Cheltenham 2021 - Ante Post Bets

[nortonscoin200]

Did some reading on Maries Rock myself and like the profile, her Haydock win was franked when the runner up, The Con Man, won off 135.
Sky have her 14/1 in the any race market, I’m undecided whether this offers value or not but there will need to be substantial improvement (which she may well have) for her to be competitive in a champion hurdle and the County, Mares or even M Pipe could be races they consider.
Will wait for someone to convince me...

I'll give it a go Ista.

Just had a look at Marie's Rock's career profile compared to Epatante - the gold standard they all have to match - and Saint Roi who I've been in two minds over whether to back.

The bottom line is that what Marie's Rock has achieved so far puts her ahead of Saint Roi and Epatante on the basis of their level of performance in the early part of their racing careers.

The one massive difference is obviously that Epitante and SR have gone on to become Festival winners - Epatante in the big one - and only time will tell if Marie's Rock will match their progress.

But from what we know so far it's perfectly possible Marie's Rock could scale those heights.


Epatante and Saint Roi both had an RPR of 135 after 3 runs over hurdles. Marie’s Rock is on 136 after 2 starts over timber.

Epatante’s career took off with victory in an intermediate listed hurdle on her seasonal debut at Newbury last November (rpr150) and she followed up in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton (rpr157).

It wouldn't surprise me if Nicky chose the same two races for Marie's Rock next season as her path to Cheltenham. And so far no-one could claim Epatante's early career trajectory in any way eclipses Marie's Rock.

To my mind these three horses are the most interesting betting propositions in the CH at present.

It's hard to find fault with Epatante but I'm not interested in taking 4-1 this far out.

Saint Roi looked very good winning the County but he was getting plenty of weight from Aramon and Embittered. I also have this nagging feeling that County Hurdle winners sometimes flatter to deceive when upped in grade. I could see him being placed in a CH but I'd be surprised if he won. And 25-1 is not quite tempting enough for me at this stage.

When it comes to Marie's Rock there are 4 negatives in my book: the injury which forced her to miss the Festival, the reliability of the Taunton form (they didn't jump several hurdles because of the low sun), will she act round Cheltenham and will they aim her at the CH.

But I think Henderson will target the CH if he thinks she's good enough and Nico will certainly be hoping that's the case because he'll get the ride.

The positives are that she has been very impressive so far in races run in pretty decent times and showing the sort of finishing speed a CH winner needs (albeit in a far lower grade). I also love her racing style - held up just off the pace - which suits Nico and the way a CH is usually run.

She is only 5 now so there's every chance she could find the necessary improvement to give Epatante a run for her money (Yes, so could Saint Roi who's the same age). But I reckon MR"s price provides decent value in a race where there is very little value right now.

I'm on board with 1pt each way at 50-1 for the CH.

[Saxon Warrior]

I think with Saint Roi it just comes down to how much you believe he’s going to improve as he certainly had plenty left in the tank. He did put 5 lengths between himself and buttercup from jumping the last and was still going away at the line.

On a side note, what is the main factor people look at when judging how much they think a horse will improve? Age, starts/experience, form or other?

Looking a few potential churdle horses:

Epatante 6yo OR:162 6 hurdle starts

Abacadabras 6yo OR:158 5 hurdle starts

Goshen 4yo OR:158 4 hurdle starts

Saint Roi 5yo OR: 149 4 hurdle starts

Marie’s Rock 5yo OR:144 2 hurdle starts

You’d expect all the above to still be on an upward curve but with the mares allowance I do think it’s very hard to look past Epatante. If say she comes on just 2lbs next year it would mean you’re looking for around 13lbs improvement from Aba and Goshen. I’m not ruling it out but the fact Abacadabras is the same age as Epatante and had just the 1 less start over hurdles, I can’t see him getting the better of her. Goshen clearly has age on his side.

I really don’t have a strong opinion on Saint Roi other than he was visually impressive from the last in the county and had plenty in hand. I’ll be waiting to see what he does on his next start though. I just wonder if he’s got too much to find with Epatante.

