Supreme Novice Hurdle 2019

[Faugheen_Machine]

Does anyone have the exact comments from Gordon regarding Battleoverdoyen NOT running at 2 miles?

I can cash out for profit, but am still tempted to wait for the NRNB price (hopefully within the next 48 hours!)

I don't have the quotes but listened to his interview and he said that he wouldn't be stepping back in trip. You lose night by waiting 24 hours. I think they'll go nrnb tomorrow.

[Kevloaf]

Thank-you.

That's pretty conclusive. I will probably wait for tomorrow, he's not going to get pushed out over night is he!

[jono]

Interesting reading.

Just to rattle your cage, is the point that stands out there, than despite the absolute wealth of talent Henderson has, and some superb horses, only 3 have them have been under 4/1?

Is there not a line of thought that says he has super talented horses, that go on to be better after their novice hurdle campaign, and he doesn't get the best out of them?

His record as you've highlighted isn't bad, and I wouldn't avoid backing his horses anyway, but with all that talent, none of them seem to turn up in March as fancied beasts, which is the most surprising thing?

Of all his best horses over the last 5-10 years i'd say only Sprinter Sacre and Buveur D'Air would fit that category ("better after their novice hurdle campaign, and he doesn't get the best out of them?").

BvD the obvious one coming into the Supreme at 10/1 and then winning 2 CH's after. But he was priced up as the 3rd shortest price runner and he ran to that placing.

Sprinter Sacre was 11/1 in the Supreme and then was one of the best chasers of all time. But he was quite clearly a much much better chaser than hurdler. And again he ran to a place that his price suggested (3 lower prices horses than him finished 1st, 2nd, 4th)

Of his best / highest profile horses over the last 8 years to have run in the festival novice hurdle races...

Santini
Current Fav for the RSA. Yet to prove but huge potential
11/4F - 3rd in the Albert Bartlett

Altior
Best horse currently in training
4/1 2ndFav - 1st in the Supreme

Buveur D'Air
2 time Champion Hurdler
10/1 - 3rd in the Supreme

My Tent Or Yours
Runner up in 3 Champion Hurdles
15/8F - 2nd in the Supreme

Darlan
Was 9/2 for the CH and looked to have the beating of Rock on Ruby at Doncaster (who finished 2nd in the CH that year) but a fatal injury falling at the last
7/1 - 2nd in the Supreme

Spirit Son
Destroyed Cue Card by 13 lengths and Rock on Ruby by 8 lengths at Aintree but sadly lost his life
5/1 2ndFav - 2nd in the Supreme

Sprinter Sacre
3rd Highest rated chaser of all time
11/1 - 3rd in the Supreme

Simonsig
Won the following years Arkle, looked a superstar but was plagued with injuries there after
2/1F - 1st in the Neptune

Bobs Worth
Won an RSA, Gold Cup, Lexus and Hennessy
15/8F - 1st in the Albert Bartlett

Hard to say he didn't get the best out of any of them in that initial novice hurdle season.

He's arguably got the strongest hand in the novice hurdlers this year but we've already seen Pym, Rathhill, I Can't Explain (who I really liked) and Downtown Getaway (slightly harsh?) all disappoint to varying degrees. Claimintakinforgan the year before, Jenkins the year before that...

My view would be that his horses are usually overbet at the start of each season (which happens with most of the bigger trainers) BUT if come March he's got a well fancied runner they are very likely to justify their price and come very close or winning and it's then when i'd be reluctant to take them on.

Will be interesting to see what price and how fancied Champ is after Trials day and on Wednesday morning (a horse I haven't backed) likewise Angels Breath (a horse I have backed)

On the note of Henderson novice hurdlers...Dickie Diver, another potentially promising Point to pointer and another JP owned horse is running tomorrow at Chepstow, 2m3

[boopa]

Nicholls hasn't had a runner in this since Irving. Criminally underused.

[Folski]

Of all his best horses over the last 5-10 years i'd say only Sprinter Sacre and Buveur D'Air would fit that category ("better after their novice hurdle campaign, and he doesn't get the best out of them?").

BvD the obvious one coming into the Supreme at 10/1 and then winning 2 CH's after. But he was priced up as the 3rd shortest price runner and he ran to that placing.

