible to say which race will be 'easier' at this stage. I could easilly see her lining up again against Honeysuckle, but i could also see her going off at oddson in the chase. Just not enough info to go on yet, best plan is to back both. Or neither. do what you want.

[KingSprinterSacre]

No-one knows the conditions of the Mares chase KSS, as a multiple G1 winner she may have penalties to carry....

True Ista, but in that case (unknown conditions) its also inaccurate to say we cant get away from the fact that the mares hurdle will be an easier race.

I realise here that im also arguing the case against the race i believe she will end up in haha, as ultimately i believe it will be the mares hurdle

[Lobos]

Tis true Benie sorry, Mullins will go for the easiest option. At this moment in time , with Honey staying hurdling and PTKO going Champion Chase, the easiest option on paper is clearly the Mares Chase. I think there are 2 huge factors that come into play here....1) Will they risk Benie over fences in what will almost definitely be her last Cheltenham festival before making little Benies and 2) where will Honey end up. If Honey goes Mares Hurdle again then imo Benie will go Mares Chase or Stayers. If Honey goes Churdle then imo Benie will go Mares Hurdle. It's just too hard to call. What we all know now without a doubt is that her current odds in the Mares Chase at 14/1, should she end up there, will be blown out of the water. If Mullins came out and said her target now she'd be around 5/2 for the Mares Hurdle, 3/1 for the Stayers and 6/4 for the Mares Chase.

[archie]

She's 14/1 for the Mares Chase because they know that, at this moment in time, the plan is not that race.