Cheltenham 2021 - Ante Post Bets

[Silverbirch]

Bit of chatter on here and Kev’s 21 diary as to where Ballyadam might go. It’s too early to get deep and meaningful here but I would suggest that this is one of the more straight forward conundrums - it’s where Ferny Hollow doesn’t!
Cheveley have a small but very powerful string of horses. Can’t see them racing 2 of their best prospects against each other.
To my eye it’s Ferny Supreme (he’ll risk pulling in any race over further) and therefore Ballyadam goes Ballymore. At least that’s my view with the best part of a year to go!
389/1 related double with Skybet for those who get a free bet credit this morning.. which I sadly do not!

Course Malone Road may complicate matters but I think we need to see him back on a racecourse.

Whispers that Malone road is finished :/

[Istabraq]

Whispers that Malone road is finished :/

That would be a huge shame...

[Eggs]

I'd recommend covering the alternative related double, even if it's at half stake.

....or 10-1/14-1 any race double with Hills as an insurance whilst also boosting the most likely combination.

(Edit; notice Hills aren’t letting me do that double, perhaps they have now blocked ‘any race’ multiples from the same alphabetic category).

[Saxon Warrior]

....or 10-1/14-1 any race double with Hills as an insurance whilst also boosting the most likely combination.

(Edit; notice Hills aren’t letting me do that double, perhaps they have now blocked ‘any race’ multiples from the same alphabetic category).

WH haven’t allowed Any Race multiples from the same alphabetic category before, and have only permitted differing categories, no change, Eggs.

[Kevloaf]

I'd recommend covering the alternative related double, even if it's at half stake.

Yeah, I can see the appeal of doing that.

Inevitably one won't make it but there is really nothing else to think about at the moment

[somer1]

Just playing around thinking where will Glynn be heading next year.
Seeing he has only had the one run under rules will he keep his novice status next year?

[Leman14]

Just playing around thinking where will Glynn be heading next year.
Seeing he has only had the one run under rules will he keep his novice status next year?

No. He won't be a novice next season.
As he won his one and only race, he will only be a novice until the end of this season....

He is likely to go straight over fences next season anyhow

[Faugheen_Machine]

Yeah, I can see the appeal of doing that.

Inevitably one won't make it but there is really nothing else to think about at the moment

I've done the doubles.

0.5pt Ballyadam 40s, Ferny Hollow 14s
0.5pt Ferny Hollow 14s, Ballyadam 25s

[somer1]

Not sure if any other bookie has it priced up but Coral have prices up for the mares chase next year.

[Eggs]

....adding to the confusion, Bet365 have Ballyadam 25-1 favourite for the Albert Bartlett.

[Nortons who]

QMCC 2021 thoughts.

I realise that Trends based betting is an anathema to many on here but nevertheless there are some potential pointers at least due to the visibility of the data.

With that in mind when I took an initial look at the Queen Mother Champion Chase for 2021, it seemed to me that both the winner of the Arkle (Put The Kettle On) and the winner of the 2020 QMCC (Politilogue) whilst unexpected winners,* could still figure next year.

Although others are much shorter prices based on form and potential, there are question marks currently about DDS, CPS and Altior, so I took the view that Put the Kettle on 22-1 and Politilogue 20-1 offered some value at those sort of odds.

For those who are interested the more recent relevant Trends which I bore in mind here are set out below.*

# Arkle Chase

Next Cheltenham Festival Run – 6/12 winners ran in the Queen Mother Champion Chase at the next Cheltenham festival, 3 of the 6 won, 2 placed

# QMCC

Next Cheltenham Festival Run – 8/12 winners ran in the Queen Mother Champion Chase again at the Cheltenham Festival, 2 of the 8 won, 2 placed

In my opinion, if the last 12 QMCCs are anything to go by there looks to be a reasonable chance that one of them will at least run in the 2021 QMCC and I have backed both on this basis.

[Kevloaf]

QMCC 2021 thoughts.

I realise that Trends based betting is an anathema to many on here but nevertheless there are some potential pointers at least due to the visibility of the data.

With that in mind when I took an initial look at the Queen Mother Champion Chase for 2021, it seemed to me that both the winner of the Arkle (Put The Kettle On) and the winner of the 2020 QMCC (Politilogue) whilst unexpected winners,* could still figure next year.

Although others are much shorter prices based on form and potential, there are question marks currently about DDS, CPS and Altior, so I took the view that Put the Kettle on 22-1 and Politilogue 20-1 offered some value at those sort of odds.

For those who are interested the more recent relevant Trends which I bore in mind here are set out below.*

# Arkle Chase

Next Cheltenham Festival Run – 6/12 winners ran in the Queen Mother Champion Chase at the next Cheltenham festival, 3 of the 6 won, 2 placed

# QMCC

Next Cheltenham Festival Run – 8/12 winners ran in the Queen Mother Champion Chase again at the Cheltenham Festival, 2 of the 8 won, 2 placed

In my opinion, if the last 12 QMCCs are anything to go by there looks to be a reasonable chance that one of them will at least run in the 2021 QMCC and I have backed both on this basis.

Be disappointing if you're right.

Not for your pocket of course, but if either win it next year, it's a horrible year again for the race/division.



Unless Put The Kettle On improves again another 7-10lbs.





The particular trend you've landed on lends itself to previous festival form, which is not something that anybody can deny whether they follow trends or not.

[fitzy78]

....adding to the confusion, Bet365 have Ballyadam 25-1 favourite for the Albert Bartlett.

Ballyadam by Fame and Glory out of a Bob Back mare.. all about stamina

[Istabraq]

If they stick to 2m I’d be shocked if Fakir D’Oudaries doesn’t come into the reckoning for the champion chase.
It was probably one poor jump that prevented him from winning an Arkle and of all the ante post prices the 25/1 about this ones chance looks as good a value as there is to me...

[Eggs]

If they stick to 2m I’d be shocked if Fakir D’Oudaries doesn’t come into the reckoning for the champion chase.
It was probably one poor jump that prevented him from winning an Arkle and of all the ante post prices the 25/1 about this ones chance looks as good a value as there is to me...

...PP just 14-1 is an encouraging factor for many on here.