Mares Novice Hurdle 2020

[Scooby91]

As she’s a juvenile would she not be more likely to go for the Triumph? I don’t know much about the horse but only a few juveniles end up outside their age group (unless owners have multiple strong candidates).

Her owners have concertista too, who you'd have to think would be a certainty to run in this, regardless of how she gets on beforehand.

[SeanRock]

Missed this thread yesterday...

Backed Ard Abhainn in the last at Gowran tomorrow and for the Mares Novice Hurdle at 40/1.

The form of her Punchestown bumper win is working out nicely & connections seem to be very sweet on her future. Gordon mentioned starting her off in a listed bumper before going over hurdles in his recent stable tour.

[Lobos]

As she’s a juvenile would she not be more likely to go for the Triumph? I don’t know much about the horse but only a few juveniles end up outside their age group (unless owners have multiple strong candidates).

Possibly but Mares have an awful record in the Triumph. She would nearly be fav in the Novice Mares if declared based on her sensational Auteuil win.

[jack1092]

Yep Sean, i was surprised she didn't open fav for this, even if BBB hasn't better form. Think they both could be good mares though.

[jack1092]

Missed this thread yesterday...

Yep Sean, i was surprised she didn't open fav for that, even if BBB hasn't better form. Think they both could be good mares though.

[JackieMoon33]

Her owners have concertista too, who you'd have to think would be a certainty to run in this, regardless of how she gets on beforehand.

Yes Concertista looks to have been deliberately held back to run again after missing out last year and retaining her novice status. Market has not missed her though.

[JackieMoon33]

Possibly but Mares have an awful record in the Triumph. She would nearly be fav in the Novice Mares if declared based on her sensational Auteuil win.

I'm not sure of the stats but do mares have a poor record in the Triumph because they tend to have very few runners?

Conversely, what are the stats for 4 year olds running in the novice races at Cheltenham? I'm not sure they are particularly great either.

Her Auteuil win was against her own age group though, not older novices. I'm not sure you can take the form from different age groups so literally. Older horses will be a different kettle of fish based on growth, scope and progression.

[Lobos]

I'm not sure of the stats but do mares have a poor record in the Triumph because they tend to have very few runners?

Conversely, what are the stats for 4 year olds running in the novice races at Cheltenham? I'm not sure they are particularly great either.

Her Auteuil win was against her own age group though, not older novices. I'm not sure you can take the form from different age groups so literally. Older horses will be a different kettle of fish based on growth, scope and progression.

It was a listed race at Auteuil so the form is strong. The Novice Mares is never that strong form wise.

[jack1092]

It was a listed race at Auteuil so the form is strong. The Novice Mares is never that strong form wise.

Wouldn't say that's strictly true Lobos. It was visually impressive + all that, but Mullin's does have a habit of unearthing very good mares that start off in the MN.

The second has been beat since + hasn't won a race.

[JackieMoon33]

It was a listed race at Auteuil so the form is strong. The Novice Mares is never that strong form wise.

Here's a poser for you then; If they were both running in the same season, would a juvenile Apples Jade have beaten Laurina in the Mares Novices hurdle?

[archie]

The Triumph is a G1 worth about £20k more to the winner than the G2 Mares Novice.

JP's last comparable filly was Apple's Shakira and she went for the Triumph. It will, of course, depend on what happens in the next few months but as it stands it would be about 10/1 FF turning up here.

[JackieMoon33]

The Triumph is a G1 worth about £20k more to the winner than the G2 Mares Novice.

JP's last comparable filly was Apple's Shakira and she went for the Triumph. It will, of course, depend on what happens in the next few months but as it stands it would be about 10/1 FF turning up here.

Where would you stand on the below Archie?

Here's a poser for you then; If they were both running in the same season, would a juvenile Apples Jade have beaten Laurina in the Mares Novices hurdle?

[archie]

Where would you stand on the below Archie?

Here's a poser for you then; If they were both running in the same season, would a juvenile Apples Jade have beaten Laurina in the Mares Novices hurdle?

Probably not if we're talking the Triumph Apples Jade (she seemed to be much better at Aintree) but inter-generational comparisons can only ever be subjective.

[JackieMoon33]

Probably not if we're talking the Triumph Apples Jade (she seemed to be much better at Aintree) but inter-generational comparisons can only ever be subjective.

of course, purely hypothetical...

[Lobos]

Here's a poser for you then; If they were both running in the same season, would a juvenile Apples Jade have beaten Laurina in the Mares Novices hurdle?

Not a hope. Apple's Jade simply isn't the same horse at Cheltenham.