Hills TWAR Movers & Shakers

[Kevloaf]

Bear Ghylls green at the last and an exciting horse but the winner of the first division was arguably more impressive in a strongly run race when you run the two divisions simultaneously. The runner up seemed to be traveling all over the winner up to the last too so was quite impressive to shoe a clean pair of heels from the last.

I think Bear Ghylls would be a good horse if he was in a capable trainers/jockeys hands. He's like Sam Spinner, I'll fall for him even though I know full well he'll come up short in the big festivals.

There is a reason we have power house trainers, owners and jockeys - and it's because they get the best out of horses.

Hopefully he's an anamoly as it's always nice to see, but I'm not backing him at the moment as I can't be sure he'll get the improvement he needs to still look that good in March and beyond.

[Outlaw]

I think Bear Ghylls would be a good horse if he was in a capable trainers/jockeys hands. He's like Sam Spinner, I'll fall for him even though I know full well he'll come up short in the big festivals.

There is a reason we have power house trainers, owners and jockeys - and it's because they get the best out of horses.

Hopefully he's an anamoly as it's always nice to see, but I'm not backing him at the moment as I can't be sure he'll get the improvement he needs to still look that good in March and beyond.

Yeah i hear you, was always going to be popular after the bumper win, main rival didn't turn up that day and was keen to see him again today. We know he goes through the mud and seemingly gallops well so stamina doesn't look an issue, it was just interesting comparing the divisions. I hope he is really good thou as you've touched on as good ones with "smaller" trainers often become great stories.

[Pendil]

I think Bear Ghylls would be a good horse if he was in a capable trainers/jockeys hands. He's like Sam Spinner, I'll fall for him even though I know full well he'll come up short in the big festivals.

There is a reason we have power house trainers, owners and jockeys - and it's because they get the best out of horses.

Hopefully he's an anamoly as it's always nice to see, but I'm not backing him at the moment as I can't be sure he'll get the improvement he needs to still look that good in March and beyond.

I backed him today and have him for the Ballymore/Bartlett. I would be happier if he was sold and moved to another stable. Those days of smaller stables winning G1 are gone?

[Kevloaf]

I backed him today and have him for the Ballymore/Bartlett. I would be happier if he was sold and moved to another stable. Those days of smaller stables winning G1 are gone?

Never say never, we'll always have anomalies. If I'd already backed him I wouldn't be upset at all, he's clearly good (in my original post I said "would be a good horse" which is wrong as he's already good)... but having not backed him, I don't want to take the price that is there currently.

He just fits into that category of not being a priority at the moment.

[Spectre]

I see him as this seasons Kalashnikov. He'll be one that will turn up in the good novice hurdles and be overpriced, so the way to make money off him is back him in his runs prior to the Festival. Even if he remains unbeaten he'll remain backable because he's not with Willie, Nicky, or Gordon, so just play up some winnings if you still fancy him come March.

[Kevloaf]

I'll highlight this as some people will very much enjoy how wrong I was earlier in this thread

Great work Lobos - I'm totally with you in this debate.

The argument about whether Galvin is better value for the Galway Plate at 10s than for any race at the Festival at 20s is totally beside the point in my book.

No horse has won the Plate carrying 11 stone or more since double victor Ansar in 2005. So IMO Galvin might be a couple of pounds higher than you'd like for the Plate - assuming he doesn't get a penalty for his facile win the other day. But 10-1 sounds like decent value because, as Kev said, he's obviously going to be in it to win a huge pot not protect his handicap mark.

But I reckon Galvin has only 2 viable alternatives at the Festival - the Ultima or The NH Chase. Surely his mark is going to be too high to get in the Kim Muir.

The Ultima is not a handicap that Gordon particularly targets. In the last 5 years he's saddled five runners (4 unplaced, 1 third). It's always competitive and the chances are Galvin would have to carry 11-stone minimum, more if he performs well in the Plate or anywhere else before the Festival. No way will Gordon see that as a gimmee.

So I'm prepared to gamble he doesn't end up in the Ultima.