Sprinter Sacre was 11/1 in the Supreme and then was one of the best chasers of all time. But he was quite clearly a much much better chaser than hurdler. And again he ran to a place that his price suggested (3 lower prices horses than him finished 1st, 2nd, 4th)

Of his best / highest profile horses over the last 8 years to have run in the festival novice hurdle races...

Santini
Current Fav for the RSA. Yet to prove but huge potential
11/4F - 3rd in the Albert Bartlett

Altior
Best horse currently in training
4/1 2ndFav - 1st in the Supreme

Buveur D'Air
2 time Champion Hurdler
10/1 - 3rd in the Supreme

My Tent Or Yours
Runner up in 3 Champion Hurdles
15/8F - 2nd in the Supreme

Darlan
Was 9/2 for the CH and looked to have the beating of Rock on Ruby at Doncaster (who finished 2nd in the CH that year) but a fatal injury falling at the last
7/1 - 2nd in the Supreme

Spirit Son
Destroyed Cue Card by 13 lengths and Rock on Ruby by 8 lengths at Aintree but sadly lost his life
5/1 2ndFav - 2nd in the Supreme

Sprinter Sacre
3rd Highest rated chaser of all time
11/1 - 3rd in the Supreme

Simonsig
Won the following years Arkle, looked a superstar but was plagued with injuries there after
2/1F - 1st in the Neptune

Bobs Worth
Won an RSA, Gold Cup, Lexus and Hennessy
15/8F - 1st in the Albert Bartlett

Hard to say he didn't get the best out of any of them in that initial novice hurdle season.

He's arguably got the strongest hand in the novice hurdlers this year but we've already seen Pym, Rathhill, I Can't Explain (who I really liked) and Downtown Getaway (slightly harsh?) all disappoint to varying degrees. Claimintakinforgan the year before, Jenkins the year before that...

My view would be that his horses are usually overbet at the start of each season (which happens with most of the bigger trainers) BUT if come March he's got a well fancied runner they are very likely to justify their price and come very close or winning and it's then when i'd be reluctant to take them on.

Will be interesting to see what price and how fancied Champ is after Trials day and on Wednesday morning (a horse I haven't backed) likewise Angels Breath (a horse I have backed)

On the note of Henderson novice hurdlers...Dickie Diver, another potentially promising Point to pointer and another JP owned horse is running tomorrow at Chepstow, 2m3

I would echo a lot of this. Are horses not suppose to improve for their novice hurdle season anyway? You could say the opposite about Mullins, that he gets so much out of horses in their novice seasons that they don't kick on in open company. Of the ones that have Faugheen was one of the best ever, Vautour was a superstar but had a some blips here and there, Annie Power always had a light campaign and didn't go to Cheltenham as a novice, The Fly also missed Cheltenham as a novice.

When you compare the list of horses Hendo has had in recent years to Mullins with the exception of Altior & BD it would seem he's had very poor novices the last few years. This year IMO he is miles ahead and I think he might be champion trainer ahead of Gordo & Willie, I would definitely fancy him to win more G1s that them but Gordon might nick it with the hcaps.

[Kevloaf]

Changed my mind.... see below

[Kevloaf]

and actually I'm not sure I do agree with it only being Sprinter Sacre and Buveur D'air.



My Tent Or Yours, if good enough to come 2nd in 3 CH's with a year break, should have been beating a stayer in Champagne Fever, who couldn't even beat Western Warhorse the year after

Santini - is almost certainly going to prove he was better after his novice season, yet to actually do it, but there is no way he's not a better horse than Kilbricken Storm, after just 6 months and a fence...under achieved (and he was quite open about that being 'the plan' and him being minded for fences, which is all well and good, but for actual talent and running around a field at 3 miles, he's just a better horse than he showed.)

Darlan - would it be hugely unfair to say he should have won the Supreme? He was that short for a CH and so well fancied. Unable to ever be proven but you can't say he 'over achieved' as a novice when he was expected to do so well in the CH. I think he under achieved with him on the face of it.

Simonsig -Doesn't prove that he was better as a novice. His Arkle win was brilliant as well... at best he did the same.

