Thursday FJ yankee - owner Middle_of_March

[Kevloaf]

Is L'ami Serge the new Thistlecrack?

I think we can all agree that Thistlecrack looked visually stunning when winning his Stayers Hurdle... and the RP comments back that up.... but EVERY OTHER HORSE in recent memory has had to dig deep, stay on strongest...

2017 - Nichols Canyon - "Held up, good headway between last 2, close up disputing 2nd last, led run-in, stayed on strongly and in command towards finish"
2016 - Thistlecrack - "Midfield, headway approaching 7th, went 2nd before 3 out, led on bit just before 2 out, always travelling strongly, effortlessly went clear run-in, impressive"
2015 - Cole Harden - "Jumped slightly left at times, made all, clear 5th, hit 7th and next where reduced advantage, ridden 3 lengths clear again approaching last, stayed on strongly "
2014 - More of That - "Held up, headway approaching 2 out, soon tracked leaders, disputed lead before last where took narrow advantage, ridden run-in, stayed on well and in command final 75yds"
2013 - Solwhit - "Held up in rear, steady headway approaching 2 out, chased leader before last, led soon after, driven out"
2012 - Big Bucks - "Tracked leaders, went 2nd 9th, narrow lead after 3 out, urged along and quickened after 2 out, hung left before last where pressed, drifted right flat but stayed on mightily "
2011 - Big Bucks - "Tracked leaders, went 2nd 8th, ridden to lead between last 2, rider dropped whip, jumped left last, hung left run-in when pressed, pulled out more final 100yds and well on top at finish"
2010 - Big Bucks - "Held up in midfield, headway 9th, travelled smoothly on bit to move upsides between last 2, not fluent last, shaken up to lead run-in, asserted final"
2009 - Big Bucks - "Midfield, hit 7th, headway approaching 2 out, went 2nd between last 2, upsides when mistake last, rallied to lead 150yds out, edged left and stayed on gamely towards finish"
2008 - Inglis Drever - "Held up, headway when not clear run briefly after 4 out, ran on to challenge and switched right approaching last, led run-in, stuck on gamely"
2007 - Inglis Drever - "Towards rear, hit 4th, mistake 7th, ridden and headway from 3 out, challenged 2 out, led soon after, stayed on gamely under pressure run-in, all out "

Every single winner, bar Thistlecrack, has stayed on strongly... let's delve in to L'ami Serge's comments...

27.1.18 - 3rd in handicap chase - "Held up, mistake 2nd and rider briefly lost iron, still plenty to do 5 out, headway 4 out, ridden before last, kept on and not much room towards finish "
Kept on, didn't get the job done?

23.12.17 - 2nd in Long Walk Hurdle - "Held up in last pair, good progress from 3 out to track winner after 2 out, ridden after last, limited response and no impression flat"
Staggeringly worrying comment in terms of a Stayers hurdle

25.11.17 - 2nd in Coral Hurdle - "Took keen hold, held up in last, coaxed along to close from 3 out, ridden to chase winner last and close enough, found little flat and always held"
Staggeringly worrying comment in terms of a Stayers hurdle

11.6.17 - 1st in G1 France - "Waited with in rear, last and went badly left 3 out, steady headway on inner to chase leader 2 out, driven to close before last, led final 130yds, readily "
Had this won without needing to be ridden out

20.5.17 - 2nd in G2 France - "Held up in final pair, closed into midfield halfway, tracked front pair 3 out, virtually upsides leader last, ridden and led run-in, kept on under pressure, headed close home"
Out battled with every chance

29.4.17 - 1st G2 Sandown - "Took keen hold, held up in last, pulled way through to press leader 8th, still tanking along when jumped left 2 out but soon led, ridden out from last "
Had this won before the last - not needed to battle

22.4.17 - 5th Scottish CH - "Held up, steady headway before 2 out, ridden between last 2, kept on run-in, never able to challenge "
Kept on - didn't get the job done

17.3.17 - County Hurdle - "Mid-division, not clear run briefly turning in, soon switched left and headway, ran on well from last, went 2nd final 50yds, closing on winner at finish"
Seems positive, but this was over 2 miles... a far cry from 3

26.2.17 - 3rd at Fontwell - "Held up, went 4th after 6th, 3rd after next, never threatened to get on terms with winner, ridden after 3 out, weakened between last 2, tailed off, lost shoe "
Forgivable depending on when he lost a shoe

21.1.17 - 3rd in CH trial - "Held up, tracking leaders before 5th, challenged on inner approaching last, ridden run-in and no response, unable to go with front 2 final 100yds, lost shoe "
FLinging his shoes around again, forgivable. Also 1m7f race

1.1.17 - 2nd in Relkeel - "Held up, headway after 2 out, chased winner before last, led flat, soon ridden, headed near finish"
Outbattled, again he hasn't got his head in front in a battle.

15.12.16 - 2nd in 3 runner chase at Exeter - "Jumped left throughout, led after 2nd, joined 6th, ridden after 4 out, headed 2 out, kept on but soon held "
Held by Le Prezien over 2m1f.




So, L'ami Serge backers..... 12/1? ..... he must be as talented as Thistlecrack for you to honestly believe with all of that form evidence and comments on his races that he is going to win the Stayers Hurdle?

For me, the ONLY chance he would have, is if he has the talent to have them all beaten while he is on the bridle. He has not shown that ability before, so I think 12/1 is a fdreadful price for him to pop up and do it here!

