Thursday FJ yankee - owner Middle_of_March

[Kevloaf]

Ha! No offence taken Kev!

Tbh you sound more strongly against L’ami Serge than I am for him, I don’t claim to be his no.1 fan but will stand his ground for sake of debate. So to just counter the point you make about not having the form in the book, I would suggest that being the only horse to get within hailing distance of Sam Spinner in the Long Walk and beating the 2nd and 3rd from the previous season’s Stayers in the process, gives him every right to be considered a potential winner, particularly considering this is a trip at which he remains unexposed.

The Ptit Zig race at Sandown... there was a further 7 1/2 lengths back to The New One, one of the most consistent horses in training. And further back to a 156 rated Modus who’s now touted as a JLT horse. All of a sudden that form is not looking to shabby to me.

I agree with your comments about attitude, it’s been there for all to see on a few occasions, but I think the assassination of his form is harsh.

Anyway, I’ll put my tin hat on for the reply

Haha I won't have time to properly reply until tomorrow... but the reason for these specific threads is to make cases and debate them... not just see who mentions which horses the most ... if 10 people put "Sam Spinner" that doesn't help you make a choice?

[Kevloaf]

Ha! No offence taken Kev!

Tbh you sound more strongly against L’ami Serge than I am for him, I don’t claim to be his no.1 fan but will stand his ground for sake of debate. So to just counter the point you make about not having the form in the book, I would suggest that being the only horse to get within hailing distance of Sam Spinner in the Long Walk and beating the 2nd and 3rd from the previous season’s Stayers in the process, gives him every right to be considered a potential winner, particularly considering this is a trip at which he remains unexposed.

The Ptit Zig race at Sandown... there was a further 7 1/2 lengths back to The New One, one of the most consistent horses in training. And further back to a 156 rated Modus who’s now touted as a JLT horse. All of a sudden that form is not looking to shabby to me.

I agree with your comments about attitude, it’s been there for all to see on a few occasions, but I think the assassination of his form is harsh.

Anyway, I’ll put my tin hat on for the reply

I'd suggest Sam Spinner is a much better bet based on that form line. No reason to believe he'd reverse that form?

The New One is consistant but can't have run to form if behind Ptit Zig?

(Not had chance to look I'm on my lunch break)

[archie]

Kemboy
Glenloe
UDS
Penhill
Tully East
Laurina
-

JLT - Any of Kemboy, Al Boum Photo and Invitation Only could still go in this or the RSA.
Pertemps - Glenloe the most likely JP and likely to be much shorter on the day.
Ryanair - UDS under-rated and has everything else covered.
Stayers - Penhill is a stayer with flat speed. Apparently working very well and surely nailed on for a place.
Brown Plate - a carbon copy of last year's Close Bros on the cards.
Mares Novice - whatever Ruby rides...

[Folski]

I'd €50 win on L'Ami Serge at 33s last year in the County, i thought he had won as well, then the camera went to Arctic Fire. This was after him letting me down for about €1,800 when travelling all over Argrapart and going down by a head off a tenner.

Of course I said I'd get all my money back next time at Ayr and I'd do him each way this time just in case. Finishes 5th of 16.

I'd given up at that stage he comes out and wins at Sandown. He proceeds to run 2 very good races in France finishing 2nd in G2 and winning a G1 over 3m1 on bad ground.

I backed Lil Rockafella in his first run this year and I though Serge ran great.

I thought he ran a huge race next time out, missing the last and ending his chances of getting to Sam Spinner.

I laid him for his next run on the previous evidence the horse does not jump fences.

In my opinion the horse has had 4 runs on proper good ground, one of those and it's the only one not run at the Festival, didn't have a fast pace and ironically it's the only won he won at Sandown where he hacked up.

The other 3 are all at the festival and for anyone saying Douvan's supreme was good to soft the race was 3.5seconds quicker than standard so the ground was good. Serge was 4th after being hampered twice.

The year after he made a balls of the second last after jumping it in front, in the JLT, but looks like he got outstayed up the run in, I think he was in front too soon but I also don't think jumping is his game.

Last year he hung noticeably right up the run in which undoubtedly cost him the race.

[Gibbo82]

JLT- Finians Oscar (Monalee if it runs here)
Pertemps- LVP
Ryanair- UDS
Stayers- Sam Spinner
Plate- Tully East
Mares- Laurina
Kim Muir- Mall Dini

[Middle_Of_March]

Having looked through the thread and the original threads, I’ve narrowed the 5 races I’ll chose from into these selections for each race. The Yankee will come from these selections.

