2019 festival ante post yankees

[archie]

I know I've banged on about this before but, 11 months ahead of time, no horse can be considered value in single figures and 6/4 is about the odds I'd want for any horse even turning up.
Every year the bookies offer odds about the 4 major champions defending their crown and every year you're lucky to see more than one succeed.

However, this is a great thread for discussion and argument and everyone can and should go their own way.

[cwright23]

Altoir in the QMCC must surely go in an acca.. it’s the only race I can see where literally nothing can beat him? He even proved this year that he could win it with a less than perfect prep.. no history of injury and target 100% assured.. it’s literally like a savings account for 12 months

[Kevloaf]

I'm all for these yankees mainly for fun ...

In terms of serious bets archie is absolutely right.

6/4 is value (or not) whether it's a single or a multiple. If you wouldn't place the single you SHOULDN'T place it on the multiple is a pretty sensible rule that I try to stick to.

To back up archies point. If Altior's 'puss' happened 24 or 48 hours later, he wouldn't be the Champion Chaser... so 6/4 isn't value now. Albeit he'd likely to be shorter.

HOWEVER I would still have no problem including him in this yankee despite the above

[Birds Nest]

I'll go along with that as long as this years race hasn't emptied him.
If it came up deep again he'd get pulled I think, so his participation is very ground dependent and whilst I will have something on him between now and March 2019 I don't think he is value at this stage whereas we know Percy goes on any ground and have to assume his will stay

Ive also got concearns with might bite turning 10 next year..think cool dawn was the last 10yr to win a gold cup?

[Istabraq]

To back up archies point. If Altior's 'puss' happened 24 or 48 hours later, he wouldn't be the Champion Chaser... so 6/4 isn't value now. Albeit he'd likely to be shorter.
:

Much was made of Altiors ‘lameness’ but, not sure I mentioned this, the preview eve I went to on the Monday, the day the news broke, Jerry McGrath said they were concered for about 15 mins but as soon as the vet and farrier had taken a look his participation was never in doubt.
He never missed a minutes work since he hit full training and even cantered on Tuesday morning, so I think what we saw was a 100% Altior and let’s be honest, if that wasn’t a 100% Altior then he’ll be a scary horse next year....

[Istabraq]

Ive also got concearns with might bite turning 10 next year..think cool dawn was the last 10yr to win a gold cup?

Yes, though there have been three other 10yo winners in the last 30 years, Cool Ground, Charter Party amd Dessie.
Also, in Might Bite’s defence, he wouldn’t be a typical 10yo in that when he starts next seasons campaign he will only have had 15 trips to the racecourse and although I think age trends are very strong at Cheltenham he won’t have the miles on the clock of a normal 10yo....

[Bigfish]

Yeh, I agree with all that. He's just definitely the one to beat.
Even if we knew Footpad was going for the race... Footpad would still need to improve on what we've seen!
(Through no fault of FOotpad's) he's not been able to actually put in a true runningyet either. When PM was having his first run back he had an advantage and SC/PM went too quick on the Arkle, somewhat exaggerating the winning margin (untiul proven otherwise).... so I'd have Altior all day. Not original, as he's 6/4... but is true?

If we see Altior and Great Field with Footpad for good measure. That would be a crackerjack of a race. Great Field is their big chance 20s.won't last IMO.

[MrMcGoldrick]

So up to now it looks like the first yankee starts with
Altior QM
Then given concerns expressed regarding age and going for Might Bite our Gold cup selection will be Presenting Percy, this also gets a boost from the lack of follow up wins in the championship races.
Just need to get the other two in now, I think with the doubts around targets I would be inclined to stick with BVD for the CH, but more than happy to go with concensus views, definitely looking for Summerville boy in one at some point, trainer has already said this is the race he'll be aimed at.
I personally like the look of Next Destination for the stayers, but again there are target issues, so let's see what the majority are with

[MrMcGoldrick]

I know Bigfish likes Great field for the QM, Sizing potsie was put up for the Supreme on the ap thread, and a couple have been given a big shout in the rsa, so there is already some ammo for the next yankee.

[Bigfish]

Another that I fancy and hope to be aimed at the JLT is Lostintranslation for Colin Tizzard. Its a proper chasing type. I haven't seen it priced up on my accounts yet.

[Faugheen_Machine]

So up to now it looks like the first yankee starts with
Altior QM
Then given concerns expressed regarding age and going for Might Bite our Gold cup selection will be Presenting Percy, this also gets a boost from the lack of follow up wins in the championship races.
Just need to get the other two in now, I think with the doubts around targets I would be inclined to stick with BVD for the CH, but more than happy to go with concensus views, definitely looking for Summerville boy in one at some point, trainer has already said this is the race he'll be aimed at.
I personally like the look of Next Destination for the stayers, but again there are target issues, so let's see what the majority are with

Summerville boy won't run again this season so his price shouldn't change much over the next few months. There is the potential for BVD's price to shorten should he put up a good performance at Aintree which is why I'd include him in the first one. I do like Summerville boy though.

[Birds Nest]

At some stage id like to add gilgamboa for the foxhunters..

[Faugheen_Machine]

You're keen BN - foxhunter betting not available yet but I imagine he'll be ante post fav.

[somer1]

Dont shoot me down to quickly but i can see Footpad being one of the best 2 milers in a long time.The way it won at cheltenham in March tells me it will stay at 2 miles.But who knows what "The Mullins" is thinking?

[Unhomme]

Dont shoot me down to quickly but i can see Footpad being one of the best 2 milers in a long time.The way it won at cheltenham in March tells me it will stay at 2 miles.But who knows what "The Mullins" is thinking?

IMHO I think that Footpad's performance was the best of all at the festival. Altior Vs Footpad in the QM? Oh yes please!