Cheltenham 2020 - Ante post bets

[Kevloaf]

Couple of free bets to use today thinking about putting 1 on emitom Stayers hurdle ew at 33/1 and saldier 33/1ew champion hurdle, any thoughts on these 2 for these races?

I'd say there is loads more appeal backing Saldier than Emitom.

I wouldn't trust Warren Greatrex to get a horse to Cheltenham on top of its game.

He favours pot hunting (as has been highlighted by people close to connections on here) and to be honest, he's just over rated anyway.

Stepped up to 3 miles he got beaten by Champ and although that's not bad form at all, it doesn't make him stand out value at 33/1.




Saldier however, Mullins mentioned this year may come to early as a CH horse but would be one for the season after (i.e. 2020) so a little if I could only back one of those two, it'd be Saldier

[Nwfb89]

Ye I remeber Mullins saying that re saldier that's why I had him in mind kev, and after re watching his only race from this season at naas when he fell at the last he was going pretty well at the time hard to know whether he would have beaten espoir dallen or not but would have been a close finish and we all know what he went on to achieve this season so I think I'm going to use my paddy power free bet on saldier can boost it to 35/1 aswell which is a bonus

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

What do people think about Botani as an ante-post punt? She couldn’t have been more impressive in her Killbeggan bumper where she won by 23 lengths. Trained by a little known trainer called Willie Mullins. Normally I would be sceptical of the form of a Killbeggan bumper but she did beat a De Bromhead horse, a Gordon Elliott horse and Joseph O’Brien horse. She wasn’t stopping at the end and is surely one for the Mares Novice Hurdle. Currently she is 14-1 in William Hill’s ‘win any race’ market.

[Kevloaf]

What do people think about Botani as an ante-post punt? She couldn’t have been more impressive in her Killbeggan bumper where she won by 23 lengths. Trained by a little known trainer called Willie Mullins. Normally I would be sceptical of the form of a Killbeggan bumper but she did beat a De Bromhead horse, a Gordon Elliott horse and Joseph O’Brien horse. She wasn’t stopping at the end and is surely one for the Mares Novice Hurdle. Currently she is 14-1 in William Hill’s ‘win any race’ market.

Which horses has he had win that bumper before?

What horses have the others had in that race?

Is any race worth it if the target is fairly obvious?

What did connections say about her?




I've not looked at any of these things yet, or even the race... but at 14/1 I'd start off sceptical and see if I can be won around rather than look to back her at that price.

[Old Vic]

I wouldn't trust Warren Greatrex to get a horse to Cheltenham on top of its game.

What about Gavin Cromwell and Martin Brassil ? Do we all carry a bit of small trainer bias ?

[Kautostar]

Greatrex seems to be obsessed with aintree for some reason

[Kevloaf]

What about Gavin Cromwell and Martin Brassil ? Do we all carry a bit of small trainer bias ?

No I don't think I've fallen in to that category?

The point for Warren Greatrex is that he pot hunts rather than targets the Cheltenham festival at this stage in his career.

His campaigning of La Bague Au Roi has been great, but also backs up the fact I wouldn't put money on him getting a horse to Cheltenham, as he would look elsewhere.

[BigChaang]

Too late for me as Iv'e backed Emitom for the Stayers @ 25-1 already ,.
But holding back on City Island now until the New season / autumn.
Although if the Stayers remains the Target race , probably have a bet on C.I.

[Old Vic]

No I don't think I've fallen in to that category?

The point for Warren Greatrex is that he pot hunts rather than targets the Cheltenham festival at this stage in his career.

His campaigning of La Bague Au Roi has been great, but also backs up the fact I wouldn't put money on him getting a horse to Cheltenham, as he would look elsewhere.

Fair enough.

Greatex probably wouldnt like to be considered a small trainer anyway.

[jono]

Another good new pod to listen to:

Jumping2Conclusions

https://anchor.fm/ryan-bliss

Only 3 episodes so far. Harry Derham is on each week and it focuses on Ditcheat. Paul Nicholls was on in the latest episode (Will Biddick and Megan Nicholls 2 episodes prior). Really good listen and something a bit different being an insight into the yard, much like his blog.

On the latest pod PN when talking about unraced / bumper horses without prompt goes onto mention once again a good word for Pic D'Orhy as a novice chaser next season.