He can NOT WIN - so it is NOT A GOOD BET, WIN OR EACH WAY

[Hurricane fly]

L’ami serge has been an overrated horse his whole career, typically gets hyped up and smashed in just because he travels well but never finds anything.

His most impressive win is probably beating Ptit Zig by a length being given 8lbs.

I just don’t understand it

[Robbante]

Wrong thread I guess but L’ami Serge is a top class grade 1 animal. Out of 19 runs (most at the top level) he’s been placed 17 times. He’s versatile on trip and ground. Not many horses in the game have that profile and that’s why I like him. Do I think he’ll win a race at this year’s festival? Probably not. Do I think he’ll run a big race? Yes, he always does, because over whatever ground or trip you run him on at the top level he almost always runs a stormer

[Kevloaf]

Wrong thread I guess but L’ami Serge is a top class grade 1 animal. Out of 19 runs (most at the top level) he’s been placed 17 times. He’s versatile on trip and ground. Not many horses in the game have that profile and that’s why I like him. Do I think he’ll win a race at this year’s festival? Probably not. Do I think he’ll run a big race? Yes, he always does, because over whatever ground or trip you run him on at the top level he almost always runs a stormer

How versitle he is doesn't help him in this specific race.

We know exactly what we need in this race.

I feel I've highlighted that above

Him running a stormer and not winning isn't going to be profitable for us?

[Robbante]

How versitle he is doesn't help him in this specific race.

We know exactly what we need in this race.

I feel I've highlighted that above

Him running a stormer and not winning isn't going to be profitable for us?

Should leave this race out imo. So open and I’d give 7/8 a chance of winning it (think I’m on all of them )

[Middle_Of_March]

His Cheltenham record is far too good for a 12/1 shot. I thought he battled well last time at Doncaster and I think it’s a poor race. I’d take 12s each way on L’Ami over 9/2 on sam Spinner every day of the week. Yanworth is a horse I can’t take to in a big field like this and I don’t think Supasundae will stay the trip in the soft ground. Ruby doubts penhill is fit enough. Apples Jade won’t run. Wholestone ain’t good enough and The New one is past his best.

So it’s Lami Serge unfortunately for you Kev. The popularity in this thread and the Stayers has it as a match between Sam Spinner and L’Ami Serge. I agree with that. But I think there’s far more value in the course specialist in an each way yankee. As my job in this is to make the tough calls, it’s Lami Serge for me.

[Kevloaf]

Should leave this race out imo. So open and I’d give 7/8 a chance of winning it (think I’m on all of them )

I am inclined to agree.

My strongest fancy is now Sam Spinner but can see why he is opposable too.

[Kevloaf]

His Cheltenham record is far too good for a 12/1 shot. I thought he battled well last time at Doncaster and I think it’s a poor race. I’d take 12s each way on L’Ami over 9/2 on sam Spinner every day of the week. Yanworth is a horse I can’t take to in a big field like this and I don’t think Supasundae will stay the trip in the soft ground. Ruby doubts penhill is fit enough. Apples Jade won’t run. Wholestone ain’t good enough and The New one is past his best.

So it’s Lami Serge unfortunately for you Kev. The popularity in this thread and the Stayers has it as a match between Sam Spinner and L’Ami Serge. I agree with that. But I think there’s far more value in the course specialist in an each way yankee. As my job in this is to make the tough calls, it’s Lami Serge for me.

Sam Spinner wins at Cheltenham 0 from 0 attempts
L'ami Serge wins at Cheltenham 0 from 3 attempts.

Respect the captains decision though ... fingers crossed and I'll get paid for being wrong That is the last I'll say on the race in this thread.

[Middle_Of_March]

Sam Spinner wins at Cheltenham 0 from 0 attempts
L'ami Serge wins at Cheltenham 0 from 3 attempts.

Respect the captains decision though ... fingers crossed and I'll get paid for being wrong That is the last I'll say on the race in this thread.

That 0 from 3 doesn’t tell the whole story in fairness. It doesn’t help that the Thursday racing in general, UDS aside, is tough imo. Not the easiest day for a yankee that’s for sure.

[ComplyOrDie]

That 0 from 3 doesn’t tell the whole story in fairness. It doesn’t help that the Thursday racing in general, UDS aside, is tough imo. Not the easiest day for a yankee that’s for sure.

TBF MOM, I don't think any day at the festival is easy, especially so with the way the weather is currently too.

As someone who done a yankee last season my advice would be go with who you feel has the best claims based on the evidence of others on the thread regardless of what some others may think. You have hugely differing opinions on here, which is great, and at the end of the day the individuals that do not like a specific horse don't necessarily have to put the yankee on as a bet, I do for a bit of fun with everyone else who does, I have my main bets covered anyhow.

[Old Vic]

Well said COD

[Old Vic]

Lami serge going to Ryanair via NJH at Sandown preview ...watched another bit back in stayers

[Faugheen_Machine]

Lami serge going to Ryanair via NJH at Sandown preview ?

From what I can gather, they were going Ryanair and schooled him over fences this morning but now decided to go Stayers.

[Old Vic]

From what I can gather, they were going Ryanair and schooled him over fences this morning but now decided to go Stayers.

Watched a bit ran off to mop up the 33s ew and came back to it to see he said we are going stayers

[Faugheen_Machine]

Watched a bit ran off to mop up the 33s ew and came back to it to see he said we are going stayers

I took 33/1 this morning. He did say they may change their mind again tomorrow....