Champion Hurdle 2021

[Humble Pie]

Doing a little back track on this statement.

Just watching that Supreme back again and I'm getting more and more convinced that Abacadabras just looks like a Champion Hurdler.


Getting beaten in a Supreme didn't do Buveur D'air any harm, and it's not ridiculous in suggesting he can take a step forward again. Plenty of very good horses have been beaten in the Supreme before.


The odds are shorter than I want them to be, but I don't think he's going to be very far away at all.


It'll be easy for people to knock, as he didn't win his Supreme so we could certainly argue Shishkin is a better horse...but not by a lot at all.

Also, just looking back at when Envoi Allen beat him, he didn't beat him on the snaff at all... Abacadabras did look to have the race won.

If he can mature again over this summer I think he could end up being the best of the Irish by the time we get to 2021, and while I can't bring myself to back him in a single... I do want to



I'm not saying he's value particularly, but I do think he's going to be fucking good next year and I kind of dismissed him because of the price but he's closer to 'correct price' than 'too short'

Well said Kev

I’m a big fan of Aba’s and won’t be far away at the business end come March 2021 IMO

I’m happy with my 16’s , less so with my 10’s , yes Donut bet as should have gone in fully first bet and not “ topped up”
But like all our ante post bets , a long long way to go

Cmon ABA’as

[ComplyOrDie]

Well said Kev

I’m a big fan of Aba’s and won’t be far away at the business end come March 2021 IMO

I’m happy with my 16’s , less so with my 10’s , yes Donut bet as should have gone in fully first bet and not “ topped up”
But like all our ante post bets , a long long way to go

Cmon ABA’as

16's is a cracking price! I could only muster up 10's but still happy with it. He's a fair horse alright. One I didn't give enough credit too pre-festival (despite backing him at 16's for the Sup), but held my hands up afterwards. Travels well, hurdles well, big chance. Just get up that hill!

[EnvoyAllen]

Market as of 22/5/2020




I personally won't entertain a bet on Goshen at 5/1 whilst Epatante is 4/1 - which isn't to say Goshen can't end up thrashing her, but with only 1 pt difference I just wouldn't be able to have that much 'faith' at single figure odds. Obviously I'm not backing Epatante at single figure odds either, but if I had to place a bet it'd be on the one that had the form in the book at those prices.

Abacadabras at 8/1 would fall in the same category, so whilst I like him and can see it as a possibility he wins the Champion Hurdle, he's only double the price of Epatante and that doesn't look like value either.

Then Envoi Allen, Shishkin and Honeysuckle are quoted at less than 20/1 a piece, but I don't think there is any chance at all Honeysuckle would run here. The other two I'm anticipating being Novice Chasers, however if they weren't I'd look to take the 14/1 and 16/1 just because they being double the price of Abacadbras would be wrong. I imagine the moment the news broke though the odds would be slashed... (you'd hope they'd push Abacadbras out but wishful thinking no doubt)

Then it's 4x Willie Mullins horses Saldier, Saint Roi, Sharjah and Benie Des Dieux at 25/1 along with previous winner Buveur D'air. Striking BDD off the list who won't be in the race the other 4 have cases to be made at 25/1.

Chantry House and Concertista are 33/1 and it's 40/1 bar.


The four horses in bold interest me the most at the moment with a view to making a book...but I'll go in to that more in the diary whenever I do.




Looks like we've got a very healthy amount to debate in this race though, Saint Roi, Goshen and Epatante have already taken up plenty of pages so let's get it all in one place

The very large majority of your analysis, and judgement is very good on here Kev, but I would like to offer an alternative view on what you consider Goshen to ‘not be entertained’ and you’ve also mentioned is a ‘hype horse’.

