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Some of the posts on here recently and the Galway Festival have got me ready for the season to hurry up and start so in order to fill the gap til then I thought why not get my crystal ball out and kick start some of the previews and have a go at a Champion Hurdle 2020 preview. So the market best prices as of writing on 1st August are as follows:
Espoir D’Allen 5/1
Klassical Dream 6/1
Buveur D’Air 8/1
Pentland Hills 16/1
Apple’s Jade 25/1
Fusil Raffles 25/1
Laurina 25/1
Melon 25/1
Aramon 33/1
Elixir De Nutz 33/1
Fakir D’Oudairies 33/1
Honeysuckle 33/1
Saldier 33/1
Verdana Blue 33/1
Band Of Outlaws 40/1
Sharjah 40/1
I have purposely missed out a few of the options in the market, many of which are novice hurdlers that have had comments they are likely to go chasing such as Itchy Feet, Thomas Darby, Felix Desjy, City Island etc.
Logical starting point would be the shortest priced and reigning champion Espoir D’Allen, it certainly wasn’t in the script in March for him to win this in the manner that he did! Full credit to him for picking up the pieces in that race and taking control. I think Walsh gave him a fantastic ride and kept him out of any of the mess that was going on and he does have a solid enough form line. However, I think the winning distance flatters him and BVD running to the line certainly helped him push on and everyone else had fallen off so early such as Melon, who for me should never have been leading that race from the off. I think at 5/1 the odds are too low for me to be looking at him personally as I feel that is a touch too short, but equally I could not knock anyone who fancies a bit of it but I do feel there is better options out there even though he will only be 6YO when he turns up at the Festival next so its not inconceivable that he has more to come.
Seeing as last years race has been mentioned I’ll move onto the triple threat and nearly every bodies winners pre-race last year. Buveur D’air has to be the starting point for me, two-time winner and a horse I really love to watch over hurdles and was willing him to get his third unfortunately he went down so early. Since then he seems to have bounced back slightly with a gutsy showing at Aintree over 2 and a half miles in the Aintree Hurdle then his win of the Punchestown Champion Hurdle (we can count that as a hattrick of Champion hurdles surely….
). I can see how his season will start, the Fighting Fifth and an easy win against subpar British opposition. The prices drops and he goes far shorter than his current price and wins the Buveur D’Air hurdle at Sandown against the usual beach donkeys, so if you want him on side I think its worth taking the 8/1, now here comes the but…. BUT as much as I love him he will be 9 come March and I have a feeling we are seeing him just starting on the decline and in the last 13 years there has been two winner over the age of 7, they were Annie Power & Hurricane Fly. So the question is do you see him in the same league as those two, and I just am not quite convinced he is.
I won’t spend too long on about Apple’s Jade as I think we all know the situation here, a wonderful mare who just does not seem to show that at the Festival, even then 25/1 seems a big price but I wouldn’t want to be on it and realistically she will be sent back to the Mares Hurdle or they may even give the Stayers ago as a last roll of the Prestbury dice. That leads us onto the other mare, and how do you solve a problem like Laurina? She is also at 25s but I wouldn’t be rushing out to back that. I don’t think we quite saw the best of her last year, the Sandown prep race was not ideal at all and was just a light trot really. I would like to see her chasing as watching her over her hurdles suggests this may help her and there is a chance Willie will send her that way. she would also be another one I would be avoiding at this stage for the Champion Hurdle.
Well so far I am avoiding everyone, good start this, which guarantees one of them will surely win of course! So lets throw in someone I’m very excited by, Klassical Dream, at 6/1 he is a little shorter than I would like to go myself on an antepost single this far out, but he will likely start featuring in some multiples for me. He controlled that Supreme field all the way through and Willie has already indicated he will likely send KD this way, 4 hurdles runs last year 4 wins speaks for itself, he jumps well and really does kick on. The one question is perhaps around does he need some cut in the ground but he still managed to win at the Dublin Festival on quick ground and realistically its Day 1 so their will certainly be some cut about. That win over Aramon also showed that he can scrap it out, this far out I think he is the one to beat to be honest, but it will be interesting to see him stepping up into open company.