Bobs Worth - Tough horse, obviously did well in the Albert Bartlett, but again I'd disagree, it's harder to win a Gold Cup than an Albert Bartlett, so Bobs Worth was a better horse too after his novice campaign.




So, have any of those horses you've named actually been BETTER as a novice hurdler? I don't think we can say that at all

[KingSprinterSacre]

Just to nit pick, while i did love Simonsig and was all over him the years of his neptune and arkle, his arkle wasnt that impressive. He was all out to beat Bailey Green from what i rememember. Gave me a scare on course that day

[jono]

...

So, have any of those horses you've named actually been BETTER as a novice hurdler? I don't think we can say that at all

My point was on the "he doesn't get the best out of them" in their novice year rather than whether they are "better after their novice hurdle campaign". Clearly it's harder to win a Gold Cup than an Albert Bartlett

I'd hope and want to see all horses improve from their novice season (as Folksi points out and questions Mullins) otherwise there is either a problem/issue or they were just flattered. No one wants a Samcro...

My Tent Or Yours and Santini were the 2 favourites of his that have got overturned and you could arguably pick holes in that they should have done better in their novice hurdle races...

Santini - To use the good old cliche...anything he did other hurdles is a bonus etc etc...was an out and out chaser. To get him to come third in an AB when ground was against him could be argued as a positive towards Henderson rather than a negative?

My Tent Or Yours - 1/2 length 2nd behind Champagne Fever and ahead of the following years CH winner Jezki is picky. Even so, he was a horse who was incredibly keen early on and it took several seasons to really get to grips with him. Again, it could be viewed that Henderson did well to get him so competitive so early on in his career.

[Kevloaf]

Not getting the best out of them, so that they can be better after their novice hurdle campaign.

I think we're saying the same thing

MTOY won the Betfair, so it wasn't like he wasn't a good novice that year anyway, and Santini trained by another trainer may have done better in the Albert Bartlett. We'd never know, but it also may have been detrimental to a chase campaign, so he'd have been wrong to try if that's how he see's it.

[Middle_Of_March]

Made the decision tonight to study every race over the next couple of weeks from scratch. Started with the Supreme and going from there.

Champagne Platinum is the one who stands out in my opinion. Will he run here do we think or the Ballymore?

[Morley Street]

Made the decision tonight to study every race over the next couple of weeks from scratch. Started with the Supreme and going from there.

Champagne Platinum is the one who stands out in my opinion. Will he run here do we think or the Ballymore?

I’ve been looking at him closely too MoM. We all know trainers are creatures of habit and it’s interesting that he won the same introductory hurdle at Newbury that My Tent came second in on route to the Betfair. If CP is Hendos Betfair horse he could shorten significantly when the entries are out.

[Middle_Of_March]

I’ve been looking at him closely too MoM. We all know trainers are creatures of habit and it’s interesting that he won the same introductory hurdle at Newbury that My Tent came second in on route to the Betfair. If CP is Hendos Betfair horse he could shorten significantly when the entries are out.

I’m quite tempted to have a few quid on.

However, I made a rule this season not to back horses antepost for this race. I ended up backing Felix Desjy and Annamix in November and was annoyed with myself for caving in.

If I was to have a bet on CP now, or would have to be NRNB. So for that reason, I may as well wait for some more bookies to go NRNB and hope one goes bigger than the 12s with Skybet. I’ll be interested to see if he’s their Betfair Hurdle horse. An informative race for the Supreme isn’t it despite being for all ages.

[Scooby91]

I’m quite tempted to have a few quid on.

However, I made a rule this season not to back horses antepost for this race. I ended up backing Felix Desjy and Annamix in November and was annoyed with myself for caving in.

If I was to have a bet on CP now, or would have to be NRNB. So for that reason, I may as well wait for some more bookies to go NRNB and hope one goes bigger than the 12s with Skybet. I’ll be interested to see if he’s their Betfair Hurdle horse. An informative race for the Supreme isn’t it despite being for all ages.

Maybe request a price for the double on the lads that fancy the bf hurdle he's 20s for that so maybe 150s the double to a small stake. Is that generous I don't know.
Or could roll it over

[boopa]

Could Aramon end up being Willie's number 1 by default