I think Marie’s Rock is an interesting contender because of her OR plus the mares allowance puts her in the mix. Also the fact she’s only had 2 starts over hurdles makes her appealing as there is surely more to come. Not sure how much I trust that OR though as her RPR is 136. Hendo said she’d be back for next season, any updates? She interests me as an EW play at 50s. What do people make of her?

Looking at Timeform Ratings, Goshen is already a lot closer than on RPR ratings.

Looking at those with potential to run in the Champion Hurdle 2021 (rather than go chasing) the list is the following.

Timeform
HURDLERS
163 SHARJAH
161p EPATANTE
161p GOSHEN
158 ABACADABRAS
158 BUVEUR D'AIR
156 SALDIER

150p SAINT ROI
146 CONCERTISTA

[Kevloaf]

Abacadabras 2nd in the Supreme, makes him as good as Buveuir D'air?






Epatante has some room at the head of that list doesn't she, 5 lbs clear is plenty, without her improving at all.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Abacadabras 2nd in the Supreme, makes him as good as Buveuir D'air?






Epatante has some room at the head of that list doesn't she, 5 lbs clear is plenty, without her improving at all.

She has gained that rating in open class though. Potential for those novices/juvenile ratings to jump up quite a bit when they are tested next season, imo.

[Kevloaf]

She has gained that rating in open class though. Potential for those novices/juvenile ratings to jump up quite a bit when they are tested next season, imo.

Yes, true.

As a wider point that's why the ratings don't particularly interest me at this stage.



Might start a Champion Hurdle thread now. Should get the big uns started.

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Anyone know if Scooby will be posting his thoughts/bets again this year?

[BookieBasher]

First antepost L15 placed

Easywork (RSA)
Bob Olinger (Ballymore)
Thyme Hill (Stayers)
Queens Brook (Mares Novice)

[CUEMYCARD]

Anyone know if Scooby will be posting his thoughts/bets again this year?

Hopefully ����

[somer1]

First antepost L15 placed

Easywork (RSA)
Bob Olinger (Ballymore)
Thyme Hill (Stayers)
Queens Brook (Mares Novice)

I likes it BB. Tried to get QB in our monthly Yankee last month.

[somer1]

Anyone know if Scooby will be posting his thoughts/bets again this year?

Wonders if people are looking to be copying his bets?

[Outlaw]

Wonders if people are looking to be copying his bets?

Anyone who does post presumably places the bet before sharing so why would that be anybody's concern?

[ComplyOrDie]

Wonders if people are looking to be copying his bets?

You'll probably notice in the diary section that many people have started, some deeper than others in building their books.

From memory I think Scooby's strategy was different to any on here he was definitely more selective and bloody good at it too.

Hopefully he makes an appearance at some point

[Saxon Warrior]

First antepost L15 placed

Easywork (RSA)
Bob Olinger (Ballymore)
Thyme Hill (Stayers)
Queens Brook (Mares Novice)

Love them all.
Put Elimay in to win the Mares Chase too.

[Istabraq]

Anyone who does post presumably places the bet before sharing so why would that be anybody's concern?

I think you’ll be surprised.
So many ideas for bets come from discussion, many times I’ve convinced myself of bets whilst exchanging views on a discussion thread.
The trouble is that so many of us will have accounts closed and limited/very limited options that the exchange can often be our only option and it’s easy to set hares running over there when an order or two gets taken

[Outlaw]

I think you’ll be surprised.
So many ideas for bets come from discussion, many times I’ve convinced myself of bets whilst exchanging views on a discussion thread.
The trouble is that so many of us will have accounts closed and limited/very limited options that the exchange can often be our only option and it’s easy to set hares running over there when an order or two gets taken

Whilst it's great to discuss bets/races, the majority of any bets for an individual come from their own thinking as you gather your own opinion from a race and/or form lines. Anybody who wants to a degree "clarification/support" can't have that strong a view in the first place. The topic of getting on can be debated forever and a day,we all try our best with multiple accounts etc but if you are sharing a tip/selection and not getting on yourself apart from a pat on the back what are you gaining by sharing it?

I will be intrigued to see what happens once the racing returns shortly, with day to day online punting returning for many will the antepost markets see less action or given more slack on liabilities and prices not being cut as often as at present?