Cheltenham 2020 - Forum Yankee - March

[Hurricane fly]

Between them they've had 1 run in over 12 months.


This must be the Mullins factor at work?

Next Destination's form? What bit of that is as good as the winner of an Albert Bartlett.

Maybe you need to review his Punchestown win?

Horses behind him
Delta Work (2018 pertemps winner and a 2 length place in the RSA)
Kilbricken Storm (last years AB winner)
20’lengths back Ballyward (fatally injured but a grade 3 winner over fences, 4th in previous years AB)
24 lengths back Discorama (2nd in NH chase 2019, 2nd in Martin Pipe 2018)
25+ lengths back BBB (2018 Martin Pipe winner)

His form is strong, 3rd in a Ballymore losing to a god like novice on a trip to short, 2 wins over Cracking Smart - which I’m sure for the purpose of this exercise will now be crabbed, 3 wins over this years arkle winner. 4th in the Cheltenham bumper.

But none of that compares to a horse that has won one race and has a defeat to 121 RPR Small Farm on the cards?



At this stage horses that miss the festival are typically where the value is

[SeanRock]

I like carefully selected ... but if he's one of the 4 best bets we can come up with for Cheltenham in 12 months time I'm wasting my time on here.

You know I like him, you know I do, but really think about what you're saying.

I 100% see where your coming from Kev but if we’re just specifically focusing on the novice hurdle form it has to be taken with a pinch of salt given Willie may well have left some of his best weapons at home which may muddy the outlook at the novice chase divisions.

[Kevloaf]

Blackbow shouldn’t be discounted for equal measure. Willie will have plenty of secret weapons over hurdles next term!

I'm well aware that Willie Mullins will have a strong team Sean ...

Unless the ground is the same again.

Hardly missed in the market though ... and global warming sounds like the biggest danger to your festival at this stage

[SeanRock]

I'm well aware that Willie Mullins will have a strong team Sean ...

Unless the ground is the same again.

Hardly missed in the market though ... and global warming sounds like the biggest danger to your festival at this stage

The ground won’t be the same again! In poker terms Willie stuck whereas Gordon twisted on his novice hurdlers this year!

[Kevloaf]

Maybe you need to review his Punchestown win?

Horses behind him
Delta Work (2018 pertemps winner and a 2 length place in the RSA)
Kilbricken Storm (last years AB winner)
20’lengths back Ballyward (fatally injured but a grade 3 winner over fences, 4th in previous years AB)
24 lengths back Discorama (2nd in NH chase 2019, 2nd in Martin Pipe 2018)
25+ lengths back BBB (2018 Martin Pipe winner)

His form is strong, 3rd in a Ballymore losing to a god like novice on a trip to short, 2 wins over Cracking Smart - which I’m sure for the purpose of this exercise will now be crabbed, 3 wins over this years arkle winner. 4th in the Cheltenham bumper.

But none of that compares to a horse that has won one race and has a defeat to 121 RPR Small Farm on the cards?



At this stage horses that miss the festival are typically where the value is

We shall assume Minella Indo is worse than 121 then shall we.

What an embarrassing post.

Does Cheltenham form not hold any relevance for you?

[SeanRock]

We shall assume Minella Indo is worse than 121 then shall we.

What an embarrassing post.

Does Cheltenham form not hold any relevance for you?

Minella Indo is one horse I definitely won’t be underrating especially with Henry’s reputation for improving for fences!

[Hurricane fly]

We shall assume Minella Indo is worse than 121 then shall we.

What an embarrassing post.

Does Cheltenham form not hold any relevance for you?

Of course it does and given ND has run over 2 and 2m4 at the festival his Cheltenham form is very good.

You asked what form does he have to compare to the AB winner. Can you really refute that all of his novice former compares well and imo his Punchestown win rates higher than MI win? If it’s such an embarrassing post it will surely be quite easy to do so.

MI has had 3 runs over timber, a career best, a run that puts him level with Allaho and a defeat in a poor maiden, you can not find one poor run in Next Destinations book, especially over further than 2 miles.

[Kevloaf]

Of course it does and given ND has run over 2 and 2m4 at the festival his Cheltenham form is very good.

You asked what form does he have to compare to the AB winner. Can you really refute that all of his novice former compares well and imo his Punchestown win rates higher than MI win? If it’s such an embarrassing post it will surely be quite easy to do so.

MI has had 3 runs over timber, a career best, a run that puts him level with Allaho and a defeat in a poor maiden, you can not find one poor run in Next Destinations book, especially over further than 2 miles.