There are a few more from the Supreme in the market at 33/1 and is your 4th & 6th placed horses in Fakir D’Oudaries & Aramon. I must admit I have not seen anything about the plans with this two to be honest (I don’t know if perhaps Archie may be able to give us any indication around Aramon?), but wouldn’t be surprised to see them turn their attentions to chasing. I think Aramon has some interesting form under his belt, when you look at his runs their looks an element of needing better ground perhaps. As for Fakir, JP has many options in this race already so perhaps Fakir will look elsewhere but at the same time him going to the Supreme was a big sign how highly he was rated and you never know how a 4YO will progress next season. One thing against him is that he was beaten towards the end of the season by 2 other Juveniles in the Champion Hurdle reckoning. Pentland Hills is the shorter priced of the 2 at 16/1 and if I am honest I do not know what to make of that price. Upon re-watching the Triumph I was more impressed by him coming up that hill than I seemed to remember however I am not sure if he is slick enough over his hurdles, but you cannot knock his juvenile form at all. If I had to pick a Juvenile though it would Fusil Raffles. Despite just the 2 runs last season he looked very impressive in his win at Kempton and was so quick over his hurdles and if you take the form on face value of his Punchestown win that puts him towards the top of the Supreme races, all this on his first race return from injury that kept him away from Cheltenham. I could be tempted in at 25/1 as an each way option as it has been indicated they may be trying him in this next year. My main concern is 5YO don’t often have a great record of winning this and it can be a massive step up from Juvenile to open company but at the same time their could be lots of improvement and Espoir showed it is still possible in what was meant to be a star studded field!
To round off the novices from last year we need to take a look at Elixir De Nutz someone at 33/1 who could be of interest as we haven’t had confirmation of him going over fences, but I suspect that will be the case. Honeysuckle the novice mare is available at 33s too another that missed Cheltenham but has a 100% win record from her four hurdles races, including a Grade 1. I must admit I haven’t seen an awful lot of her but I wouldn’t be rushing in to back as I do not feel the form is there at all. The final of the younger horses is Band Of Outlaws at 40/1. I should be careful here as he is due to run in only a few hours in Galway Hurdle so I’m sure I will end up with egg on my face here. I personally do not rate Fred Winter form at all, and even though he had a visually impressive win I do not think there was as much to it as potentially it seems and would even say that the Aintree Juvenile form was far more reflective of where he sits, the defeat to Thomas Hobson does not help matters either as surely a young up and coming horse who will win the Champion Hurdle has to be beating him, but in all fairness I’m happy to use the break as an excuse and judge him on this Galway run. This is certainly the case of anyone who is a big fan good job if you are on at 40s it is worth the punt, but for me he is one I will be avoiding for the time being (until he hacks up and Galway and I have to delete my account….)
Just a few remaining so lets take our mind back to last years race again and 2 of the competitions. Melon is a horse I really like especially around Cheltenham, however it has been said we will be seeing him over big obstacles next year and I think Willie is looking for a way to light him up again, at 25/1 he is lovely e/w territory and it would not shock me if he got reverted to hurdles at some point in the season, however I could even see him lining up in the Coral Cup considering WM is trying him out at longer distance and he is off a workable mark of 155 (just a crackpot theory there), but absolutely not one for CH betting. The other option is Verdana Blue who, like many listed in this, is priced at 33/1. What a lovely mare she is and I thoroughly enjoyed her Scottish Champion Hurdle win but I wouldn’t be touching her for this at all, the ground will likely be against her and I do not believe she has the level of quality required to win this.
That leaves us with the final ones listed, our Ricci pair of Saldier & Sharjah, the later being the higher price of 40/1 compared to the, yep you guessed it, 33/1 of Saldier. Saldier we didn’t see much of last year with just the one outing which he fell and that kept him out the rest of the year. He does have good Juvenile form with his Grade 1 win at Punchestown festival 2018 but his only trip to the Cotswolds resulted in a 25L remote 5th place in the Triumph hurdle, which on face value isn’t ideal but to be honest I wouldn’t read much into it. There is a chance he may go chasing who knows with Mr Mullins and this isn’t one I’d be looking at right now but as with any high price punt I wouldn’t knock anyone who wanted to chance their arm. Of these 2 I think Sharjah is the better option as an each way shout and seems just a touch overpriced to me. Back to Back Grade 1s in the Morgiana & Ryanair Hurdles before the new year before being brought down at Cheltenham. We have no idea how he would’ve ended in that race but there is no reason to believe he wouldn’t have hit the frame, and with wins previously at undulating tracks it looks good on the form book. Would be an interesting one to keep an eye on for me.
