Champion Hurdle 2019

[ComplyOrDie]

^Sublimity ?

Won his first start over hurdles, then failed to win in the Supreme, same as current champion Buveur D'air.

[billymag]

Rock on Ruby won his first then failed to win three after although he came up against some very smart animals.

[Kevloaf]

What would worry me about last seasons Supreme is that the horses are all pretty close together, 5L back to 5th and 12L back to 9th.

Experienced horses and older horses tend to out run their odds in the Supreme but they are usually not the horse to take out of the race. Usually there is a star 5 year old who didn't know his job, wasn't as developed physically and lacked experienced and they become the stars. The classic example is Jezki who was well held in the Supreme but came back to win the Champion in a then course record time the year after.

Altior looks an exception to the rule but not many horses win a Supreme by 7L so maybe we should take note when we see emphatic winners a la Douvan & Vautour. Sizing John & Buveur D'air both finished held 3rds in Supremes and went on to win a Gold Cup and Champion Hurdle respectively, as 5 year olds.

Last years though reminds me of the Cinders & Ashes Supreme, a lot of horses well bunched, Go Native's Supreme was similar. I'm not sure there is a star in there.

An interesting few points, like a lot of what you've said there.

The general consensus seems to be it was an okay year at best, so it'll be really interesting to see how it plays out.

I am not ruling out Summerville Boy / Kalashnikov going on to be very good horses, but I am certainly more wary of them that I would be other years with the 1-2 in a Supreme.

The example regarding Cinders and Ashes being a casing point - I have a huge soft spot as he was my first bet on course at myu first visit to Cheltenham, and I over estimated him for quite some time afterwards

[ComplyOrDie]

If Betfair (links with the Elliott yard) are anything to go by then it looks like we have our decision regarding Samcro.

They have pushed him out in EVERY chase market, 10's JLT, 12's Arkle & 20'S RSA, and have today cut him for the CH to 7/2!

I think we had this sort of move for the horse around this time prior to his first run last season I believe.

Maybe the 7's with Bet365 are worth jumping on now?

[Faugheen_Machine]

If Betfair (links with the Elliott yard) are anything to go by then it looks like we have our decision regarding Samcro.

They have pushed him out in EVERY chase market, 10's JLT, 12's Arkle & 20'S RSA, and have today cut him for the CH to 7/2!

I think we had this sort of move for the horse around this time prior to his first run last season I believe.

Maybe the 7's with Bet365 are worth jumping on now?

It's a brave move if they don't have the info. I'm taking the 7/1. Cheers CoD

[ComplyOrDie]

It's a brave move if they don't have the info. I'm taking the 7/1. Cheers CoD

No problem, obviously it is speculation based on what the market is showing, but I had already told myself I would back Samcro once Betfair made a move in the market for him.

Betfair partner PP also made these same moves.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Not entirely speculation. Barry Orr of Betfair has posted a picture of Samcro in the last 30 minutes,they are obviously at the yard. I'm doubling my stake.

[ComplyOrDie]

Not entirely speculation. Barry Orr of Betfair has posted a picture of Samcro in the last 30 minutes,they are obviously at the yard. I'm doubling my stake.

Hadn't seen that.......

[Faugheen_Machine]

Hadn't seen that.......

I've put him in a fair few multis too. Thanks again CoD.

[Hurricane fly]

I’ve put 2U on with bet365, and would like to confirm they are offering cash out as it stands this year

[Faugheen_Machine]

He'll be an easy trade on the exchanges if anyone plays it that way.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Best price 4/1 now. Announcement imminent

[ComplyOrDie]

IF they choose to go this route they must be happy with the team they have for novice chases, I mean, we've mentioned a load of them already on Fatjockey, so we know they have strength, I guess the Champion Hurdle makes sense on that basis alone.

Also makes me think Melon will go chasing this season, I mean, he just come up short last season, and would now have Samcro to contend with also, I don't think that will happen, could well be wrong though, obviously.

[KingSprinterSacre]

Makes up for a great showdown to look forward to, but i was really wanting to see him over a fence.

[KingSprinterSacre]

I’ve put 2U on with bet365, and would like to confirm they are offering cash out as it stands this year

They seem to be. Offering cashout on my antepost bet from today