Supreme Novices Hurdle 2020

[Kevloaf]

Just thinking of a better way to word what I mean


I think we're all a bit guilty of 'over thinking' angles like stamina.

When we think a horse will get further, we sort of use that as a POSITIVE for the shorter trip. It isn't a negative, but if your optimum trip is 2m4f, then that is your optimum. I think we go too far to compensate that thinking.

A horse who 'won't get further than 2m' is then often over looked for a horse who will get further but may well actually be a slower horse.

The "Cheltenham Hill" and "festival pace of racing" are the two main points put forward and whilst they're obviously important when comparing distances and tracks etc... it doesn't mean that just because Cheltenham is uphill at the end that every horse HAS TO be better over further than they've shown. It'd hugely depend on where they've shown it and the manner of how they hit the line.





Altior is probably the best example I could ever come up with. He hits the line like he wants to go round againPlenty of people (me being a very vocal one) assumed he'd actually be BETTER up in trip.... but his optimum trip is 2 miles. I don't think that can be argued now really?

...and yes Shishkin, he hit the line over that 2m3 at Huntingdon like a horse with loads left in the tank, meaning he looked like he had loads of stamina.... but do you think he's actually a 2 miler or better over further?

He won't get out stayed over 2 miles because he's too fast. Tiger Roll wouldn't beat any of these over 2 miles, he's a cracking stayer



It's an over played angle, I hope that explains why I think that.

[Kevloaf]

Shishkin is a pretty decent example of staying further won over 2 mile 3 half at Huntingdon and won a 3 mile point. But yes totally know where you’re coming from.

I disagree.

It doesn't PROVE Shishkin is better over further and therefore more effective than at 2 miles does it?



It's nice to know if he had to fo further he would potentially, but to claim Shishkin isn't a speed horse is bananananannannananananas


That Huntington race was shite. Just because on paper it says he won over 2m3f doesn't really mean he's proven at the trip.

It just means he's good enough to still be going after dawdling around a shitty track against rubbish horses.

[archie]

Altior never raced beyond 2m2f until last December. Shishkin has won over 2m3.5f over hurdles and 3m in a PtP. Shishkin is also a moderate jumper.

No comparison.

[Kevloaf]

Altior never raced beyond 2m2f until last December. Shishkin has won over 2m3.5f over hurdles and 3m in a PtP. Shishkin is also a moderate jumper.

No comparison.

Winning a PtP over 3 miles is also a shite point people bring up.

Do they even have 2 mile points?





I could race against you and win over 3 miles.
Then I'd beat you in a 100 metre sprint.


Doesn't mean I am a marathon runner, just means I have more ability than you.

Shishkin was without a doubt the most talented horse in the 2m3.5f race and the 3m point.... he'd also be better over 5f.





If stamina is so important, why don't the Albert Bartlett horses have a crack.

[archie]

Do you think that Shishkin is
1. bred for the Arkle - Sholakov = Don Cossack
2. nailed on to run in the Arkle - because Nicky and Nico say so
3. a remotely value price?????

Why would anyone have a cast-iron opinion this far out? I appreciate that you're not advocating backing him now but the whole hype is bonkers for a horse that only just won the Supreme.

[Kevloaf]

In the last 10 years Supreme winners that:

Won over 2m2f or further

Shishkin (2m3f)
Vautour (2m2f Deloite)
Champagne Fever (2m2f Deloitte)
Al Ferof (2m3f)


Horses that hadn't won over 2m1f or further

Klassical Dream
Summerville Boy
Labaik
Altior
Douvan
Cinders and Ashes





All I'm pointing out, is that to assume you need a horse that's proven to get further is NOT the best way to find the winner of the Supreme.

[Kevloaf]

Do you think that Shishkin is
1. bred for the Arkle - Sholakov = Don Cossack
2. nailed on to run in the Arkle - because Nicky and Nico say so
3. a remotely value price?????

Why would anyone have a cast-iron opinion this far out? I appreciate that you're not advocating backing him now but the whole hype is bonkers for a horse that only just won the Supreme.

1. I wouldn't even consider the breeding to be honest, given what I've seen. Plenty of Gold Cup horses have contended an Arkle too (you need stamina to win an Arkle )

2. Nothing is nailed on, but that's the plan to start with. He'll run in the Arkle unless he's beaten along the way at 2 miles.... f it is to be classed as guess work, that's a tried and tested formula and we have year upon year of similar examples to base it on. No horse would start at 3 miles after winning a Supreme? Horses go up in trip as they get beaten. It's very rare for it to happen any other way unless they've said it from a long way out... and even then, very rare.

3. No, you're right absolutely.

[archie]

Fair enough. I think we're probably more in agreement than disagreeing.

[Kautostar]

Don’t get the Shishkin hate archie. He won what so far looks a decent renewal of the supreme. Everything went against him during the race and he still showed enough guts to win. He’s shown he handles the course and is trained by a master. Apart from his price I don’t know what’s not to like

[Kevloaf]

Don’t get the Shishkin hate archie. He won what so far looks a decent renewal of the supreme. Everything went against him during the race and he still showed enough guts to win. He’s shown he handles the course and is trained by a master. Apart from his price I don’t know what’s not to like

Hate is a bit strong isn't it?

Perfectly valid in what he's questioned isn't he?

..... my post has probably been lost already as I've been banging on about other stuff but my thoughts on him were here: #3037

[The King Pimm]

Winning a PtP over 3 miles is also a shite point people bring up.

Do they even have 2 mile points?

I could race against you and win over 3 miles.
Then I'd beat you in a 100 metre sprint.


Doesn't mean I am a marathon runner, just means I have more ability than you.

Shishkin was without a doubt the most talented horse in the 2m3.5f race and the 3m point.... he'd also be better over 5f.





If stamina is so important, why don't the Albert Bartlett horses have a crack.

Kev vs Archie in a 3 miler and 100 metre race? This could make decent viewing? Are they graded races or handicapped? Who fancies running the book?

[Kevloaf]

Kev vs Archie in a 3 miler and 100 metre race? This could make decent viewing? Are they graded races or handicapped? Who fancies running the book?

I'd be lame on the morning of the race so unfortunately we'll never know.

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Do you think that Shishkin is
1. bred for the Arkle - Sholakov = Don Cossack
2. nailed on to run in the Arkle - because Nicky and Nico say so
3. a remotely value price?????

Why would anyone have a cast-iron opinion this far out? I appreciate that you're not advocating backing him now but the whole hype is bonkers for a horse that only just won the Supreme.

I’m a big fan of Shiskin but personally do think number 2 is a big factor; it’s a Henderson horse so everyone just assumes Arkle

[Kevloaf]

I’m a big fan of Shiskin but personally do think number 2 is a big factor; it’s a Henderson horse so everyone just assumes Arkle

That and he's actually said he hopes he's an Arkle horse, yeah.

[Lobos]

I’m a big fan of Shiskin but personally do think number 2 is a big factor; it’s a Henderson horse so everyone just assumes Arkle

I'm pretty sure they will start him over fences and target the big 2 mile races going forward. However, as we saw with B D'air, if he doesn't take to fences then he will not hang about in reverting back to hurdles. He said that Altior would have won the Churdle and has said the same about Shiskin. His TWAR price is close to his Arkle price so that's the way I'd play it.