Cheltenham 2021 - Ante Post Bets

[Saxon Warrior]

Hi Gang, long time lurker....now stepping out of the shadows. Im more of a flat punter but do like to dabble with Chelts and the National.

Wanted to get your thoughts on a bet I've not seen mentioned much....Easy As That.

2/2 in bumpers last year, including an absolute romp on heavy ground LTO. That performance earned him a Timeform rating of 118+, third only to Appreciate It 119 and Ferny Hollow 123.

Not sure he beat much that day but he's clearly talented, especially on winter ground.

So whats the bet? He's 14/1 to win any race, I'm not interested in that. What I am interested in is SkyBets 50/1 for the Supreme Novices. Why? He looks to have a decent enough engine for 2m but more of an influence is that his owners sent Itchy Feet, Simply The Betts and Saint Calvados through the Supreme route. Now only Itchy Feet placed for connections but I think this one is an arguably better bumper horse.

Thoughts?

Two very impressive runs in bad ground.

Dam is a half-sister to two 3-Miles, Time For Rupert and Minella Fair, and sire won the St Leger.

I would hazard a guess he wouldn’t be bred for the Supreme, but he could defy his pedigree.

A handicap or the Albert Bartlett, maybe more likely, probably best to look at the 25/1 Any Race price with WH.

[Kevloaf]

Forum favourite / over hyped yak is running tomorrow in a 2m flat race ...

Felix Desjy

[Saxon Warrior]

Forum favourite / over hyped yak is running tomorrow in a 2m flat race ...

Felix Desjy

Saw that a couple of days ago Kev. Wasn’t expecting 6/5 favourite though.
Coral Cup third (to DDC) Thosedayaregone is second fav at 5/2.

[Nortons who]

Forum favourite / over hyped yak is running tomorrow in a 2m flat race ...

Felix Desjy

Kev - At least the hurdles won't get in the way. Surprised you aren't rolling FD up with Epatante....

[Kevloaf]

Kev - At least the hurdles won't get in the way. Surprised you aren't rolling FD up with Epatante....

Safe Voyage is the one I'm considering for that on Saturday.

[JackieMoon33]

Hi Gang, long time lurker....now stepping out of the shadows. Im more of a flat punter but do like to dabble with Chelts and the National.

Wanted to get your thoughts on a bet I've not seen mentioned much....Easy As That.

2/2 in bumpers last year, including an absolute romp on heavy ground LTO. That performance earned him a Timeform rating of 118+, third only to Appreciate It 119 and Ferny Hollow 123.

Not sure he beat much that day but he's clearly talented, especially on winter ground.

So whats the bet? He's 14/1 to win any race, I'm not interested in that. What I am interested in is SkyBets 50/1 for the Supreme Novices. Why? He looks to have a decent enough engine for 2m but more of an influence is that his owners sent Itchy Feet, Simply The Betts and Saint Calvados through the Supreme route. Now only Itchy Feet placed for connections but I think this one is an arguably better bumper horse.

Thoughts?

We briefly discussed this one a while back. After going through my extensive shortlist and whittling down my early plays, Easy As That did not make the cut for any race.

http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showthread.php?15712-Would-you-back-a-Venetia-Williams-novice-hurdler

[Hardy Eustace]

Forum favourite / over hyped yak is running tomorrow in a 2m flat race ...

Felix Desjy

how dare you
He is the 2020 Arkle winner!!

[Kevloaf]

Forum favourite / over hyped yak is running tomorrow in a 2m flat race ...

Felix Desjy

Saw that a couple of days ago Kev. Wasn’t expecting 6/5 favourite though.
Coral Cup third (to DDC) Thosedayaregone is second fav at 5/2.

6/5 was made to look ****ing stupid there, that was the easiest win I've seen in ages! Had it won from about 3f raced.

Kev - At least the hurdles won't get in the way. Surprised you aren't rolling FD up with Epatante....

Should have done, gambled on Safe Voyage instead lol

how dare you
He is the 2020 Arkle winner!!

