Hills TWAR Movers & Shakers

[Lobos]

If you like stats then find a Flemensfirth progeny who has won the Supreme. He’s been one of the most prolific and longest serving sires in NH but I don’t think he’s sired the winner or even had many place either.

Not really one for stats, just go on visuals but take your point.

[Lobos]

The "you-need-a-stayer-to-win-the-Supreme" fan club won't be disappointed though

Klassical Dream did ok

[Kevloaf]

Klassical Dream did ok

Have I missed the season where he's gone on to prove he's a Stayer?

[Lobos]

Have I missed the season where he's gone on to prove he's a Stayer?

Lol ! It was just his Stayers entry last season that intrigued me.

[Hardy Eustace]

Quilixios 12's from 16's.

[nortonscoin200]

A certain horse won his first novice chase during a long summer racing campaign in 2016 , winning at Killarney along the way and unseated when fav at that years Galway Festival. The following March that horse ran away with the NHC. The horses name.....Tiger Roll. Ravenhill took a similar route before winning this year's race. Cause of Causes ran all summer long again taking in Killarney and the Galway Festival before finishing a close 2nd in the Kim Muir in 2014. Hang on a minute....Chicago Grey won the 2011 NHC after another summer trip round the Irish tracks visiting Killarney and the Galway Festival. So shock horror, Gordon , who trained all these animals does have a peculiar history of preparing horses for the festival in this way. How strange. Can lightning strike again with Galvin ???? Perhaps it's not all guesswork with me after all.

You told us on July 9 Lobos - hats off for a fantastic piece of research.

Now it's hopefully in the hands of Codd!!

[Can't Catch Me]

Yes well done Lobos. Great spot

[Hardy Eustace]

Great work Lobos, the world is watching... Galvin was cut last night from 16's to 14's, he has been cut again this morning from 14's into 12's.

Still 14's for the NHC.

[Hardy Eustace]

The gamble continues...

Galvin was 12's now 10's.

Having halved in price, this makes him the joint biggest price cut. He joins PTKO, Sir Gerhard and Ferny Hollow who, like Galvin, have all halved in price.
Worth noting though that Ferny can be backed in Skybet's TWAR market at 8's and PTKO at 12's (which is bigger than the biggest Mares Chase price).

[Istabraq]

Re Galvin, I can’t see him quoted in the RSA betting and he has been quoted as targeting the NH Chase so what other race could he possible go for ?
I’m all for playing percentages/covers but it doesn’t look like Galvin can land anywhere else...

[Hardy Eustace]

Re Galvin, I can’t see him quoted in the RSA betting and he has been quoted as targeting the NH Chase so what other race could he possible go for ?
I’m all for playing percentages/covers but it doesn’t look like Galvin can land anywhere else...

I agree, having been given the NHC as the target it is very unlikely he will go anywhere else. The cut follows hills clipping him for the NHC from 14's to 12's yesterday afternoon so this is just making sure the TWAR price is less than that.

I suppose there is probably a very small % chance that he ends up in a handicap. Afterall, Ravenhill switched from the Kim Muir to this race last year. That said, Galvin is too high for the Kim Muir but could get into the Ultima or the Plate. I can't see it happening myself but there is a small chance plans change.

[Lobos]

Re Galvin, I can’t see him quoted in the RSA betting and he has been quoted as targeting the NH Chase so what other race could he possible go for ?
I’m all for playing percentages/covers but it doesn’t look like Galvin can land anywhere else...

I think he could possibly go somewhere else but for me he would fall just below top class which is why the 4 miler is a good fit. He'd be too high in handicaps now I fear.

[Hardy Eustace]

Zanahiyr 33's > 25's

[Hardy Eustace]

If the cap fits 20's > 12's

Cautious. Understandably cautious IMHO.

[The King Pimm]

If the cap fits 20's > 12's

Cautious. Understandably cautious IMHO.

I thought the cut in price was quite dramatic for a 3 horse beginners chase. I’m sure he’ll drift back out a bit some time soon