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Completely agree re the market Jono. Was going through it yesterday and found myself repeatedly saying 'won't go' as I went through potential runners, leaving a small number of horses available. Nothing on this side of Irish Sea grabs me if I'm honest. I will probably take 25/1 on Thomas Darby today, but for me its all about having Mullins on side. He's won 4 out of the last 5 Arkles and Melon looks a superb candidate IMO. 12/1 still widely available. Draconien is still a massive 40/1 with Skybet. Those are the two I have positions on at the moment. The elephant in the room is what they elect to do with Laurina. Anyone know if they have publicly stated that she remains hurdling, or is it speculation coming out of the Mullins yard?
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Cant wait to see Rathhill for this. With what he showed at Sandown he doesnt look likely to be good enough but he must be showing them something else at home, looking forward to seeing him over a fence to see what hes got.Comment
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Billy, was there any info on Angels Breath, plans etc...?
If you did and I missed it, apologies.Comment
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No he wasnt mentioned Im afraid.Comment
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No worries, cheers.Comment
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That is a huge negative for me these days. I'd forgotten how much much he liked ADOriginally posted by jono View PostMy biggest concern is the fact that Tom Segal likes him so much
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I'd forgotten how much I hate Tom SegalOriginally posted by Faugheen_Machine View PostThat is a huge negative for me these days. I'd forgotten how much much he liked AD
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In fairness Segal had a half decent Cheltenham this year (having been put off horses I liked cos he selected them)Comment
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Broken clock is right twice a day. His NH P&L is poor. Won’t waste time on himOriginally posted by robith View PostComment
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That is a good point regarding the more accurate rating... I suppose my counter is that in the novice chase division, going for graded races at Cheltenham, how "wrong" the other novice horses hurdle ratings were/are doesn't matter.Originally posted by JackieMoon33 View PostComment
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Segal is completely off the radar nowadays isn't he?
Certianly not been on any podcasts recently.
I've only placed free bets on the Arkle so far.
Nothing has managed to get me to part with any money and that's because there isn't a standout. I wouldn't even say Melon would get me tingling (I personally think he'll go up in trip but seem to be banging that drum alone thus far)
When there are no STANDOUT novice hurdlers.... then I am of the opinion watching their debut is more important than ever. Not one person would have mentioned Dynamite Dollars, or actually ANY of the field that ran in the Arkle... and although a lot of that was down to injury and bad luck, it's still a case of SEEING with this race.
The superstar winners of the Arkle's in recent years, were ALL, already top class....
Jumping is the name of the game without a standout novice hurdler, so with no standout novice hurdler, this race is way too trappy in Sept.Comment
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Gone into the Arkle market for the first time on THOMAS DARBY at 25/1 with Bet365.
Checked all of his videos and breeding.
He is a half-brother to a smart hurdler/chaser Muirhead.
He won his debut NHF race coming through from the rear, then did the same again at Cheltenham’s October Meeting coming from last to stride passed Elixir De Nutz by 3&1/2 lengths off level weights.
He ran well enough on right-handed courses until turning up at Cheltenham in March for the Supreme Novice Hurdle. Again he ran from the rear giving the winner and all of the others a start before coming through to challenge for the places in the straight, despite injury (see trainers comments below).
Harry Fry reports in today’s Racing TV news that “I think that Thomas Darby is very good and the Arkle is the long-term aim for him”
“He is one that really does excite me as he has got a lot of class, and I think we bumped into a freak in the Supreme.”
“He was a big, raw horse last season and struck into himself in that contest and finished lame, so that is why he didn’t run again afterwards, but he is fine now.”"Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".Comment
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Added Al Dancer for this at 35/1.
He's one that I can see shortening if he takes to fences.Comment
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I think he'll shorten too, good old Tom Segal will make sure of that, will you be looking to trade him off?Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
He's another one, like Getaway Trump for me, that I'd be keen up in trip. I don't think they are best suited to 2m.Comment
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With all the information available to punters combined with access to plenty of profitable tipsters, Tom Segal was always going to be found out as a tipster who is unprofitable. It's actually a disgrace he still tips for the RP IMO, cannot stand him (does it showOriginally posted by Kevloaf View Post)
As a backer of Melon he doesn't quite have me tingling, but I am quite excited about him at 16/1.
The two things that strike me when looking at the market are the sheer number of NR's (especially towards the top) and the absence of any real quality novice hurdlers entering the 2 mile chase division, as you point out Kev.
Factoring in Melons festival experience, Willies record in the race and the idea that Melon may improve for a fence, it makes him a very attractive option based on what we know now.
Going up in trip isn't a big concern. I think Willie has more options over 2m5f for the JLT than he does for the Arkle, and having raced almost exclusively over 2m during his career, I have no reason to suspect they will step Melon up in trip given how keen he races and having flopped on both attempts up in trip.
It's definitely a bit of a 'meh' race though that's for sure.Comment
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