Arriving at Cheltenham (a championship race against the best 4 year olds from all sides of the pond, with which barring a freak mistake, he would have won by let’s say, 10 lengths?), his winning margins were spectacular. Huge distances. He arrived as a ‘hype’ horse, and treated us to exactly why he is that. Surely equine superstars such as Frankel, Enable and the like are talked about with such elan, only on the specific reason they destroy good fields in class 1 races because of their brilliance? Hype 99% of the time comes because of sporting performance?

The market below Goshen apart from Abacadras has Envoi Allen, Shishkin & Honeysuckle - all three most analysts and commentators would say at this precise moment aren’t Champion Hurdle bound - then we’ve got Benie Des Deux who had the chance of her life to run in this year’s, but didn’t. Her chance I would suggest, has fallen by the wayside. Beveur D’air will be 10, which would put doubt in most punters minds.

So if, at present, we can discount those 5 horses directly below Goshen in the market as ‘unlikely’ to run in the Champion Hurdle, I would suggest the 5/1 on offer for a horse that is very well proven in ‘novice‘ company, and has it’s target pretty much confirmed by owner and trainer, as a very sound price?

I’m not for any second saying he’ll win the event - nobody can - but to call Goshen a ‘hype’ horse is discrediting it’s form and superior winning distances over the months preceding the festival.

Just of course, an alternative look at a price.

[Hardy Eustace]

The very large majority of your analysis, and judgement is very good on here Kev, but I would like to offer an alternative view on what you consider Goshen to ‘not be entertained’ and you’ve also mentioned is a ‘hype horse’.

Arriving at Cheltenham (a championship race against the best 4 year olds from all sides of the pond, with which barring a freak mistake, he would have won by let’s say, 10 lengths?), his winning margins were spectacular. Huge distances. He arrived as a ‘hype’ horse, and treated us to exactly why he is that. Surely equine superstars such as Frankel, Enable and the like are talked about with such elan, only on the specific reason they destroy good fields in class 1 races because of their brilliance? Hype 99% of the time comes because of sporting performance?

The market below Goshen apart from Abacadras has Envoi Allen, Shishkin & Honeysuckle - all three most analysts and commentators would say at this precise moment aren’t Champion Hurdle bound - then we’ve got Benie Des Deux who had the chance of her life to run in this year’s, but didn’t. Her chance I would suggest, has fallen by the wayside. Beveur D’air will be 10, which would put doubt in most punters minds.

So if, at present, we can discount those 5 horses directly below Goshen in the market as ‘unlikely’ to run in the Champion Hurdle, I would suggest the 5/1 on offer for a horse that is very well proven in ‘novice‘ company, and has it’s target pretty much confirmed by owner and trainer, as a very sound price?

I’m not for any second saying he’ll win the event - nobody can - but to call Goshen a ‘hype’ horse is discrediting it’s form and superior winning distances over the months preceding the festival.

Just of course, an alternative look at a price.

I agree that Goshen could be very good. The problem I have though is his price. Would you rather have the reigning champion who will be getting 7lbs at a point shorter or would you rather have a horse untested outside of 4 year old company at a point bigger? For me it is a no brainer.

[ComplyOrDie]

As one of Goshens, self proclaimed, biggest fans on here, the step out of juvenile company is enormous, and should not be underestimated.

What he was about to do to the Triumph field, was, largely expected, for me, but I would have doubts, until proven, going in to open company company.

Double figures would be fair, he's half that now, but he should be a bigger price than Abacadabras IMO.

[Hardy Eustace]

As one of Goshens, self proclaimed, biggest fans on here, the step out of juvenile company is enormous, and should not be underestimated.

What he was about to do to the Triumph field, was, largely expected, for me, but I would have doubts, until proven, going in to open company company.

Double figures would be fair, he's half that now, but he should be a bigger price than Abacadabras IMO.

I agree with that. If i could get 12s or 10s on the horse i probably would put a 1pt or 2 on it - I just cant bring myself to doing it ar 5's. Even at 12-10/1ish I would still be backing it more out of hope of what it could do rather than what it has done.

