Champion Hurdle 2021

[Middle_Of_March]

I think when assessing any second season chaser or hurdler, we need to assess what 'ceiling' on ratings we think each horse has.

Goshen's ceiling could be anything. It could be 150, it could be 175, nothing has got close to him yet, to begin to know.

COF has ran in 8 hurdles races.
Fell or BD three times
3rd twice
2nd twice
1st once

Its a potentially narrower ceiling over hurdles for him now notwithstanding that he can improve further.
If he is 146 now and raced latterly over 2M4F and above, and if he stayed over hurdles, maybe a ceiling of 160 is possible.

He could be Gordys Pertemps horse if campaigned for it, and aim to be rated by UK handicapper at below 150.
If his ceiling is 160 over hurdles it would be great to see him run off 145-149 in the Pertemps.

This is the sort of post that makes FJ so good.

Clever thinking. Now let’s see if Gordy has the same idea.

Though the Pertemps this year I thought we had sussed with The Storyteller at 14s. Was the most obvious plot ever. And then he got beat by one from his own yard.

[Lobos]

Gone against my heart and with the head and backed Honeysuckle for the Churdle. 16/1 is just a silly price and too big to ignore. If she wins the Irish Churdle again then for me she is odds on to go for the big one at the fez. Also gone with my heart and against my head and backed Malone Road at 66/1 for the 2 mile crown.

[Kevloaf]

Gone against my heart and with the head and backed Honeysuckle for the Churdle. 16/1 is just a silly price and too big to ignore. If she wins the Irish Churdle again then for me she is odds on to go for the big one at the fez. Also gone with my heart and against my head and backed Malone Road at 66/1 for the 2 mile crown.

If she wins it.

That race is in Feb 2021 - we're in August 2020.

There would be a 'special' to win ICH and CH at near enough those odds on the morning of the race I reckon from past experience.

You sure you've used your head?

It sounds to me like you've backed two unlikely runners for the Champion Hurdle, in August. Totting up those 'non-runners' nice and early.... then again, you've got no diary so we'll never know

[Lobos]

If she wins it.

That race is in Feb 2021 - we're in August 2020.

There would be a 'special' to win ICH and CH at near enough those odds on the morning of the race I reckon from past experience.

You sure you've used your head?

It sounds to me like you've backed two unlikely runners for the Champion Hurdle, in August. Totting up those 'non-runners' nice and early.... then again, you've got no diary so we'll never know

What price do people think Honeysuckle would be if they said she was going for that race now? 6/1 maybe ? I've been caught out before relying on 'specials' like that with horses pulled out late, falling during race and meetings being called off so learnt that's a dangerous game to play. Rather get on now and know where I am.

[Kevloaf]

What price do people think Honeysuckle would be if they said she was going for that race now? 6/1 maybe ? I've been caught out before relying on 'specials' like that with horses pulled out late, falling during race and meetings being called off so learnt that's a dangerous game to play. Rather get on now and know where I am.

If she was 6/1, that's 62.5% shorter that the currently 16/1.

So I suppose the question is, what percentage chance do you give her of turning up there? Would you say it 37.5% or greater? A bit more often than 1 in 3 times?



That of course doesn't include the fudge factor of her not turning up at all.... which is a sizeable chunk.

[KingSprinterSacre]

Was happy to play this game at 40/1 last year.
Not playing at 16s when she won the Irish champion last year and still didnt go to the champion hurdle

[Lobos]

Was happy to play this game at 40/1 last year.
Not playing at 16s when she won the Irish champion last year and still didnt go to the champion hurdle

Connections have already said though that she may take a different route to last season after the Irish Champion. For me that can only mean one thing. Win there and odds on its the Churdle. If she turned up at the Fez still unbeaten then I think the weight of Irish money would make her fav. Envoi apart, she is without doubt the most exciting jump horse around at this moment in time.

[Ray]

Even with benie in it the mares hurdle is a penalty kick for honeysuckle

[Istabraq]

Even with benie in it the mares hurdle is a penalty kick for honeysuckle

Some shout that....

[Lobos]

Even with benie in it the mares hurdle is a penalty kick for honeysuckle

Agreed. Unless it comes up deep ground I don't see any way Benie reverses last seasons result....even with Heavy ground I wouldn't favour Benie. However, if, as I now suspect, Honey goes Churdle next March then Benie no doubt go off fav again. Even then I think she would get turned over either by Dame De Compagnie or Concertista. Benie should go Mares Chase or Stayers..........will they though?........I doubt it.

[billymag]

Really Lobos you dont see any way Benie would reverse the form, any way?? What if shes in season, what if she hits a hurdle, what if she gets blocked on the turn and Benie gets a dream run Benie is more than good enough to take advantage of those situations if she holds her form.

[taylorch1990]

Really Lobos you dont see any way Benie would reverse the form, any way?? What if shes in season, what if she hits a hurdle, what if she gets blocked on the turn and Benie gets a dream run Benie is more than good enough to take advantage of those situations if she holds her form.

I tend to agree with Lobos on this one. Watching this years race back I don't think honeysuckle really stole the race as was suggested at first I just think she's the better horse. With another year I'd expect Honeysuckle to improve again whereas I can't see Benie improving. I also don't think Benies at her best at Cheltenham. I wouldn't go as far to say there's no way she could reverse the form but I don't personally think she would barring any mistakes.

[Spectre]

And I have a third opinion. They are so closely matched whichever one has luck in running and/or turns up in the best form wins.

[Saxon Warrior]

Just noted, after typing my message below, that we’re on the wrong thread with this.

Looking at Honeysuckle and BDD they both come into 2M4F as polar opposites.

Honeysuckle from 2M Grade 1 alternatives and Benie from 3M’s.

I don’t think BDD would have won an Irish Champion Hurdle, but I do think she would have romped home in last season Stayers Hurdle, by a minute.

IMO, Looking at them both over 2M4F, I don’t know why Honeysuckle couldnt repeat last season, if they both have a similar journey through the race. It would take errors or poor judgement/luck for Honeysuckle to be unable to use her better speed (2M Grade 1 pace v 3M Grade 1 pace) to get to the front.

Willies stable whinging about Honeysuckle getting a run up the inner was a poor excuse. Benie had a fantastic run on the shoulder of the leaderinto the straight and was outpaced coming into the bend and couldn’t make up the ground despite having over 2F to do it.
It wasn’t bad luck, it was one very good mare beating another for pace at a key time.

Given Benie will be 10 shortly, I don’t see her improving beyond Honeysuckle‘s potential improvement.

[billymag]

Without dwelling on this, Im not saying honeysuckle didnt deserve to win on the day, but to say you dont see any way that the form could be reversed with all the variables of a horse race doesnt make any sense with two horses that were separated by 1/2 a length.