Ultima Handicap Chase 2019

[Kevloaf]

Cant understand the interest in this horse? doesn't fit trends for this race.

The interest? ...because the majority of successful punters don't follow blindly trends?

Has a horse placed in a Gold Cup and that has won a 4 miler ever raced in this race? I wouldn't have thought so (Holywell closest?) and I wouldn't care either way.


The interest shouldn't be hard to fathom?

[luisgarciaisgod]

It's not so much the Gold Cup place per se, more the festival form which is more crucial, I just name dropped the race as it is the blue ribbon of the festival

It's not just you who've brought it up, few people using the GC run as a plus point for this. I'm guilty of it somewhat myself, having backed Kilultagh Vic for the Coral Cup with a run in the GC and a previous festival win.

[doctorwu]

The interest? ...because the majority of successful punters don't follow blindly trends?

Has a horse placed in a Gold Cup and that has won a 4 miler ever raced in this race? I wouldn't have thought so (Holywell closest?) and I wouldn't care either way.


The interest shouldn't be hard to fathom?

Its not just trends, you basically need an improving horse for this race.

[Istabraq]

sorry I'll rephrase that, who was the last horse to be placed in a Gold Cup to come back and win a different race at the festival, preferably a handicap since plenty using this as an angle regarding MR

Almost impossible.
You run well in a Gold Cup your rating will be so high you are unlikely to drop to a level you can win a festival handicap and the only half suitable handicap would be the Ultima.
Small chance a chaser may revert back to hurdles and benefit from a lower mark but I can't recall this ever being done...

[Faugheen_Machine]

COD,
You need a horse showing signs of improvement for this race. 22s is only value if he delivers.........I can't have him at all.
All the best with him.

Would you have had Holywell and UTPT as improvers when they won it on the second occasion?

[Kevloaf]

Its not just trends, you basically need an improving horse for this race.

You need an improving horse?
yet another trend is:
Best rating over 3m.

Can a step up in trip not bring out improvement?



A 100% trends based approach to any race is flawed IMHO. A broken clock is right twice a day though, so let's hope some of our selections align

[Istabraq]

Would you have had Holywell and UTPT as improvers when they won it on the second occasion?

Anyone remember Beuna Vista ?
Runner up in Pertemps first year, won second year, third attempt at the race at aged 10 he came there tanking won 4l and was being pulled up 50 yards from the line.
Ridiculous performance....

Not that it has anything to do with the Ultima !

[doctorwu]

You need an improving horse?
yet another trend is:
Best rating over 3m.

Can a step up in trip not bring out improvement?



A 100% trends based approach to any race is flawed IMHO. A broken clock is right twice a day though, so let's hope some of our selections align

Hardly a good analogy Kev.
The best RPR over 3m is flawless so far, so I'll be sticking to it.
lets visit this again after the race.
Someone will be having a slice of humble pie.

[ComplyOrDie]

I have absolutely no doubt some of the races will go the way the trends say. But they are not the holy grail. I followed them religiously for a long time, including my first year as a poster on here. I've done better using them as a guide rather than factual evidence, because, as quite a few people have said, not just on here, but some of these previews too, you can get trends to fit a potential horse/bet, it's called confirmation bias.

I weigh some trends heavier than others, race dependant of course.

Now I'm not, and have never said Minella Rocco is the plot of the festival, but he ticks plenty for me at a price I'm happy with. In these races I usually end up 3 or 4 handed, also have CSS @ 33's, plus a couple of others, one of which is a likely non runner.

[doctorwu]

I have absolutely no doubt some of the races will go the way the trends say. But they are not the holy grail. I followed them religiously for a long time, including my first year as a poster on here. I've done better using them as a guide rather than factual evidence, because, as quite a few people have said, not just on here, but some of these previews too, you can get trends to fit a potential horse/bet, it's called confirmation bias.

I weigh some trends heavier than others, race dependant of course.

I only use them as a guide COD. But I will take some of them literally. I also stay well clear of certain trainers at the festival. I don't back A.King novices etc.

[Folski]

Its not just trends, you basically need an improving horse for this race.

Not true at all.

8 of the last 9 were horses on the perceived decline having achieved higher marks previously.With the average of the 8 having being 8.5lb higher at one stage. Jonjo's 2 winners had being 13lb & 15lb higher than their current mark. Minella will run 14lb below his peak mark of 166. 5 of 9 had won or placed in a grade 1 over 3m.

I think he hits an awful lot of trends.

[Kevloaf]

Hardly a good analogy Kev.
The best RPR over 3m is flawless so far, so I'll be sticking to it.
lets visit this again after the race.
Someone will be having a slice of humble pie.

Well Minella Rocco's best RPR is certainly over 3m so he's in the mix then?

Flawless.

[doctorwu]

Race distance - 3 miles and about one furlong. Will be aged between 7 and 9 yrs. Will have run before at the Festival or will be 7 or 8 yrs and improving i.e. with a rising handicap rating. Winner’s handicap rating over 140. Will have recorded their best Racing Post Rating over at least 3 miles. This rating will be at least 143. Will have already won at least a Class 3 chase.

All winners this century had recorded their best RPR over at least 3 miles.

[doctorwu]

Well Minella Rocco's best RPR is certainly over 3m so he's in the mix then?

Flawless.

There ya go. Job done.

[Kevloaf]

To go back to the post I first highlighted, where you couldn't understand why people liked this horse as he doesn't fit the trends..... these are the trends from Gaulstats...

Summary

Race distance - 3 miles and about one furlong.

Will be aged between 7 and 9 yrs.
Tick for Minella Rocco

Will have run before at the Festival or will be 7 or 8 yrs and improving i.e. with a rising handicap rating.
Tick for Minella Rocco

Winner’s handicap rating over 140.
Tick for Minella Rocco

Will have recorded their best Racing Post Rating over at least 3 miles.
Tick for Minella Rocco

This rating will be at least 143. Will have already won at least a Class 3 chase. If a novice, will have won a hurdle worth at least £10k to the winner.
Tick for Minella Rocco

Has won over 3 miles or at least placed over 3 miles in two of last three runs.
Fail for Minella Rocco

Will have run between 3 and 12 times over fences in UK and/or Ireland.
Fail for Minella Rocco


Will have run at least twice this season.
Tick for Minella Rocco

Will have been 1^st or 2^nd sometime this season. 1st or 2nd in either of last two chase runs or at least 3rd last time.
Fail for Minella Rocco

Winners over 11st becoming a lot more frequent.
Tick for Minella Rocco

Any price. One of the top weights to be placed.
Tick for Minella Rocco

Wasn't unplaced in this years Betbright Chase. If wins this after running in this season's Newbury Hennessy back it in the Grand National. Has run in the last 45 days.
Tick for Minella Rocco

P Nicholls N Henderson poor enough records. W Mullins yet to have a runner.
Tick for Minella Rocco

Watch for D Pipe, Tony Martin and Jonjo trained.
Tick for Minella Rocco

Wears some type of headgear.
Tick for Minella Rocco

Irish trained don't win but get placed.
Tick for Minella Rocco

No F, R, B or U as last form entry. Not a claiming jockey. Half a furlong longer in distance from 2014
Tick for Minella Rocco





I almost wish I was a trends backer based on that! Jeez!
If he doesn't win... I'll blame the trends boys