Cheltenham 2021 - Ante Post Bets

[Might_Bite]

Where do we think Champ will start out? The Hennessy?

I think Nicky has said that he'd start in the Listed Intermediate Chase at Sandown, as both the legendary Might Bite, and Santini did after their novice seasons and then I wouldn't be surprised if, like the Bite, he went to the King George before the Goldie.

[The King Pimm]

The one I have my eye on is Gaillard Du Mesnil per my diary thread.

Galliard Du Mensil is still 50/1 with Unibet

[Kevloaf]

Everyone said Dawn Run couldn't win the Gold Cup because her jumping was so dodgy - I was there to see her prove the doubters wrong and enjoy the spectacle of the paddock being completely swamped in a wild Irish celebration as she returned to the winners enclosure.

Sadly those days are gone.

But Champ's jumping in the RSA was an absolute horror show. BJ gave him the ride of the meeting to get him round.

There's no way I could back him at 12-1 for the Gold Cup without first seeing a huge improvement in his jumping. Champ won't get away with it in the GC when his jumping is under maximum pressure.

Did Dawn Run get away with it? Improve? or Jumping wasn't that bad to start with?


Lost me with the analogy

[nortonscoin200]

She got away with. But I don’t think Champ is going to be good enough to get away with it in a GC. He’s not in her league.

[Istabraq]

To be fair the reigning double champion isn’t a natural jumper of a fence, the way the course is laid out now makes it a slightly easier test for chasers...

[taylorch1990]

For those Interested in Genola she runs in the 12.10 at Saint Cloud today.

[Kevloaf]

She got away with. But I don’t think Champ is going to be good enough to get away with it in a GC. He’s not in her league.

So despite being there to see doubters proved wrong, you don't want to believe



I think there is some analysis which shows he lost around 4L during the RSA, and Minella Indo and Allaho lost 0.5L



Doubters said his jumping wasn't good enough to win an RSA, but he did....




All comes down to the price though, so 12/1 - fair enough, can see why you can leave it - I have too (for now)

[nortonscoin200]

So despite being there to see doubters proved wrong, you don't want to believe



I think there is some analysis which shows he lost around 4L during the RSA, and Minella Indo and Allaho lost 0.5L



Doubters said his jumping wasn't good enough to win an RSA, but he did....




All comes down to the price though, so 12/1 - fair enough, can see why you can leave it - I have too (for now)

It’s not simply the case that I don’t want to believe.

Yes Champ got away with it to win the RSA and prove the doubters wrong.

But winning a Gold Cup requires a significantly higher level of ability than winning an RSA - and by definition Champ will have less margin for error.

I thought this year’s Gold Cup field was very strong and it’s likely to be of a similar standard next season, maybe even better if most of them are fit.

And I believe Champ is likely to be found out when his jumping comes under such extreme pressure.

Will he be able to keep a decent racing position if he makes jumping errors. Will he burn up too much energy with those errors. Will he be good enough to give his GC rivals 4 lengths through poor jumping. Is it more likely he will fail to complete the course because of the pressure a GC puts on dodgy jumpers.

By my reckoning the answers to all these questions come back negative in relation to Champ.

Don’t get me wrong, he’s obviously very good and no doubt they will be working extremely hard to improve his jumping. But the GC is the ultimate test and in every sport that is when a weakness will usually show up.

But you’re right, it does come down to price and right now I wouldn’t be interested in anything less than 25-1. Some might say that’s a ridiculous viewpoint but Minella Indo is a more likely GC winner than Champ in my book.

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Galliard Du Mensil is still 50/1 with Unibet

I’ve had it added to Hills markets as well; 50/1 with them for the Supreme which is unusual, usually if you request anything they just go a standard 25/1

[Arkle]

Watched bob olingers bumper race for the first time plenty left in the tank on bad ground AB horse imo il be backing soon for that race

[ComplyOrDie]

Watched bob olingers bumper race for the first time plenty left in the tank on bad ground AB horse imo il be backing soon for that race

That's the one novice hurdle I wouldn't expect him to turn up in, looks to have a bit of class and enough gears about him for that, just my opinion though.

[Istabraq]

Watched bob olingers bumper race for the first time plenty left in the tank on bad ground AB horse imo il be backing soon for that race

I know I sound like a broken record but, for singles purposes, I’ll be keeping my powder dry on the novice heats.
Whilst you’d like to think the better novices will target one of three hurdle races (and getting the target right is never easy) you also have to factor in the handicap route with the County and Coral, perhaps more so than the Pertemps, all being options.
I accept there’s generally an unknown about targets this far out but for many of these horses it’s not just a Supreme v Ballymore and if a horse has 4+ potential targets the chances of getting it wrong increase and you end up with a pile of dead vouchers...

[Priceiskey]

I have come across a horse called GENOLA that I fancy for the mares novice hurdle who is currently trained in France. She’s a 4 year old filly who has won 2 NHF races in France impressively. Some of the horses in behind her in both those races have been sold to British owners such as Terry Warner. She then came 3rd only beaten 2 necks in the listed bumper on New Year’s Day. I was impressed when I saw that race with how she traveled and with an extra 10 yards would have won. That race was over 1 mile 6.

The horse that finished second that day Ocean wind won next time out in a listed bumper at Newbury, then finished 6th in the Champion bumper. I know connections think she can win a big handicap on the flat this summer.

The horse that finished 4th Grand Roi trained by Nicky Henderson has gone onto win 2 hurdle races since and is now rated 140.

The horse that finished 5th has run twice since also, winning both times on the flat and is now rated 82.

She’s by ‘martiline’ who is the sire of many top National Hunt horses, out of a ‘toady’ mare who’s sire is ‘network’ who was sprinter sacre’s sire.

I wonder if she’ll be one willie gets as he’s won this race with similar types plus extra bonus of her already having Cheltenham experience!

365 put her up at 40/1 yesterday when I requested her for the race, managed to get some on at that price now slashed her to 25s. I’ve had her added with other firms too who are all 25. Just a bit of an out the ball Park selection if she is bought to be trained over here.

Genola runs on the flat today 12:10.

[Kautostar]

That’s where the win any race market comes in for horses like that

[Istabraq]

That’s where the win any race market comes in for horses like that

Agreed, but the price will always reflect that and it’s no longer possible to include ‘any race’ markets in multis...