The rest of the market is made up of 50/1 shots, and I know it is rather easy to ignore those and not bother making a case, so I have had a look and tried to find a few different angles at big prices because why not! A lot of the bigger prices are novices that I would just not see making the step up or will probably be chasing, however a few that are worth a quick mention, Supasundae is priced up at 50/1, interesting option as he does have 2m form with his last 5 runs at this distance all coming n Grade 1s with form of 11222, however he is of course aging and will be 10YO when it comes to this and I think over 2m you would want rather soft ground to bring his staying into it so probably a risky option as the odds suggest!
Lets mention 2 rather long 100/1 shots, lets be honest these surely won’t be involved but we’ve got plenty of time to kill until March so why not look hey! Palmers Hill is a 6YO who has only had 4 hurdle runs, so who knows he could be an Altior in the waiting?! A JP horse so there must be something to him and has a course win (I’m really clutching at straws now!). The other big price option is Le Patriote has won 3 on the bounce including one at Cheltenham, with the latest being Grade 3 Swinton Handicap Hurdle at Haydock off top weight, he is now at a mark of 154 which would suggest he needs to find another 20 pounds to be involved. Well if Paisley Park could find 29lbs then why can’t Le Patriote and win us all enough to retire……
One final horse to mention is Silver Streak, what a fantastic year he had last year topping it off with his Third place (albeit someway back) in last years race, find it rather strange that he has not been priced up, unless I have missed something, but I would imagine he will with the 50/1 shots.
I’ll be interested to see everyone elses thoughts as I certainly feel there is some value to be had in this years Champion Hurdle but not quite sure where to be looking yet!
Well after all that all I can say is roll on March!!!!!!
Espoir D’Allen 5/1
Klassical Dream 6/1
Buveur D’Air 8/1
Pentland Hills 16/1
Apple’s Jade 25/1
Fusil Raffles 25/1
Laurina 25/1
Melon 25/1
Aramon 33/1
Elixir De Nutz 33/1
Fakir D’Oudairies 33/1
Honeysuckle 33/1
Saldier 33/1
Verdana Blue 33/1
Band Of Outlaws 40/1
Sharjah 40/1
I have purposely missed out a few of the options in the market, many of which are novice hurdlers that have had comments they are likely to go chasing such as Itchy Feet, Thomas Darby, Felix Desjy, City Island etc.
Logical starting point would be the shortest priced and reigning champion Espoir D’Allen, it certainly wasn’t in the script in March for him to win this in the manner that he did! Full credit to him for picking up the pieces in that race and taking control. I think Walsh gave him a fantastic ride and kept him out of any of the mess that was going on and he does have a solid enough form line. However, I think the winning distance flatters him and BVD running to the line certainly helped him push on and everyone else had fallen off so early such as Melon, who for me should never have been leading that race from the off. I think at 5/1 the odds are too low for me to be looking at him personally as I feel that is a touch too short, but equally I could not knock anyone who fancies a bit of it but I do feel there is better options out there even though he will only be 6YO when he turns up at the Festival next so its not inconceivable that he has more to come.
Seeing as last years race has been mentioned I’ll move onto the triple threat and nearly every bodies winners pre-race last year. Buveur D’air has to be the starting point for me, two-time winner and a horse I really love to watch over hurdles and was willing him to get his third unfortunately he went down so early. Since then he seems to have bounced back slightly with a gutsy showing at Aintree over 2 and a half miles in the Aintree Hurdle then his win of the Punchestown Champion Hurdle (we can count that as a hattrick of Champion hurdles surely….