[EnvoyAllen]

Or (and I didn’t wish to mention this in essence), you could have taken the 40/1 on him to win the Champion Hurdle, the day before he so nearly won the Triumph. That’s why I don’t need to touch the 5/1. A tiny risk I took, but thought it worth it....(and even though I took the 40’s, I still believe the 5’s is very reasonable).

[Hardy Eustace]

Or (and I didn’t wish to mention this in essence), you could have taken the 40/1 on him to win the Champion Hurdle, the day before he so nearly won the Triumph. That’s why I don’t need to touch the 5/1. A tiny risk I took, but thought it worth it....(and even though I took the 40’s, I still believe the 5’s is very reasonable).

Nice. You’re sitting pretty at 40’s ��

[Priceiskey]

Or (and I didn’t wish to mention this in essence), you could have taken the 40/1 on him to win the Champion Hurdle, the day before he so nearly won the Triumph. That’s why I don’t need to touch the 5/1. A tiny risk I took, but thought it worth it....(and even though I took the 40’s, I still believe the 5’s is very reasonable).

Yes I took the 40s also but doubled up with Shiskin because I’m a greedy F*****

[ComplyOrDie]

Or (and I didn’t wish to mention this in essence), you could have taken the 40/1 on him to win the Champion Hurdle, the day before he so nearly won the Triumph. That’s why I don’t need to touch the 5/1. A tiny risk I took, but thought it worth it....(and even though I took the 40’s, I still believe the 5’s is very reasonable).

I'm usually too engrossed in the week/day to bother looking at that far ahead, but a lovely position to be in all the same

[Saxon Warrior]

Or (and I didn’t wish to mention this in essence), you could have taken the 40/1 on him to win the Champion Hurdle, the day before he so nearly won the Triumph. That’s why I don’t need to touch the 5/1. A tiny risk I took, but thought it worth it....(and even though I took the 40’s, I still believe the 5’s is very reasonable).

Yes, he was 40s with one firm on the morning of the Triumph, and closed into 33/1 with them before I walked up to the track.

As I dont back shorties, it made sense to me to take both of those Champion Hurdle prices, rather than the 5/2 to win the Triumph.

As with any antepost bet any good thoughts about those bets can go up in smoke at any time.

[Kevloaf]

The very large majority of your analysis, and judgement is very good on here Kev, but I would like to offer an alternative view on what you consider Goshen to ‘not be entertained’ and you’ve also mentioned is a ‘hype horse’.

Arriving at Cheltenham (a championship race against the best 4 year olds from all sides of the pond, with which barring a freak mistake, he would have won by let’s say, 10 lengths?), his winning margins were spectacular. Huge distances. He arrived as a ‘hype’ horse, and treated us to exactly why he is that. Surely equine superstars such as Frankel, Enable and the like are talked about with such elan, only on the specific reason they destroy good fields in class 1 races because of their brilliance? Hype 99% of the time comes because of sporting performance?

The market below Goshen apart from Abacadras has Envoi Allen, Shishkin & Honeysuckle - all three most analysts and commentators would say at this precise moment aren’t Champion Hurdle bound - then we’ve got Benie Des Deux who had the chance of her life to run in this year’s, but didn’t. Her chance I would suggest, has fallen by the wayside. Beveur D’air will be 10, which would put doubt in most punters minds.

So if, at present, we can discount those 5 horses directly below Goshen in the market as ‘unlikely’ to run in the Champion Hurdle, I would suggest the 5/1 on offer for a horse that is very well proven in ‘novice‘ company, and has it’s target pretty much confirmed by owner and trainer, as a very sound price?

I’m not for any second saying he’ll win the event - nobody can - but to call Goshen a ‘hype’ horse is discrediting it’s form and superior winning distances over the months preceding the festival.

Just of course, an alternative look at a price.

It's a combination of a few things brother.

