State of the Nation: 2 Months to Go

[charlie]

How are you feeling about the festival?

Can't wait now, 8 weeks today and the roar will have happened. Been quiet at work this week and can't seem to stop thinking about the festival.

- How do you feel your current positions are stacking up?

Not fantastic, some good some bad.

- Where are you strong?

Good position on Abacadabras in the supreme, Envoi Allen a couple of good multiples that could pay good dividends.

- Where are you weak?

Haven't covered anywhere near as many races as I would like.

- Anything you've done differently? How's it working?

Haven't had much of a spare fund to bet with this year as I've brought my first home so that's eaten a lot of my money, therefore I haven't been able to back as many as I would have liked.

- How will you be watching?

Never attended festival so this year will be my first. Gonna be there Tuesday and Wednesday, watch from home from Thursday and then a reunion with a couple of lads from uni on the Friday (same as last year). Happy hour drinks all afternoon and a 15ft screen - heaven.

Nothing like it. The sense of anticipation and excitement walking in is something else, it really is. Rest of the day is alright too

[Stormez]

- Getting impatient now, just want it to be here! Causing me sleepless nights!

- Current position is surprisingly good, only malone road, band of outlaws & gypsy island already out. Almost all have progressed & shortened since I backed them.

- Strong in the Mares (honeysuckle), NH (CS, CC) Supreme (Aba) Champion chase (DDS, CE) Stayers (PP, ITCF). Bit early to say with regards the handicaps.

- Missed the prices on some horses & struggled to find an alternative, so will have to watch & suffer. Draconien & captain cattistock seem to have been a waste of money!

- I’ve left some races alone this year that I struggle to get a grasp of, like the bumper & triumph. Backed less horses after debut, happy to watch them back it up then take a shorter price.

- I’m going down on Monday, will be in tatts on the Tuesday & Wednesday. Managed to bag a spare in a box on the Thursday last year, just had to be the designated driver. Small price to pay! Will try & talk my way into the same deal this year! Pub on gold cup day.

[Eggs]

@Eggs re: loving Aintree - I always really struggle with it. Tried everything from reducing stakes etc. Considering not betting on Aintree at all this year tbh

...I was born and raised in Liverpool, Rob, so it’s probably lots to do with that. I usually find one or two nice winners over the 3 days, following the likes of Peter Bowen blind has paid dividends. Very unusually, Bowen hasn’t had many runners at the Aintree meetings so far this season.

[Morley Street]

This is the time of year that I start to get a bit obsessive and try to look for angles in races that just aren’t there. As such, I’m going to try to adopt a low, mainly watching profile until after the DRF... we’ll see how that goes alongside dry January and get fit February
I’m pretty pleased with my book but have a few important ones yet to come out (Lamarckise, Benie, Fly Smart, Power of Pause) and also a few that need to redeem their reputations (Chacun, Champ, Samcro & KD). KD has been my biggest AP disappointment to date and I’ve kinda written him off in my head but my plan B in the race is equally as fragile in Saldier.
For the last few years I’ve been in the members for the first 3 days and then watch at home, drying out on the Friday. Doing the same this year. My strengths are looking to be in the early part / middle of the week. I particularly like the look of Wednesday as I’m balls deep in Envoi and have some sizeable cross doubles and trebles going on to Champ, Chacun & Paisley for the Thursday.
Weaknesses at the mo are the handicaps where I’ve missed some of the more juicier prices but will be looking forward to taking an uncommitted position nearer the time.

[archie]

Absolutely not a weakness to have not had a bet in a particular race.

[Gem1304]

- How are you feeling about the festival?

It's constantly on my mind! Already driving people around me mad. They don't know what they're missing

- How do you feel your current positions are stacking up?

I've never really got on at fancy prices before so there's a small sense of achievement there. Trying not to be too optimistic though.

- Where are you strong?

Triumph and Albert Bartlett probably my strongest.

- Where are you weak?

The bloody JLT! Can't get my head around it at all. And still kicking myself for not getting 50s about Notebook for the Arkle when I had the chance.

- Anything you've done differently? How's it working?

I started with the antepost earlier this time. Could all blow up in my face but thankfully have a fair fair big prices so only need a couple to come in. Also never used my weekly free bets for Cheltenham before, so that's quite nice to have on the side this time around.

- How will you be watching?

Pub Tuesday, at the course Wednesday, with family Thursday then on my own at home Friday. And try not to burn out too quickly!!

[Arkle]

Looking forward to it countdown well and truly on

Went for a different approach this year trixies didn’t work out for last year so trying trebles this year with a few hotpots and smaller stakes

Envoi Allen @ big prices rolling onto multi’s klassical dream 8/1 envoi Allen 10/1 minella indo 16/1 presenting percy 14/1 Yankee

Klassical dream backed in multi praying for buckets of rain

Haven’t touched the handicaps as got shafted last year with horses ending up in different races will definitely waiting till NRNB before betting this year

Time booked off work will be in the pub most days hopefully celebrating

[charlie]

Absolutely not a weakness to have not had a bet in a particular race.

