Stayers Hurdle 2019

[Istabraq]

Also, Penhill won well this year and now Bloomy has other/better options for his famed Melbourne Cup bid the biggest reason not to back him to follow up appears to be a non issue.
Best staying hurdler in training last year and available at 9/1 (or thereabouts) to follow up seems generous to me...

[Kevloaf]

Also, Penhill won well this year and now Bloomy has other/better options for his famed Melbourne Cup bid the biggest reason not to back him to follow up appears to be a non issue.
Best staying hurdler in training last year and available at 9/1 (or thereabouts) to follow up seems generous to me...

It's a superb price. Still.

I know this isn't always relevant, but look at the price of the market leaders in the other championship races...

Might Bite 13/2
Presenting Percy 6/1
Native River 8/1

Buveur D'air - 7/2
Melon 8/1

Altior 7/4
Footpad - 9/2


Defending champions are 8/1, 7/2 and 7/4 so Penhill is the biggest price of all the defending champions. (You can argue Native River is a decent price at 8/1 too)

He's a bigger price than Footpad and Presenting Percy, who have both got to go in to open company and prove they're good enough, whereas Penhill has been there and done it. He's also a bigger price than Might Bite, who's clearly a classy horse with a good chance but he still got beaten and is a shorter price.

He's a bigger price than Melon.... so Melon, who came 2nd in the Champion Hurdle and still has to reverse that form, is a bigger price than Penhill?! I'd love to see a case for somebody to back Melon at 8/1 instead of Penhill at 9/1.



It'd be ignorant to ignore the fact Faugheen beat him 13L at Punchestown (which is why I imagine the price is there).... but Faugheen isn't an ante post prospect at 5/1 for any race - his form was in and out, he's had loads of issues and despite there be no arguement in my mind that Faugheen is a better horse than Penhill, Penhill will be 8 next season, and Faugheen will be 11. If Faugheen makes it to Cheltenham and hacks up again, then fair enough, I dare say I'd be backing him on the day of the race and cheering him on by the time we get to it, but we won't get to it... and for ante-post punters, the 9/1 for Penhill is outstanding compared to the rest of the markets in my opinion.

[Middle_Of_March]

I agree with the 9/1 being value Kev.

I couldn’t back Faugheen but my heart would love to see him win his prep race over this trip before turning up at 11/10 at his beloved Cheltenham over a trip he won’t be outpaced over at his age.

As a horse racing fan, I would just love to be there to see the great Faugheen get punted off the boards and the roar go up one more time as The Machine takes three lengths out of the field. Just imagine that...

[The Don]

Rewatch last years race and follow Bacardys - very poor ride going all the way across the track then all they way back to the inside but was still closing big time when he fell and with a better ride undoubtedly the winner.
Risk they try chasing again but 25s would be huge if he turned up in this on the same form.

[Istabraq]

Rewatch last years race and follow Bacardys - very poor ride going all the way across the track then all they way back to the inside but was still closing big time when he fell and with a better ride undoubtedly the winner.
Risk they try chasing again but 25s would be huge if he turned up in this on the same form.

I’ll take a look when I’m back home Don.
I always dismissed that generation (rightly or wrongly) as a poor bumper crop then the novice hurdle ranks.
Hitting the deck 3 times in his young career is a habit not a blip but Mullins has had plenty of similar types and ironed out their issues so maybe he is one to consider....

[Faugheen_Machine]

I was on Bacardys but didn't see it as a poor ride. It was a slowly run race, when everyone was anticipating Sam Spinner setting a proper gallop, and it didn't suit number of horses in the race but I wouldn't attach any blame to Patrick.

[archie]

Bacardys comes on and off the bit like a yoyo. Patrick is the only one to get any kind of tune out of him.

[The Don]

Really? It was a horror I thought, was in behind and fluffed the 2nd last and was bumped along moved 7 horses wide around the turn behind a wall of horses then yanks him back inside when travelling like a dream all the way back to the inside..... covered an extra 25 yards at least. If hed just waited down the inside would have been a clear run and I think he would have won

[archie]

Really. Have a look back at the 2017 Deloitte.

[jono]

I was on Bacardys that day as well (along with Supasundae) and though. He was going very well at the end of the race and he absolutely does all his best work at the finish i'm not certain he would have beaten either Penhill or Supasundae. Though I do think he would have been nailed on for 3rd though at least.

Bacardys comes on and off the bit like a yoyo. Patrick is the only one to get any kind of tune out of him.

I'd 100% agree with this. His record with Patrick onboard reads 11311F0. The fall was at Cheltenham when going well and looking like he'd at least place. I don't think there are too many excuses to give at Punchestown though he was along with La Bague Au Roi the only horses to really keep tabs with Faugheen and the pace he was setting up front which may well have contributed to his tame finish (LBAR also finished well beaten in 7th albeit way ahead of Bacardys) Even so one bad run from 7 and 4 wins (2 grade 1s) is very good. His record on Walsh and Townend reads 3FP3F. I would actually say it's credit to Patrick for getting hime in that position and other jockeys may not have been able to do so.