With regards to horses around him in the market, that has less relevance for me now because there is no way the bookies have the race priced at anything even close to 117% (which is their usual over-round)... if two of those were declared as going chasing over night it wouldn't automatically mean he'd shorten.

The 'hype' bit is because the merit of the form still is unproven (which is no fault of Goshen's) but at the moment he's priced as if he'd have won the Supreme, and I don't think he would have as convincingly as those odds suggest. I don't think I'm discrediting the form harshly, at the moment the form isn't proven so I could perhaps argue that you (people/bookies placing him 5/1) are giving it too much credit. We just don't know how strong the juveniles were as a group. What is not in doubt is that he was the best of them... but over and over again the vibes and comments were the Irish had a very weak crop and that left Allmankind as the leading hope... who is trained by a bullish trainer who may well be over playing his ability too.

I also dislike the fact he's going for flat races as targets in terms of a Champion Hurdle 'prep'. Just because they've said that is the plan, doesn't mean that is the best way to peak in March and I'd be wary of whether Gary Moore has the credientials to perform what would be an absolutely extraordinary training performance. It certianly hasn't happened in my horse racing lifetime, with Overturn being about the best I can think of albeit slightly different circumstances.


If I was forced to, I'd say I do expect Goshen to live up to the hype... and genuinly I hope he does, because he'll be a superstar. I just discredit that his Triumph performance proves it yet...

Also, it is relative to the other prices... so Epatante at 1 point shorter has undoubtebly MUCH better, relevant form and as I said higher up, I rate the Supreme quite highly and Abacadabras is a bigger price yet has stronger form in my opinion so far. For the record I don't think Epatante or Abacadabras are 'a bet' at this stage either...but I'd back those two before I backed Goshen.



Which is why all why I can't entertain him at 5/1 - well done on the 40/1, I of course would take that and would definitely have taken that on the day had my head been in the right place. I try not to get swept up in the next years before this year is done but not for any logical reason.

[Scooby91]

Well said Kev

I’m a big fan of Aba’s and won’t be far away at the business end come March 2021 IMO

I’m happy with my 16’s , less so with my 10’s , yes Donut bet as should have gone in fully first bet and not “ topped up”
But like all our ante post bets , a long long way to go

Cmon ABA’as

He is still 8/1(hills) I think that's more than fair and im well aware that will be gone by the time I can get on so I may as well put him up at that price before it goes. And take the lower price myself when shops open.

Abacadabras......

https://scooby91horseracingtips.wordpress.com/2020/05/31/example-post-3/

[Lobos]

He is still 8/1(hills) I think that's more than fair and im well aware that will be gone by the time I can get on so I may as well put him up at that price before it goes. And take the lower price myself when shops open.

Abacadabras......
https://scooby91horseracingtips.word...xample-post-3/

Nice write up. Whilst he has a lot going for him form wise and the fact he is fairly certain to target the Churdle I have this feeling Aba is going to be one of those that just keeps finding one too good for him at The Festival. Can't argue that he's a decent price based on what we've seen and I'm sure he'll shorten up after picking up some of the early season Irish big 2 mile races but I don't see him being victorious come March. Epatante and Saint Roi are my two with Concertista if she heads that way .

[Scooby91]

Nice write up. Whilst he has a lot going for him form wise and the fact he is fairly certain to target the Churdle I have this feeling Aba is going to be one of those that just keeps finding one too good for him at The Festival. Can't argue that he's a decent price based on what we've seen and I'm sure he'll shorten up after picking up some of the early season Irish big 2 mile races but I don't see him being victorious come March. Epatante and Saint Roi are my two with Concertista if she heads that way .

I wouldn't knock Saint Roi, he could be absolutely anything. He's a real hard one to make judgement on as he was clearly laid out for the county and what that amounts to, we won't find out for a while.

Just going through darver star you'd have to think abacadabras wouldn't have been far off as a Novice. And you'd like to think he can improve and may already have since Christmas time. To what he ran in the supreme, his jumping has certainly improved throughout the season.