What's more, the NH Chase market at the moment is a lovely betting opportunity because it's highly likely that none of the market leaders will turn up. The top four in the betting are Monkfish, Thyme Hill, Fury Road and Latest Exhibition. NH Chase for any of these - really? Surely they will all be aiming higher.

And Galvin neatly fits the profile of what you are looking for to win the NH Chase since it became a Grade 2 four years ago. The last four winners were all pretty experienced over fences: 6,5,10,10 for the number of previous chases (latest on left). The Plate will be Galvin's sixth chase.

I know a lot of people are on Aione at great prices and I've already had a punt on Janidil at 50-1. But neither they nor many of the other interesting outsiders have jumped a fence yet. Galvin not only has the chasing experience but he's jumped round Cheltenham and proven himself in two Festival races. I'm not nearly as dismissive as some of that 6th place in the Ballymore - that was a hot race and Galvin just got outpaced at the business end.

Gordon's won 3 of the last six runnings of the NH Chase - two of them with seven-year-olds. Galvin will be seven next year.

I backed him in the Northern Trust and was disappointed with his run at the time. But rewatching it today he stays on very nicely up the hill but just doesn't have the pace to match Imperial Aura. The third horse was 9 lengths further back which has to be a plus for Galvin.

I got Hills to add Galvin to their NH Chase market today (though now I see Faugheen may have beaten me to it) and they've put him in at 33-1 (36.7-1 with boost) and I'm on for 2pts each way.

If Galvin turns up with Jamie Codd on his back you're probably not going to get 5-1.

And one betting strategy would be to back him for the Plate and the NH Chase, using the Plate bet to cover the Festival stake.

In my defense, in bold...

Why can't Galvin end up in the Marsh Chase or the RSA if he can run in the NH Chase or Ultima as the only two options?!




If he ends up weith Codd on his back, quite the leap? How many horses could we say that about right now?! He rode Le Breuil in 2019 didn't he!



The owner having Rathvinden and the trainer having a good record in the race... okay.... has Galvin looked like he wants the trip? If Lobos' theory is right about the NH Chase being right, back that..... having the 'back up' of him running elsewhere at 20/1 isn't good value.

Are you really willing to hope all this falls into place at odds of 20/1 (with the back up of you not losing your moeny if the targets wrong)



If you could get 25/1 with a cashout for NHC that is a better bet than 20/1 TWAR.

If people want to gamble that the NH Chase is right at 33/1, okay.... I think it's more likely you've backed a non runner but at least 33/1 is a price.... I wouldn't evne knock that as much as the 20/1 TWAR!


20/1, hoping he gets Codd on and ends up in the NH Chase, right now, is a bad bet.



Out of principle, I'll make sure I am on Galvin at bigger than 20/1 in no matter what he runs in. I am so confident I'll be able to do that. It is craaaaaaaaaaaaazy to be getting as giddy as you all are about him.


He isn't even that fucking good.





The fact he's 10/1 for a race targetted at in a few weeks isn't "the point", it just highlights that 20/1 8 months away is a bizarre way to consider yourelf a shrewdie.





This is great fun isn't it hahaha, I'll back off though now and concentrate on the flat today... I'll pick this up later when I look forward to all the people disagreeing with me

Followed through on that, at least


Well played though chaps

[Ballyfitz]

Fusil Raffles in to 14/1 - thought he looked impressive enough there. I was assuming Marsh before that but not so sure now...

[charlie]

Fusil Raffles in to 14/1 - thought he looked impressive enough there. I was assuming Marsh before that but not so sure now...

I'm on at 27's for the Arkle and today did little to persuade me he's up to that class.

[Eggs]

...Andy Dufresne into 12 from 14-1.

[Eggs]

....Quilixios 12s into 10-1.

[Eggs]

...Janidil 14-1 from 20s.

[Eggs]

.....Keskonrisk 20-1 from 25-1.

[Eggs]

....Star Gate 16-1 from 25-1.

[Eggs]

....Shadow Rider into 20-1 from 33-1 after its win today.

[Eggs]

.....Stattler 16-1 from 25s.