If connections did keep to hurdles with him he would be of some interest but I fully expect him to go chasing again. Without going too far off topic...

At the time Mullins was clear they only reverted back to hurdles to keep his novice status over fences for next season. The vibes coming out from the yard at the start of last season were actually really positive with Bacardys and how he was taking to fences so it was quite surprising how he fared in his 2 chase starts last season as you couldn't have got that same feeling when watching him back.

They may well have a few types for the race but Bacardys stands out by a mile for me in the 4 miler for next year (33/1), particularly as i'd agree with archie in that Patrick is the only one to really get a tune out of him. Although he didn't fare too well in those chase runs, I think they could work out to be a blessing in disguise. Rathvinden, Tiger Roll, Cause of Causes all had plenty of experience over fences before wining the race (either through an extra year over fences or running throughout the summer)

Patrick onboard, an extra year over fences, a clear stayer who does his best at the end of his races - an ideal type.

[cpfcpatriot]

I was on Bacardys that day as well (along with Supasundae) and though. He was going very well at the end of the race and he absolutely does all his best work at the finish i'm not certain he would have beaten either Penhill or Supasundae. Though I do think he would have been nailed on for 3rd though at least.

I'd 100% agree with this. His record with Patrick onboard reads 11311F0. The fall was at Cheltenham when going well and looking like he'd at least place. I don't think there are too many excuses to give at Punchestown though he was along with La Bague Au Roi the only horses to really keep tabs with Faugheen and the pace he was setting up front which may well have contributed to his tame finish (LBAR also finished well beaten in 7th albeit way ahead of Bacardys) Even so one bad run from 7 and 4 wins (2 grade 1s) is very good. His record on Walsh and Townend reads 3FP3F. I would actually say it's credit to Patrick for getting hime in that position and other jockeys may not have been able to do so.

If connections did keep to hurdles with him he would be of some interest but I fully expect him to go chasing again. Without going too far off topic...

At the time Mullins was clear they only reverted back to hurdles to keep his novice status over fences for next season. The vibes coming out from the yard at the start of last season were actually really positive with Bacardys and how he was taking to fences so it was quite surprising how he fared in his 2 chase starts last season as you couldn't have got that same feeling when watching him back.

They may well have a few types for the race but Bacardys stands out by a mile for me in the 4 miler for next year (33/1), particularly as i'd agree with archie in that Patrick is the only one to really get a tune out of him. Although he didn't fare too well in those chase runs, I think they could work out to be a blessing in disguise. Rathvinden, Tiger Roll, Cause of Causes all had plenty of experience over fences before wining the race (either through an extra year over fences or running throughout the summer)

Patrick onboard, an extra year over fences, a clear stayer who does his best at the end of his races - an ideal type.

That’s a cracking shout at that price when you consider the odds he was for the RSA this time last year.

[somer1]

As said on a diff thread i can see Apples Jade coming here next year.I think they know where they went wrong with her last year (running over diff distences and running her to much.She clearely stays 3m and how often did you see Big Bucks,Inglis Drever,Baracouda running over trips to short and so often?I clearly think shes worth a punt for next year.

[Faugheen_Machine]

As said on a diff thread i can see Apples Jade coming here next year.I think they know where they went wrong with her last year (running over diff distences and running her to much.She clearely stays 3m and how often did you see Big Bucks,Inglis Drever,Baracouda running over trips to short and so often?I clearly think shes worth a punt for next year.

I'd have thought they'd take the easier option and go for the mares again because it certainly wasn't the trip that beat her at Cheltenham. It'll be interesting to see if Elliott can get her back her best this season.

I may be biased though having already backed her for the mares before Punches town

[jono]

As said on a diff thread i can see Apples Jade coming here next year.I think they know where they went wrong with her last year (running over diff distences and running her to much.She clearely stays 3m and how often did you see Big Bucks,Inglis Drever,Baracouda running over trips to short and so often?I clearly think shes worth a punt for next year.

I'm a massive fan of Apple's Jade, thought she was an absolute certainty in the Mares this year and also thought she would bounce back and beat BdD at Punchestown but I couldn't back her for any race right now I just don't think she was right in the Spring and I couldn't be confident Elliott can get her back to the form she was in pre Christmas time. (Though I don't necessarily agree with some that say she might be finished) and if that's the case I don't think she'll be winning at either trip. She just didn't look the same horse that we had got used to seeing and she certainly wouldn't have lost to the likes of Midnight Tour and Augusta Kate (no disrespect).

I think Rory Delarghy made the point at the time (or someone else definitely did) that if Elliott thought she was in anything like the form of her early season races then they would have surely ran her in the Champion Stayers Hurdle at Punchestown when the trainers title was still up for grabs. Instead they held her back for a race 2 days later in a race worth €100k less.

A watching brief for me until she shows her best form again and even then I would expect her to run in the mares myself.

[Middle_Of_March]

Same as Jono for me - I can’t back her until I see some sort of revival back to what she was.

The Apples Jade of Cheltenham & Punchestown last season won’t win any race next year if she goes like she did on those two performances.