Some might even say its a strength

[Lobos]

Can't sleep as usual and when I do I dream of horses instead of Love Island girls. Looking forward to the greatest week ever !

Current position is the best ive ever been in in 38 years of goibg. Not counting any chickens yet but......is that an egg cracking ?...


Think I'm very strong in all non HCP races on the first day especially.

Light inJLT, GC, Triumph and all handicaps but will sort that during week

Laid off the multiples this year and not done any ew's. Backed singles only in 17 races all around £20. Approx 3/4 in each race which will all win a minimum of £250 and upwards and currently have 14 favs in those races.

Going up on Monday afternoon as usual with 4 mates. Staying in centre in Prem Inn until the Friday evening, Best Mate enclosure every day as always. Hitting Montpellier bars and restaurants big time. Can't wait. Bring it on. I'm giving the bookies a pasting this year.....said that every year......one day eh!!!!

[Hurricane fly]

- How are you feeling about the festival?
Excited as always, DRF should be fantastic though and would love it to get more publicity.
However the fez is naturally the highlight of the season. Hasn’t really clicked that I’m away for the two weeks before it so not sure if I will get to a preview show, and might miss some offers. However my brother works in a bookies so I’m sure there will be plenty of Cheltenham related conversation!

- How do you feel your current positions are stacking up?

Every time I look at my book I flip flop, at times I’m really happy at times I’m depressed thinking antepost has been a waste of time! I try to see antepost as away of saving me money on the day however I’m confident of having atleast 3-4 winners in it which will put me comfortably up and on my way to my goal for profit.

I take some positions on well fancied horses such as Champ who I just don’t rate as a winner so won’t back regardless of if I’m book building or not. It might seem a glaring hole to some but there are some horses I just don’t want inside. Eptante being another one

Very interested in seeing where some of my any race horses end up - if at all for example McFabulous

- Where are you strong?
4Miler with Carefully Selected and Champagne Classic at 20+/1
Very happy with my QMCC and Chanpion Hurdle position - where I again am taking strong opinion on Altior/DDS and Eptante
RSA could be strong depending on where some any race horses go as well

Looking at it a lot of my better positions are from preseason


- Where are you weak?
At times I absolutely hate my Supreme book. Definitely missed the boat on Edwardstone, champion Hurdle is reliant on an oft injured horse being fit after an injury which when you look at it like that is definitely weak.

- Anything you've done differently? How's it working?
Much more involved this year than last, so far I’ve had a lot less hit, w.g last year I was heavily invested in Hollographic early on, and the weather played havoc with it. Still along way to go until we can sigh a sigh of relief with regards to non runners


- How will you be watching?
Will be in the Club Enclosure Tues/Wed, last year a friend managed to get me into hospitality on the Thursday and hopeful to get it again this year. Viewing wise it’s not great but it’s the festival and it’s free. Friday will infront of the tv, have to travel up to the north east in the morning so will be a long day.

[Kevloaf]

- Where are you weak?

Biggest weakness. I'd have to say eczema

Excellent.

[Saxon Warrior]

8 weeks to the Festival


- How are you feeling about the festival?

It does take up a lot of enjoyable study, and energy, to unearth selections and staking decisions, and at the moment it’s the early stages of mining for handicap opportunities. Handicap hurdles, particularly over 2M are my speciality, not so much handicap chases which can be carnage with so many runners and fences.
I probably should get more balance back doing other stuff, that would probably come around 3 weeks before the Festival, in five weeks time, when there is no more new form and performances to follow, it’s all there to be seen.



- How do you feel your current positions are stacking up?

I’m nothing but happy with what I have got so far, no point being sad, is there? and I am well aware that profits can come from a variety of betting decisions, made at any time. If something looks good now, then place the bet now.

Two years ago was my record profit there and a lot came from NRNB from the Sunday before the Festival, a hatful of winners, at terrific prices, so funds saved ready to check out the markets on the last Sunday before the meeting.


- Where are you strong?

I think the forum generally has good positions currently in the Bartlett.
I have what I think are the right horses in the Gold Cup covered, but will lose if WPM wins.
The Arkle will only have a few with chances and I have backed and still like three of the market leaders.


- Where are you weak?

It’s not weak, more to do with entry dates for handicaps and not formed too many ideas on them yet, apart from two for the Boodles, one for Pertemps, one for the Coral Cup and one for the Martin Pipe - I told you I specialise in tracking down the handicap hurdle winners.

Champion Hurdle looks weak for me though, but let’s wait and see a few days or weeks, and things could get brighter.

- Anything you've done differently? How's it working?

I have had more time this year to back early, and the carry it forward through the weeks, tweaking here and there and trying to build a solid betting position across the week without backing everything that shows a modicum of form and shortens.
I am looking for possible winners that shorten, and not to cash-out.

I now use cash-out firms whenever possible, just in case a selections form or health takes a hit, something I’ve learned on the job through this season, and will do more of from the start next year.