). I can see how his season will start, the Fighting Fifth and an easy win against subpar British opposition. The prices drops and he goes far shorter than his current price and wins the Buveur D’Air hurdle at Sandown against the usual beach donkeys, so if you want him on side I think its worth taking the 8/1, now here comes the but…. BUT as much as I love him he will be 9 come March and I have a feeling we are seeing him just starting on the decline and in the last 13 years there has been two winner over the age of 7, they were Annie Power & Hurricane Fly. So the question is do you see him in the same league as those two, and I just am not quite convinced he is.I won’t spend too long on about Apple’s Jade as I think we all know the situation here, a wonderful mare who just does not seem to show that at the Festival, even then 25/1 seems a big price but I wouldn’t want to be on it and realistically she will be sent back to the Mares Hurdle or they may even give the Stayers ago as a last roll of the Prestbury dice. That leads us onto the other mare, and how do you solve a problem like Laurina? She is also at 25s but I wouldn’t be rushing out to back that. I don’t think we quite saw the best of her last year, the Sandown prep race was not ideal at all and was just a light trot really. I would like to see her chasing as watching her over her hurdles suggests this may help her and there is a chance Willie will send her that way. she would also be another one I would be avoiding at this stage for the Champion Hurdle.
Well so far I am avoiding everyone, good start this, which guarantees one of them will surely win of course! So lets throw in someone I’m very excited by, Klassical Dream, at 6/1 he is a little shorter than I would like to go myself on an antepost single this far out, but he will likely start featuring in some multiples for me. He controlled that Supreme field all the way through and Willie has already indicated he will likely send KD this way, 4 hurdles runs last year 4 wins speaks for itself, he jumps well and really does kick on. The one question is perhaps around does he need some cut in the ground but he still managed to win at the Dublin Festival on quick ground and realistically its Day 1 so their will certainly be some cut about. That win over Aramon also showed that he can scrap it out, this far out I think he is the one to beat to be honest, but it will be interesting to see him stepping up into open company.
There are a few more from the Supreme in the market at 33/1 and is your 4th & 6th placed horses in Fakir D’Oudaries & Aramon. I must admit I have not seen anything about the plans with this two to be honest (I don’t know if perhaps Archie may be able to give us any indication around Aramon?), but wouldn’t be surprised to see them turn their attentions to chasing. I think Aramon has some interesting form under his belt, when you look at his runs their looks an element of needing better ground perhaps. As for Fakir, JP has many options in this race already so perhaps Fakir will look elsewhere but at the same time him going to the Supreme was a big sign how highly he was rated and you never know how a 4YO will progress next season. One thing against him is that he was beaten towards the end of the season by 2 other Juveniles in the Champion Hurdle reckoning. Pentland Hills is the shorter priced of the 2 at 16/1 and if I am honest I do not know what to make of that price. Upon re-watching the Triumph I was more impressed by him coming up that hill than I seemed to remember however I am not sure if he is slick enough over his hurdles, but you cannot knock his juvenile form at all. If I had to pick a Juvenile though it would Fusil Raffles. Despite just the 2 runs last season he looked very impressive in his win at Kempton and was so quick over his hurdles and if you take the form on face value of his Punchestown win that puts him towards the top of the Supreme races, all this on his first race return from injury that kept him away from Cheltenham. I could be tempted in at 25/1 as an each way option as it has been indicated they may be trying him in this next year. My main concern is 5YO don’t often have a great record of winning this and it can be a massive step up from Juvenile to open company but at the same time their could be lots of improvement and Espoir showed it is still possible in what was meant to be a star studded field!
To round off the novices from last year we need to take a look at Elixir De Nutz someone at 33/1 who could be of interest as we haven’t had confirmation of him going over fences, but I suspect that will be the case. Honeysuckle the novice mare is available at 33s too another that missed Cheltenham but has a 100% win record from her four hurdles races, including a Grade 1. I must admit I haven’t seen an awful lot of her but I wouldn’t be rushing in to back as I do not feel the form is there at all. The final of the younger horses is Band Of Outlaws at 40/1. I should be careful here as he is due to run in only a few hours in Galway Hurdle so I’m sure I will end up with egg on my face here. I personally do not rate Fred Winter form at all, and even though he had a visually impressive win I do not think there was as much to it as potentially it seems and would even say that the Aintree Juvenile form was far more reflective of where he sits, the defeat to Thomas Hobson does not help matters either as surely a young up and coming horse who will win the Champion Hurdle has to be beating him, but in all fairness I’m happy to use the break as an excuse and judge him on this Galway run. This is certainly the case of anyone who is a big fan good job if you are on at 40s it is worth the punt, but for me he is one I will be avoiding for the time being (until he hacks up and Galway and I have to delete my account….)
