Cheltenham Gold Cup - 2019.

[DonnyBoy]

The numbers on soft/heavy v good/soft tell you why. Not much room for misconceptions. I'm not saying he can't be competitive on good/soft, but this a tougher race than last year where it was soft.

Fair point and I agree about the race being tougher. Could easily be soft this year as well and if so should be favourite on the day on all known form.

[boopa]

Whether the horse wins or not is almost irrelevant to the fact that it just isn't true that it needs heavy ground to be competitive. Was only beat 3l in a gold cup on good ground in an above standard time. He isn't a slow boat, not even close .


There seems to a huge misconception regarding ground dependency for this horse and I just cant see why. When he hasn't won, them form figures are hardly desperate are they, and all in top class races.

He's not as good as he was last year. That Gold Cup was brutal he hasn't travelled or jumped like the same horse since.

[Altior]

Ye'll all be eating crow when Thistlecrack is nodding his head on the bridle up the hill!

[Kevloaf]

I have a different view on Native River.
I’m not convinced he’s ground dependent but what he does need is a serious stamina test and 3m around flat tracks like Haydock and Kempton will never play to his strengths, so the good ground failures (not winning) need more delving, I thought his King George effort was outstanding.
26.5f is the perfect test for NR, whatever ground is thrown at him...

16 runs over fences and never out of the 3.

Some record!


It's 100% a price thing for me, but I totally understand the appeal, I just don't want to back it.

I've only had a handful of bets at single figures and this won't be one I wouldn't have thought.


If Native River is about to join Kauto Star, Best Mate, Arkle, and the other ABSOLUTE SUPERSTARS in the last hundred years to win multiple Gold Cups (7 I think in total), then he'll do it without me backing at 5/1 on this seasons form.

[DonnyBoy]

He's not as good as he was last year. That Gold Cup was brutal he hasn't travelled or jumped like the same horse since.

The phrase Horses for courses I believe was made for Native River. Only ran twice though since last years race. Over them fences that came in for much ridicule at Haydock which suited no one and the KG where looking like tailing off at one stage finished with a right old rattle to finish 4th on a track he doesn't take to. Now onto where he the champion .

[Altior]

Just think last year took a lot out of both MB and NR. At that price you couldn't back him confidently.

[boopa]

The phrase Horses for courses I believe was made for Native River. Only ran twice though since last years race. Over them fences that came in for much ridicule at Haydock which suited no one and the KG where looking like tailing off at one stage finished with a right old rattle to finish 4th on a track he doesn't take to. Now onto where he the champion .

Watch his performance at Newbury and compare it to his runs this season. I wouldn't bet double figures personally.

[DonnyBoy]

Fair enough boopa. Good luck on your selection mate.

[boopa]

I love the horse he's made me a fair bit over the past few years. Couldn't back him at the price now. He's priced as if it's a soft ground Gold Cup.

[Chaser1980]

I love the horse he's made me a fair bit over the past few years. Couldn't back him at the price now. He's priced as if it's a soft ground Gold Cup.

It wont be a good ground gold cup whatever the weather after the BHA fatalities report. They will be watering the shit out of it wouldnt be suprised if the festival starts on watered soft ground this year and they will probably water over night during the festival. They just cant take any chances this year

[archie]

It wont be a good ground gold cup whatever the weather after the BHA fatalities report. They will be watering the shit out of it wouldnt be suprised if the festival starts on watered soft ground this year and they will probably water over night during the festival. They just cant take any chances this year

I really don't understand this line of thinking. Last year's fatalities were on soft ground so why would you aim for that this year?

[boopa]

Tizzard on Native

He's a stamina horse and looks fit. We'll school him on Wednesday for a bit of practice and then hold our nerve. I hope Cheltenham put plenty of water on this week then it rains like hell then it will be nice, heavy ground for him.

[archie]

As close to objective as I can get:

3/1 Presenting Percy
A thorough stayer who will be seen to best effect on softer going. May be the next superstar and win going away but may also get taken off his feet early on. Idiosyncratic preparation. Seems a very short price.

7/2 Clan Des Obeaux
Had a good season and looked very useful at Kempton and Ascot. Not absolutely certain to stay and, being a third season chaser with 13 chase runs, would be a little against the trends.

5/1 Native River
Another thorough stayer who's already been there and done it. Looks likely to give followers a proper run for their money but win chances greatly improved by soft ground.

9/1 Kemboy
Big improver in the last year and has beaten most of the other Irish. Stamina doubts in some quarters but trainer says he'll improve for the extra distance. Jumping an issue last season but has been ok the last three times. Probably the pick on a trends analysis.

10/1 Bellshill
Like Clan Des Obeaux a third season chaser but fewer runs than CDO. Good and improved performance the last time and likely mount of Ruby. Likely bang there with a clear round.

12/1 Road To Respect
Ground against him last year but has gone down twice at Leopardstown and it's hard to see him reversing the form. Would have a big chance in the Ryanair and trainer still not ruled out that race.

12/1 Al Boum Photo
One of last season's top staying novices. Not tried at open G1 level because of the ground and possible non-runner if the going is better than soft.

12/1 Might Bite
Looked nothing like last season's horse recently and age stats very much against him.

14/1 Thistlecrack
Age again an issue and also stamina doubts.

16/1 Frodon
A little under the radar because the high rating has mainly been obtained in handicaps. Can't see it winning but an early bold show likely.

16/1 Anibale Fly
Will need soft ground and likely to find others better even then.

16/1 Monalee
50:50 this race or the Ryanair but not really gone on from last season.

Others to consider:
20/1 Elegant Escape - may run a place in a real bog.
25/1 Shattered Love - better than this season's form and the mares' allowance will help.

You're welcome.

[mayo]

The real reason PP cant win

https://www.irishracing.com/blog-item?headline=Can-A-Knob-Joke-Really-Win-The-Gold-Cup-&prid=198062

[BigChaang]

Good Summary Archie ., I think that's fair.