Multis looking good, plus a move to put horses I like, at good odds, in doubles along with a select bunch of other horses.
At the moment for example I have
Pic D’Orhy at 40/1 for the Coral Cup in small doubles with Notebook, A Plus Tard, Faugheen, Allmankind, Defi Du Seuil and Champagne Classic.

Captain Guinness at 20/1 for the Supreme with seven others (priced from 10/1 to 25/1) in small doubles only, hoping that in the first race of the Festival I have the winner and that spirals out through the whole meeting into decent bets going on to those seven horses.

All of these could be cashed out for full value at the moment if decide to.

One pre-Festival version of those doubles will be decided this weekend, as I took the 13/2 Cornerstone Lad to win at Haydock on Saturday in small doubles with The Cashel Man 25/1 (Coral Cup), Never Adapt 20/1 (County) and Festival D’Ex 33/1 (Bartlett) - again my preference for betting on hurdles shines through

The jury’s out on these small double punts with an anchor horse, but it’s not a large stake and I am trialling it as an alternative to larger multi bets (less bets than a Yankee) though not exclusively.


- How will you be watching?

I reckon it’s my 15th successive Festival, and as usual I will be staying in the same accommodation as all the previous ones.
I know the Festival-goers are proud of their attendance, a real badge of honour, and for me it’s like “Christmas for grown-ups”.

If we count each day attending the Festival like 1 international football cap, I am above 50, moving towards 60 caps this year.

Used to winning there, the last two years much bigger than the previous years, and hope to be in the position by the end of day one, or two, to know I’m in profit again for the whole week.

[Middle_Of_March]

How are you feeling about the festival?
Buzzing. Best week of the year. And my uni mate I live with is now into the racing and is coming for the week rather than it just be me like in previous years.

How do you feel your current positions are stacking up?
In a good position overall. Used every free bet over the year on Cheltenham antepost. Plenty of good free bets and enough juicy prices to feel really good.

Where are you strong?
Like so many people, I’ve got fancy prices on Envoi Allen. However, he has been my biggest bet on my Cheltenham diary as a 12 point stake ranging between 14s and 5s. Any race and Ballymore. Mares Novice is a good race too at this stage like it will be for most of us on here (thanks again Scooby with that 33s Lamarckise). Also confident in my position in the Foxhunters (decent bet on Wishing And Hoping at 22/1 and plenty of free bets on Hazel Hill at around 10s - 8s.

Where are you weak?
Champion Hurdle I really need a turnaround from Klassical Dream or Saldier to get me out of jail. Decided very very early to make a free bet book on the Arkle as I didn’t really fancy much but it was very open with big prices everywhere. Despite having a fair few at nice prices, I have nothing on Notebook. So the water is murky there.

Anything you've done differently? How's it working?
Honestly.. no. I took my own advice last year to not get involved on the supreme until really confident and held back before backing Abacadabras. Also used the any race market more early doors and have some cracking prices because of it.

How will you be watching?
I’ll be there for the week. With my mate. Really looking forward to it. As a side note, I’m an Ipswich fan (just got back from Oxford away tonight as it goes and off to Tranmere away on Saturday) and I stay in Bristol for the Festival and get the train in and out across the week. Anyway, by complete chance.. the last two seasons Ipswich have played Bristol City in cheltneham week (Saturday in 2018 and Tuesday in 2019). With our relegation, how incredibly unlikely was it that for the Saturday after Cheltenham ends, Ipswich would have Bristol Rovers away. So I’ll be staying an extra night and going to that one too. Should be a brilliant week.

[TimRiggins]

How are you feeling about the festival?

Really looking forward to it, but will mostly be cheering you guys here on, as I've had nowhere near enough time to follow racing as much this year.



How do you feel your current positions are stacking up?

Got about 1/4 of the money invested I have done over the last few years, which is just as well, because I spend 2 1/2 weeks in Vegas last month, and that just about covered what I'd bet through the week



Where are you strong?

Triceps



Where are you weak?

Legs are awful, have to use a mobility scooter in Vegas



Anything you've done differently? How's it working?

Not scattergunned as much, which is probably only because I haven't bet much, lol.



How will you be watching?

In my office at home. Unfortunately while working...

[JonnyM92]

-Really looking forward to it-March can’t come soon enough. This is my first year visiting this forum, and thus far I’ve sat quietly taking it all in and finding my way around. I’ve found some great info on here, that has lead to what look like some tasty AP bets, so thanks.

-Pretty good. Managed to get some good prices early doors and have enjoyed watching them move in. I’ve done the majority with 365, so anything I haven’t quite liked the look of, have used the option of cash out.

-Similar to most EA at decent prices. Have a few of the market leaders at nice prices. Thanks to whoever tipped up Latest Exhibition on here @ 66s!

-Not necessarily weak, but I don’t have much in the way of handicaps. Tend to leave these till the week for the extra places. My other potential weakness is multiples, I’m a sucker for a trixie/L15 which last year didn’t work so well.

-We are heading to the festival for the first time this year. Heading down Monday, tues-wed at the races. Watch it in the pubs of Cheltenham Thurs (if anyone has any recommendations of where to go send them over), before heading back to Cumbria Thursday night. Friday will be watching it local.