His festival form is "very good", I'd dispute. It's 'good' at best! Certaintly isn't up to winning standard (obviously)

I can refute end of season form at Punchestown too. I'll run the numbers on it tomorrow but I'm confident Cheltenham festival form works out stronger at the following years festival than Punchestown form does!

I don't need to find a poor run in ND's form ... his best form isn't as good as MI's best form. It isn't like I've knocked ND, I'm just pointing out that he is NOT the best bet we could find for a March Yankee.

Don't know why I've become such a villan on here over the past week or so but I strand by my comments ... people are getting very defensive about their bets being questioned without any room for debate. Is not like I've changed my style in the last ten days.

[SeanRock]

Hi's form is "very good" I'd dispute. It's good at best. Certaintly isn't up to winning standard (obviously)

I can refute end of season form at Punchestown too. I'll run the numbers on it tomorrow but I'm confident Cheltenham festival form world's out stronger at the following years festival than Punchestown form does!

I don't need to find a poor run in ND's form ... his best form isn't as good as MI''s best form. It isn't like I've knocked ND, I'm just pointing out that he is NOT the best bet we could find for a March Yankee.

Don't know why I've become such a villan on here over the past week or so but I strand by my comments ... people are getting very defensive about their bets being questioned without any room for debate.

Your the polar opposite of a villain on here Kev. Your just merely providing a balanced opposition to the personal opinions which is vital in clearing up the grey area for me in particular! Your opinions are valued greatly by me anyway!

[Hurricane fly]

I don’t see you as a villain I just think you are wrong in this instance.

I haven’t backed Next Destination, Mullins bingo will be horrific until we have some form in the book next season to start figuring out a pecking order.

I would claim his Punchestown win is better than the AB form because of what those horses have done since and where they were when they raced. I just don’t see how ND isn’t up to a winning standard - are only festival winners? - he was screaming out for 3 miles on the back of the Ballymore run, he got it and he battled out a win over a star studded field


Edit: NDs value will hold for the next 6 months aswell so I don’t plan on backing soon either

[Kevloaf]

That's the point though? ND has missed the season for whatever reason and is 25/1.

The Albert Bartlett winner is 20/1.

Straight choice between the two, you're siding with what will be two year old novice form at Punchestown (which by the way has winners of handicaps in, so you can EASILY argue they're looking to run to lower a mark with next year in mind) is NOT a better bet.

Even if Next Destination goes on to be a better horse (and if you care to remember I was very strong on his AB chances) then I still wouldn't think 25/1 today is better than 20/1 for MI.

Also, if you're not keen on backing him now, why so keen to jump in on him compared to the selection I made? This thread is for the March Yankee... if you don't think he's a good bet now, what is your point?

[SeanRock]

Minella Indo is 100% a great selection for the RSA next season based on his Albert Bartlett run last week! He won despite pulling like a steamtrain! I just think it might be worthwhile sidestepping the AB form from a long term view point! Allaho isn’t Willie’s current best staying novice for my money!

[Kevloaf]

Fair enough. We don't need to have Minella Indo in the Yankee ... but we're not having Next Destination either haha

[SeanRock]

Fair enough. We don't need to have Minella Indo in the Yankee ... but we're not having Next Destination either haha

I’d have Minella Indo over Next Destination fwiw I only mentioned him so we wouldn’t be guilty of recency bias! I was only trying to express that it’s worthwhile to think outside the box for future festival winners!

[Hurricane fly]

Kev,

My first post was purely in disagreement with you saying ND has no form in comparison to the AB something I disagree on.

If I were to bet on either horse now I would back ND because I believe it’s a better horse than MI. It maybe 2 year old novice form but I’m happy to use it to justify my claims.

His injury this year was declared not serious and I imagine the date (January) had as much to do with him being put away as anything else.

Therefore if we use Archie’s 3 tier system to figure look at the odds, they both have the same chance of getting there, they both appear to be on course for the RSA so it is then down to what you think is the best horse.

I’m not rushing to back ND because I’m not rushing to back anything outside of the any race markets, but if I was (or for this Yankees purpose) I would plump for ND over MI for the RSA.


Edit:
As i put earlier my choice would be Delta Work GC, he lost by about the same distance he lost when squeezed at the last, he doesn’t lose any ground on the run in and is a great price.

Also like Cilaos Emery at 20/1 for the QMCC - any news on if he will reappear at Punchestown?