Cheltenham Gold Cup - 2019.

[jonthehammer]

I don't really go by trends in most races but in this I generally do. Horses do tend to win it on their first run. Its like Djakadam never carried any of my money for this race, he kept coming back and some punters thought "this is his year" but it never was.

Having said that I do think RtR is an improving type but I think he will find 1 too good. Which one I am not sure of at this stage.

[Kevloaf]

Depends if you think the front 2 have regressed. Id say RTR has strengthened up a little and improved a few pounds for maturity.

I do, but I think I'll wait to see how the novice crop from last year get on in the Durkan and so on...

I am pretty confident they were a really good group on the whole so I am leaning towards everything from last year being surpassed...

[charlie]

The Gold Cup is a strong trends race. Age is against kemboy and Al Boum Photo. Only two 6yo's have won it in the past 50 odd years.

Jumping ability is against Al Boum Photo

[Scooby91]

Jumping ability is against Al Boum Photo

Too early to taint him with that brush. Hed had 7 runs in his life going into the rsa . He's a serious engine. When it comes together don't be suprised If he lines up single figures in the gold cup with ruby on his back.

[ComplyOrDie]

He was also absolutely walloped by Might Bite in their RSA.

I can't decide whether to add Road To Respect at 16/1 with 365 e/w tonight.

I think he's the best value if I had to have a bet now as I said earlier on... but I don't have to have a bet - and I don't know if he's a likely winner of the race, after falling quite well short last time, ground against him but was against others too that out performed him?

I don't see how you can use the RSA from 2 seasons back as a case, especially as they were 'novices', when you then are contemplating RTR up who got 'walloped' by Bellshill in the Punchestown Gold Cup, which is a lot more recent form?

RTR has since come out and smashed the opposition in the JN Wine Champion Chase, to boost the form.

I'd say Bellshill has grown and matured since his novice days. I could not point out the winner of this race to you right now, indeed I probably still won't on the day, but for horses that are overpriced, Bellshill is one of them @ 25/1.

[Scooby91]

I don't see how you can use the RSA from 2 seasons back as a case, especially as they were 'novices', when you then are contemplating RTR up who got 'walloped' by Bellshill in the Punchestown Gold Cup, which is a lot more recent form?

RTR has since come out and smashed the opposition in the JN Wine Champion Chase, to boost the form.

I'd say Bellshill has grown and matured since his novice days. I could not point out the winner of this race to you right now, indeed I probably still won't on the day, but for horses that are overpriced, Bellshill is one of them @ 25/1.

That wasn't RTR true running. End of a long season. You've got sub lieutenant just behind him there.

[ComplyOrDie]

That wasn't RTR true running. End of a long season. You've got sub lieutenant just behind him there.

That I don't doubt, but you could argue the same for Bellshill as a novice.

Bellshill has shown improved form stepping out into open company.

[boopa]

Ruby mentioned the right-handed stat on RUK. He said there isn't any reason for it, if anything it should be better going left. I don't think it's the winner but it has the potential to half in price.

[Scooby91]

That I don't doubt, but you could argue the same for Bellshill as a novice.

Bellshill has shown improved form stepping out into open company.

You'll soon find out in the king George. . Atleast he's got more confident in his jumping.

[Kevloaf]

I don't see how you can use the RSA from 2 seasons back as a case, especially as they were 'novices', when you then are contemplating RTR up who got 'walloped' by Bellshill in the Punchestown Gold Cup, which is a lot more recent form?

RTR has since come out and smashed the opposition in the JN Wine Champion Chase, to boost the form.

I'd say Bellshill has grown and matured since his novice days. I could not point out the winner of this race to you right now, indeed I probably still won't on the day, but for horses that are overpriced, Bellshill is one of them @ 25/1.

As I said at the end, I can see him getting shorter in price. The walloping behind Might Bite is more relevant because it was at Cheltenham and Bellshill has never put together a good run there. Might not be anything in it, but I don't think he'll be my idea of the winner.

I don't disagree that he potentially over priced at all. I just think I'll be against him on the day. Two different things

[ComplyOrDie]

As I said at the end, I can see him getting shorter in price. The walloping behind Might Bite is more relevant because it was at Cheltenham and Bellshill has never put together a good run there. Might not be anything in it, but I don't think he'll be my idea of the winner.

I don't disagree that he potentially over priced at all. I just think I'll be against him on the day. Two different things

I think you can discount the Supreme, being over 2m, he was never going to make a 2m hurdler and the only reason he went there was because Yorkhill ran in the Neptune (Ballymore). His other defeat at Cheltenham was his first try over 3m when novice chasing, and given his results prior to that he was a better horse over shorter that season so IMO to finish 3rd in what was a bit of an odd RSA was actually respectable. Again, I am adament he goes JLT had Yorkhill not been around that season.

He has had to play second fiddle to Yorkhill, as under same ownership, maybe he was viewed as more of a long term plan, it certainly hasn't done him/them any harm. He certainly looked a different horse last season and I expect more improvement this coming season. Hoping he can take the Don Cossack route in winning the Punchestown Gold Cup prior to the Cheltenham Gold Cup, though I might add, as like you Kev, Presenting Percy is currently my biggest winner in the race.

[boopa]

Bellshill was held up in the RSA. Swerved a faller early on. Travelled nicely through the race and jumped well. Might Bite quickened off a strong pace and he couldn't really get into it. Track will not be a problem.

Always been backed like it's a very good horse. By far the best horse in the Irish National always leading but didn't quite see it out on heavy ground. Owner, trainer and jockey have said it's their main Gold Cup hope and it's the right age to have a crack at it. 25/1 is overs.

[Scooby91]

Bellshill was held up in the RSA. Swerved a faller early on. Travelled nicely through the race and jumped well. Might Bite quickened off a strong pace and he couldn't really get into it. Track will not be a problem.

Always been backed like it's a very good horse. By far the best horse in the Irish National always leading but didn't quite see it out on heavy ground. Owner, trainer and jockey have said it's their main Gold Cup hope and it's the right age to have a crack at it. 25/1 is overs.

"Owner, trainer and jockey have said it's their main Gold Cup hope"

They'd have to say that, they can't pick out a novice who hasn't had a trial yet. Djakadams retired. Kilultagh vic can't jump. And total recall comes up short of the level required. Theres nothing else there.

Alboum photo is a better novice than djakadam was. Djakadam was a questionable jumper too. But he learned on the job and came up just short (fine horse)

[ComplyOrDie]

Bellshill was held up in the RSA. Swerved a faller early on. Travelled nicely through the race and jumped well. Might Bite quickened off a strong pace and he couldn't really get into it. Track will not be a problem.

Always been backed like it's a very good horse. By far the best horse in the Irish National always leading but didn't quite see it out on heavy ground. Owner, trainer and jockey have said it's their main Gold Cup hope and it's the right age to have a crack at it. 25/1 is overs.

Agree, unsure why he is 25/1 to be perfectly honest. Interested to see where he ends up first time out, entered in John Durkan & King George currently.

[archie]

Bellshill is 1lb off being the highest rated chaser in Ireland and I put him in at 12/1 when I tried a book. However, not unlike Might Bite, there's just the suspicion of a slight mental kink.

Any bet before the Christmas meetings, and maybe even the Dublin Festival, is speculative because there are so many that have the Ryanair as an alternative including most of boopa's earlier list. Definitely a cash-out or NRNB job for anything in single figures.