Supreme Novices Hurdle 2020

[darlojim]

Getting abit late in the day for fly smart would like to see a entry soon

Hes going to be out soon dont worry

[ComplyOrDie]

Kevs Supreme bets



Must be missing at least one potential winner

Will be a worry when Unexcepted looms up on the snaff....

[Morley Street]

Will be a worry when Unexcepted looms up on the snaff....

That’s exactly what I was thinking

[jack1092]

If we accept Envoi is very unlikely to show up here, unless there's proper soft ground, this race is so wide open.

Abacadabras sets the standard, but it's hardly an insurmountable standard. His best run is being beaten 1.5Ls by Envoi, loomed up but was beaten comfortably by Envoi. The Envoi Fan Club suggest he idles and is never all out so i guess that also raises a minor question mark on him. He's still got the best form in the book. If you are an RPR man, not many i know are, but i find them useful for part of my analysis, Andy Dufresne has recorded a better RPR than Aba in winning yesterday. Captain Guinness produced a very good 147 in defeat as well. The main English challenger currently is Fiddler and he holds the highest RPR in the field with his Tolworth win. He won easy but in second was Jeremy's Flame and like Abacadabras' win over xmas, the form looks less impressive due to the second.
Edwardstone holds Fiddler and is twice the price? Kingy's record isn't great at the festival but you can't rule him out because of that. He does do a fair bit wrong in his races, which would be a worry. Is he similar to Captain Guinness?

This looks a Summerville Boy year to me, wide open with no standout challenger.

[Saxon Warrior]

I will put my neck on the line before the RPRs come out and say AD 150 CG 147

That would put AD 1lb ahead of Aba
No axe to grind but happy with my Captain Guinness bet @ 33/1

Spot on Pendil. The RPRs are out this morning, Andy Dufresne 150 and Captain Guinness 147.

Captain Guinness 16lbs up on his debut run which is also bang on for the improvement HdB has been getting out if his top notchers second time out, A Plus Tard (14lb) Notebook (15lb) for example.

Notebook as a novice, went up another 12lb on his latest, third run of the season.

Roll on Captain Guinness going up another 12lb, next time out, thats plenty good enough to win a Grade 1. May be possible as he still has only ‘two lifetime starts’, not hurdling starts, he must be well ahead of track so early in his racing career.

On RPRs, yesterday’s Grade 2 is up there compared to the Grade 1 at the DRF, where winners of the last eight runnings have achieved:- 147, 150, 150, 152, 151, 149, 155, 145.
Klassical Dream being the last one at 145.

The Grade 2 rating of yesterday’s race compares will with all other previous runnings including Douvan’s win at 149 and Vautour 145.

[Philg123]

I think this supreme will turn out to be a lot better than the Summerville boy year but I do actually know what you mean by that regarding the openness of it. there’s plenty of horses who will prove to be very good but at the moment I just can’t see past Abacadbras think he is a rock solid favourite and has the best form in the book. I could proved to be wrong but hopefully I’m not.

[Can't Catch Me]

Edwardstone into 10's with Paddy!

I know his form has taken a few nice boosts, but I would very much fancy Chantry House to confirm form with him myself. I know it was a bumper over a year ago but he beat him pretty decisively.

[TCH29]

If we accept Envoi is very unlikely to show up here, unless there's proper soft ground, this race is so wide open.

Abacadabras sets the standard, but it's hardly an insurmountable standard. His best run is being beaten 1.5Ls by Envoi, loomed up but was beaten comfortably by Envoi. The Envoi Fan Club suggest he idles and is never all out so i guess that also raises a minor question mark on him. He's still got the best form in the book. If you are an RPR man, not many i know are, but i find them useful for part of my analysis, Andy Dufresne has recorded a better RPR than Aba in winning yesterday. Captain Guinness produced a very good 147 in defeat as well. The main English challenger currently is Fiddler and he holds the highest RPR in the field with his Tolworth win. He won easy but in second was Jeremy's Flame and like Abacadabras' win over xmas, the form looks less impressive due to the second.
Edwardstone holds Fiddler and is twice the price? Kingy's record isn't great at the festival but you can't rule him out because of that. He does do a fair bit wrong in his races, which would be a worry. Is he similar to Captain Guinness?

This looks a Summerville Boy year to me, wide open with no standout challenger.

And Chantry House beat Edwardstone in a bumper (correction!) and has had his debut hurdles win franked.

On the form lines, Chantry House is surely the UK one. In Ireland, on times, as well as wins, Abacadabras looks superior to AD to me, much superior. I’d rather CG as an improver, especially at the prices. But Abacadabras is the one I think wins it.

[archie]

Andy D official mark left at 142. No official rating for Captain G.

https://www.hri-ras.ie/Ratings/Microsoft_Word__NHRatings.pdf?v=1.0

[Can't Catch Me]

Andy D official mark left at 142. No official rating for Captain G.

https://www.hri-ras.ie/Ratings/Micro...ings.pdf?v=1.0

Quite surprised at that considering they've given Anything Will Do 135. Thought he was value for more than that even allowing for the fact AD received 1lb yesterday.

[Scooby91]

Andy D official mark left at 142. No official rating for Captain G.

https://www.hri-ras.ie/Ratings/Micro...ings.pdf?v=1.0

I wonder if they'd go Martin Pipe if he wasnt slapped with 4.
I thought hed be just over tbh.

[Run4Home]

https://twitter.com/BigCityBanker/status/1216727956275580929

Looks like maybe a transfer to JP maybe after yesterdays race for Captain Guinness

[Can't Catch Me]

https://twitter.com/BigCityBanker/st...27956275580929

Looks like maybe a transfer to JP maybe after yesterdays race for Captain Guinness

JP isnt showing any signs of letting up is he!! Would love to see his total spend on horseflesh.

[Stormez]

And Chantry House beat Edwardstone in a bumper (correction!) and has had his debut hurdles win franked.

On the form lines, Chantry House is surely the UK one. In Ireland, on times, as well as wins, Abacadabras looks superior to AD to me, much superior. I’d rather CG as an improver, especially at the prices. But Abacadabras is the one I think wins it.

I want to back chantry house, but how likely is he to run in this over the ballymore?

[Saxon Warrior]

Andy Dufresne initial Irish handicap rating is 142 Whoops I missed the earlier post saying the same.