Cheltenham 2020 - Ante post bets

[Faugheen_Machine]

I'd imagine Stayers rather than CH seeing as she breezed through that 3m1f

Can't see why they would go anywhere other than the mares tbh.

[jono]

I cant see any scenario where Benie goes for the Champion Hurdle next season. She's not a 2miler at all and the further the better for her. And she won't go chasing either. Unless they want to try and exploit her mark over fences (147) at some point but even then I cannot see a situation where she lines up in a grade one chase in the Spring. Mares or Stayers only imo and that win makes me think it's far more likely to be the Stayers Hurdle.

Particularly as you have Laurina to add into the mix. Mullins clearly wanted Laurina in the Mares last season but the owners got their wish. That shows they fancy having a good crack with her but I wonder if the eventual outcome means they may just let Willie dictate this season...2mile hurdling is out and No reason why she is ahead of BdD in the stayers pecking order now. Chasing or the Mares then...and I'll still be gobsmacked if as touched on above Mullins lines up any mare over a fence in the Arkle/JLT/RSA whatever the/any owner wants.

I took the 48/1 double (laurina mares / benie stayers) after the race Saturday

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

I'd imagine Stayers rather than CH seeing as she breezed through that 3m1f

Yeah I came on to say the same. I mentioned before that I originally back BDD for the Mares at a boosted 6.5/1 but had a bigger top up at 5.4/1 when I realised you could get that price any race with Hills. At that point my concern was a potential CH tilt (same as FM) similar to Annie Power. However I thought it was not so likely if KD was fit as she'd still be more likely to run in the Mares perhaps alongside Laurina as Mullins has done similar in the past. That performance at the weekend confuses things further though and she is now into just 8/1 for the Stayers.

BDD at 4s for the Mares before the weekend was still one I was keen to put in multis and free bets but not any more especially at her current price. I think with Penhill's fragility and Laurina waiting in the wings Any race is the only play but there ain't much if any value left in the current price in May 2019. It will be interesting to find out what the plan is for Laurina in particular.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

I cant see any scenario where Benie goes for the Champion Hurdle next season. She's not a 2miler at all and the further the better for her. And she won't go chasing either. Unless they want to try and exploit her mark over fences (147) at some point but even then I cannot see a situation where she lines up in a grade one chase in the Spring. Mares or Stayers only imo and that win makes me think it's far more likely to be the Stayers Hurdle.

Particularly as you have Laurina to add into the mix. Mullins clearly wanted Laurina in the Mares last season but the owners got their wish. That shows they fancy having a good crack with her but I wonder if the eventual outcome means they may just let Willie dictate this season...2mile hurdling is out and No reason why she is ahead of BdD in the stayers pecking order now. Chasing or the Mares then...and I'll still be gobsmacked if as touched on above Mullins lines up any mare over a fence in the Arkle/JLT/RSA whatever the/any owner wants.

I took the 48/1 double (laurina mares / benie stayers) after the race Saturday

Wrote my post before reading yours Jono, will add that double with 365. You can get 62s with Coral but I'll be placing nearly all my multis with 365 especially where the targets are far from certain as in this case.

Update: Having rewatched the CH again there isn't enough in that Laurina performance to get me interested in backing her at this stage even in a multi. Can completely see the logic as if BDD is aimed at the Stayers Laurina would be sure to shorten for the Mares assuming she stays over hurdles. But it's still so early I want to pretty strong on something if getting involved and I ain't there yet with this Mare

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Joe Chambers (Riccis Racing manager) mentioned after her win at the weekend that her chase mark is now favourable......

[Faugheen_Machine]

Joe Chambers (Riccis Racing manager) mentioned after her win at the weekend that her chase mark is now favourable......

Hennessy could be a possibility I suppose.

[Hurricane fly]

As discovered at the Chester preview night, UK handicapper rules mean a chase and hurdle mark has to be within 10lbs of each other so it’s worth looking at Irish handicaps.

[BigChaang]

Added Sam's Profile today , to my A/P selections . @ 33-1 with coral for the R.S.A.
Paid for with my weekend winnings

[Kevloaf]

I'd freaking love Benie Des Douvan to go over fences.

It'd be against the grain in terms of what we'd expect from "connections" however I think what we expect can't be relied upon, with Ruby's role changing.





I do like the double jono and RC have mentioned but I'll have a bit more of a think about it tomorrow...

[Istabraq]

Are fences a target or are they just throwing options out there ?
Making the switch is only worthwhile if you have a plan, and I’m struggling to see where she would target if fences were her future.
Surely she won’t have the speed for a Champion Chase and questionable whether she’d stay a Gold Cup trip, so would the long term aim be a Ryanair where connections already have Min ?

Sounds like another Vroum Vroum Mag where they don’t know so could enter the horse in every race they allowed to, making her as a punting proposition near impossible...

[Kevloaf]

Are fences a target or are they just throwing options out there ?
Making the switch is only worthwhile if you have a plan, and I’m struggling to see where she would target if fences were her future.
Surely she won’t have the speed for a Champion Chase and questionable whether she’d stay a Gold Cup trip, so would the long term aim be a Ryanair where connections already have Min ?

Sounds like another Vroum Vroum Mag where they don’t know so could enter the horse in every race they allowed to, making her as a punting proposition near impossible...

Yeah very true.

I wanted VVM to go back over fences too - but I completely understand why they won't.

[jono]

Worth noting that Mullins said this after her Mares Hurdle win in 2018

March 2018

..."Ruby was brilliant on her but she only just got home. She really needs a trip and will go way back up in trip and back over fences now

Then at the start of the following year:

November 2019

Benie could do anything. She is a fantastic jumper. We would love to go chasing with her, but what I want to do is keep her for the mares' hurdles. I think she might mix it a little bit. We kept her sound all last year and I think she is probably easier to keep sound over hurdles. The Mares' Hurdle at Cheltenham would, in my view at the moment, be her aim, unless something changes in the meantime

So she hasn't yet gone over fences and kept at the same distance for the Spring festivals, though did go up to 3m1 in France last time out. I have no doubt they'd still love to go back over fences with her in an ideal world but her fragility, and the past evidence of how they campaign their mares lead me to be almost certain it won't happen for all it would be great to see.

The above isn't a knock on him just i'm taking the recent comments as Willie just throwing a few ideas around contemplating options like he often does. Like I said and agree with Ista I would really see it as either looking to exploit a lower chase mark or targeting a few Mares only races aka VVM - not an indication of where she will end up next Spring / longterm

[Istabraq]

Jono

Any more quotes from Nov 2019 ?
I’m hoping you can pull something out that references the Eclipse, Galway, Derby and Leger winners plus a few from Royal Ascot and a nice yankee from Goodwood.

On a serious note, anything Mullins says comes with a health warning, he is a genius but has to accommodate so many top class horses and I doubt Ricci will want Min and BDD taking each other on for a Ryanair

[somer1]

Suprised no one has said anything about Interconnected on here yet.I see sky bet has him at 16/1 anyrace but was thinking of getting a price for the spud race.

[Kevloaf]

Suprised no one has said anything about Interconnected on here yet.I see sky bet has him at 16/1 anyrace but was thinking of getting a price for the spud race.

Bought as being a future Gold Cup horse in mind - would suggest to me he's a chasing type.... if he gets beaten as a hurdler they might not care and that'd put me off for next season.

Could well start shorter though with the price tag around his neck.