Just a few remaining so lets take our mind back to last years race again and 2 of the competitions. Melon is a horse I really like especially around Cheltenham, however it has been said we will be seeing him over big obstacles next year and I think Willie is looking for a way to light him up again, at 25/1 he is lovely e/w territory and it would not shock me if he got reverted to hurdles at some point in the season, however I could even see him lining up in the Coral Cup considering WM is trying him out at longer distance and he is off a workable mark of 155 (just a crackpot theory there), but absolutely not one for CH betting. The other option is Verdana Blue who, like many listed in this, is priced at 33/1. What a lovely mare she is and I thoroughly enjoyed her Scottish Champion Hurdle win but I wouldn’t be touching her for this at all, the ground will likely be against her and I do not believe she has the level of quality required to win this.
That leaves us with the final ones listed, our Ricci pair of Saldier & Sharjah, the later being the higher price of 40/1 compared to the, yep you guessed it, 33/1 of Saldier. Saldier we didn’t see much of last year with just the one outing which he fell and that kept him out the rest of the year. He does have good Juvenile form with his Grade 1 win at Punchestown festival 2018 but his only trip to the Cotswolds resulted in a 25L remote 5th place in the Triumph hurdle, which on face value isn’t ideal but to be honest I wouldn’t read much into it. There is a chance he may go chasing who knows with Mr Mullins and this isn’t one I’d be looking at right now but as with any high price punt I wouldn’t knock anyone who wanted to chance their arm. Of these 2 I think Sharjah is the better option as an each way shout and seems just a touch overpriced to me. Back to Back Grade 1s in the Morgiana & Ryanair Hurdles before the new year before being brought down at Cheltenham. We have no idea how he would’ve ended in that race but there is no reason to believe he wouldn’t have hit the frame, and with wins previously at undulating tracks it looks good on the form book. Would be an interesting one to keep an eye on for me.
The rest of the market is made up of 50/1 shots, and I know it is rather easy to ignore those and not bother making a case, so I have had a look and tried to find a few different angles at big prices because why not! A lot of the bigger prices are novices that I would just not see making the step up or will probably be chasing, however a few that are worth a quick mention, Supasundae is priced up at 50/1, interesting option as he does have 2m form with his last 5 runs at this distance all coming n Grade 1s with form of 11222, however he is of course aging and will be 10YO when it comes to this and I think over 2m you would want rather soft ground to bring his staying into it so probably a risky option as the odds suggest!
Lets mention 2 rather long 100/1 shots, lets be honest these surely won’t be involved but we’ve got plenty of time to kill until March so why not look hey! Palmers Hill is a 6YO who has only had 4 hurdle runs, so who knows he could be an Altior in the waiting?! A JP horse so there must be something to him and has a course win (I’m really clutching at straws now!). The other big price option is Le Patriote has won 3 on the bounce including one at Cheltenham, with the latest being Grade 3 Swinton Handicap Hurdle at Haydock off top weight, he is now at a mark of 154 which would suggest he needs to find another 20 pounds to be involved. Well if Paisley Park could find 29lbs then why can’t Le Patriote and win us all enough to retire……
One final horse to mention is Silver Streak, what a fantastic year he had last year topping it off with his Third place (albeit someway back) in last years race, find it rather strange that he has not been priced up, unless I have missed something, but I would imagine he will with the 50/1 shots.
I’ll be interested to see everyone elses thoughts as I certainly feel there is some value to be had in this years Champion Hurdle but not quite sure where to be looking yet!
Well after all that all I can say is roll on March!!!!!!
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