Very well could be.

[Halffat1]

Galvin has been talked up as a potential horse to watch for the 2021 Festival from some quarters on here, presumably with a handicap the likely target. Declared to run tonight at Killarney, is the consensus that we should expect the easy win that his prohibitive odds suggest or is it just me being overly cynical that this could be an early chance to try and help his handicap mark for all that I can't see anything to beat him? Dilemma!

[Saxon Warrior]

I was thinking GALVIN is running today as a prep for the Galway Plate. A race his trainer has farmed in recent years.

[ComplyOrDie]

Galvin has been talked up as a potential horse to watch for the 2021 Festival from some quarters on here, presumably with a handicap the likely target. Declared to run tonight at Killarney, is the consensus that we should expect the easy win that his prohibitive odds suggest or is it just me being overly cynical that this could be an early chance to try and help his handicap mark for all that I can't see anything to beat him? Dilemma!

He should absolutely dot up tonight, and the odds suggest this also. I don't have many concerns tbh, just his current level of fitness, but you'd imagine that he would be ready enough to win something like this tonight.

[Kevloaf]

Galvin has been talked up as a potential horse to watch for the 2021 Festival from some quarters on here, presumably with a handicap the likely target. Declared to run tonight at Killarney, is the consensus that we should expect the easy win that his prohibitive odds suggest or is it just me being overly cynical that this could be an early chance to try and help his handicap mark for all that I can't see anything to beat him? Dilemma!

He should absolutely dot up tonight, and the odds suggest this also. I don't have many concerns tbh, just his current level of fitness, but you'd imagine that he would be ready enough to win something like this tonight.

He's rated 24 lbs superior, and gets 6lbs from Chavi Artist today.





He'll just win it won't he?
If he didn't win it, I doubt the handicapper would assume he's near 20 lbs inferior and drop him at all. He's more likely to raise anything that gets near him.


Win, eased down, on the bridle.

[Halffat1]

He's rated 24 lbs superior, and gets 6lbs from Chavi Artist today.





He'll just win it won't he?
If he didn't win it, I doubt the handicapper would assume he's near 20 lbs inferior and drop him at all. He's more likely to raise anything that gets near him.


Win, eased down, on the bridle.

I don't tend to get involved at such short prices, but given his superiority perhaps his current price is very generous! My angle was whether or not the market will react to whatever Galvin does tonight? If he fails could his price potentially drift when improving his chance of a decent weight, while a sparkling performance will see him cut with the opposite true?! I fear I am very much overthinking this with the lack of Festival clues at this time of year (particularly as market moves don't tend to be significant at this time of year), so just going to watch the race and not be rushed into getting involved.

[Lobos]

I'd be taking the festival TWAR price before he dots up as that's sure to drop knowing the bookies. 20/1 taken.

[Kevloaf]

I don't tend to get involved at such short prices, but given his superiority perhaps his current price is very generous! My angle was whether or not the market will react to whatever Galvin does tonight? If he fails could his price potentially drift when improving his chance of a decent weight, while a sparkling performance will see him cut with the opposite true?! I fear I am very much overthinking this with the lack of Festival clues at this time of year (particularly as market moves don't tend to be significant at this time of year), so just going to watch the race and not be rushed into getting involved.

Yeah I see what you mean.

I don't think there is any chance he drifts regardless of what he does tonight.

I'd be disappointed if he gets clipped though too, if he does it's probably beacause of people anticipating a clip, so they back him, therefore highlighting him, and he gets clipped.



Personally, do I think Galvin will go off shorter than 20/1 if he lines up at the festival, probably, however I'd want him each way, and I will take my chances that 1/4 the odds 4 places NRNB he may well be 16/1 or 20/1 for those races that I can narrow him down to.


I wouldn't have him as a 20/1 shot for the Ryanair for example, so no interest in that - he would be and should be closer to 50/1 for the Ryanair.




Despite him running today, I'm still in no rush - as SW said, he's probably a better ante post bet for the Galway Plate than he is a long term festival plot?