Seeing him at 100/1 for the CH I got b365 to quote for the Arkle (33/1) and JLT (25/1). Such was his price for the CH I had hoped for 50's so disappointed but makes sense I guess. CH has an established Fav in Espoir D'Allen, a (Willie Mullins...) and a confirmed top novice stepping into it in Klassical Dream to shape the market. Where as the Arkle is way more fluid and yet to form (as shown by Klassical Dream heading the market and Laurina (imo very unlikely to go chasing) close second. So with that in mind such a big price was always unlikely?

They are both also really excited about their bumper horses (the likes of Ask for Glory, McFabulous) going forward this year into novice hurdle campaigns and talk about their change of approach with them. Well worth a listen

[ComplyOrDie]

Another good new pod to listen to:

Jumping2Conclusions

https://anchor.fm/ryan-bliss

Only 3 episodes so far. Harry Derham is on each week and it focuses on Ditcheat. Paul Nicholls was on in the latest episode (Will Biddick and Megan Nicholls 2 episodes prior). Really good listen and something a bit different being an insight into the yard, much like his blog.

On the latest pod PN when talking about unraced / bumper horses without prompt goes onto mention once again a good word for Pic D'Orhy as a novice chaser next season.

Seeing him at 100/1 for the CH I got b365 to quote for the Arkle (33/1) and JLT (25/1). Such was his price for the CH I had hoped for 50's so disappointed but makes sense I guess. CH has an established Fav in Espoir D'Allen, a (Willie Mullins...) and a confirmed top novice stepping into it in Klassical Dream to shape the market. Where as the Arkle is way more fluid and yet to form (as shown by Klassical Dream heading the market and Laurina (imo very unlikely to go chasing) close second. So with that in mind such a big price was always unlikely?

They are both also really excited about their bumper horses (the likes of Ask for Glory, McFabulous) going forward this year into novice hurdle campaigns and talk about their change of approach with them. Well worth a listen

Whilst Will Hill have trouble spelling his name they have him 'any race' @ 25's (bigger if boosted), which is what I have taken already. Probably the way to go currently.

[ComplyOrDie]

Saldier is currently my biggest AP 'any race' bet @ 22's with WH.

I can see he's been mentioned a few times on here already but had him in the 'notebook' from a couple of seasons back and backed him last season early on too. I'm hoping he has a change in fortune and he makes it to the 2020 festival as I think he can be a serious player wherever he ends up.

[Middle_Of_March]

My first antepost bet for next year was Pic D’Orhy for any race at 25s. 3 points each way. Placed the day after the festival ended.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Another good new pod to listen to:

Jumping2Conclusions

https://anchor.fm/ryan-bliss

Only 3 episodes so far. Harry Derham is on each week and it focuses on Ditcheat. Paul Nicholls was on in the latest episode (Will Biddick and Megan Nicholls 2 episodes prior). Really good listen and something a bit different being an insight into the yard, much like his blog.

On the latest pod PN when talking about unraced / bumper horses without prompt goes onto mention once again a good word for Pic D'Orhy as a novice chaser next season.

Seeing him at 100/1 for the CH I got b365 to quote for the Arkle (33/1) and JLT (25/1). Such was his price for the CH I had hoped for 50's so disappointed but makes sense I guess. CH has an established Fav in Espoir D'Allen, a (Willie Mullins...) and a confirmed top novice stepping into it in Klassical Dream to shape the market. Where as the Arkle is way more fluid and yet to form (as shown by Klassical Dream heading the market and Laurina (imo very unlikely to go chasing) close second. So with that in mind such a big price was always unlikely?

They are both also really excited about their bumper horses (the likes of Ask for Glory, McFabulous) going forward this year into novice hurdle campaigns and talk about their change of approach with them. Well worth a listen

Thanks for this Jono, will try and have a listen. Just out of interest did Harry give a reason for his disappointing performance in the Triumph? I know he hadn’t had a prep run in this country and I know Scooby thought he should be race fit based on what he had done in France. I also recall him being a big drifter on the morning of the race which may have suggested connections weren’t expecting him to set the world alight

[somer1]

Chacun Pour Soi, Laurina, Klassical Dream & Honeysuckle all to place any race
28/1
This bet is really jumping out at me but am tossing a coin if to or not.What do you guys think of it?