JLT - Willougby Court (If fit), Invitation Only, Al Boum Photo or Finians Oscar

Ryanair - Un De Sceaux or Waiting Patiently (If he runs)

Stayers - L’Ami Serge or Supasundae

Brown Advisory Plate - Romain De Senam, Tully East or De Plotting Shed

Mares Novice - Laurina or Maria’s Benefit (If fit)





At this stage.. if I had to call it, I’d go each way yankee of:
- Finians Oscar @ 12/1 for the JLT
- L’Ami Serge @ 12/1 for the Stayers
- Tully East @ 8/1 for the Plate
- Maria’s Benefit @ 5/1 for the Mares Novice

The four fold for this pays 9125/1


But there’s plenty of time for me to be swayed yet

An update:
- It’ll definitely be an each way yankee. This is the toughest of the four days I think we can all agree.
- Looking like being IO or FO for the JLT. I’m more likely to chose the latter at the prices. But that’s not set in stone. Monalee coming here would change things entirely.
- L’Amis price each way is the bet of the race. He will be the selection here.
- I’m a big fan of Tully East and his festival form is an enormous plus. He’s well supported on this forum too so he will almost definitely be in.
- Maria’s Benefit is back on track for the race. We know she will rattle along out front and is a safer bet than the crazily short priced Lauriba. I fail to see any value in the favourite compared to MB at nearly five times the price.



Anyone got anything to add? None of this is for definite but I thought I’d provide an update to where I’m at here.

[Sirbetalot]

Personally I like the E/W picks, so I have nothing to add.. just waiting for you final selections

[Middle_Of_March]

Personally I like the E/W picks, so I have nothing to add.. just waiting for you final selections

I’m pretty much waiting on whether Monalee diverts to here. If he does, that would change things.

I’ll poat the yankee up Saturday

[Sirbetalot]

I’m pretty much waiting on whether Monalee diverts to here. If he does, that would change things.

I’ll poat the yankee up Saturday

Great, some early prices.. but will we know if Monalee will come here by Saturday?

[Middle_Of_March]

Great, some early prices.. but will we know if Monalee will come here by Saturday?

I think the deadline is Sunday for these Yankees to be ‘announced’ anyway.

I’ll see what the weather forecast and ground prediction is and make a call. I’m of the opinion that if Monalee ended up in the JLT, he’d be the bet of the day at anything bigger than 7/4. As it is, I’m on him for the rsa but that’s obviously not on my day.

Claisse will have to keep updating the forecasted ground and I’ll have to take a chance I guess.


On the plus side, as I didn’t get chosen for the Friday, it’s one less thread for me to talk up Burning Ambition for the Foxhunters

[Kevloaf]

I'll have one last go at trying to convince you not to make me back L'ami Serge... with a case for... (from Stayers thread)....

SAM SPINNER In short, I think he has the best form... this is why...

In the Long Walk Hurdle the ground was good to soft, which if we assume it is for the festival on the Thursday, would give me hope that he has the measure of L'ami and UNWIMH again (and Lil Rockerfeller, The Worlds End, Thomas Campell and Taquin Du Seuil who was beaten by Supasundae in the Coral Cup). I don't see why they'd reverse the form on good to soft. With L'ami it is his attitude too and with UNWIMH (who went off 6/4f) I don't think there were any excuses either.

If it is soft (which I personally don't think it will be, but for the sake of arguement).... his chance would be improved because it wouldn't help any of his main rivals as much as him. He bolted up on Heavy at Haydock (which is as bad as you can get) by 17L in a handicap. Trainer also said this today...

He’s got that bit of class and I don’t think he’s ground dependent but it’s peace of mind if it’s testing because he’s got form on it

I don't like the cliche about "if he was trained by X or Y he'd be shorter".... because although that is true, that is for a decent reason. The point is though for me, that that is factored in to his price and although they're all available at 5/1... I think his FORM is better than anything elses.

I also think his attitude is smashing... he is going to give his all, and that can't be said for plenty of his rivals!

Compared to the form of the other two market leaders, we have Supasundae - over 3m has been beaten, and won a 2m race last time. Whether you like that or not (I do), it is NOT better form than Sam Spinner has this season.

Yanworth hasn't run over 3m this season or over hurdles yet this year... schooling is all well and good, but that isn't an ideal prep in anyones book. He might be good enough, but 5s is short compared to a horse who has the form in the book over hurdles and the trip this season. I think Supasundae and YAnworth are favs because of their novice hurdle clash at Aintree.

It could be argued Yanworth and Supasundae don't fully stay, as beating Snow Falcon in that race doesn't prove it, however that isn't an angle I'd be going down personally. I just think Sam Spinner IS undoubtably proven stayer over 3m. The other two aren't, yet.

Looking at the next few in the betting, Penhill (no runs this season, if he wins fair play - complete unknown, but has INCREDIBLE adversity to overcome, including winning first time out and being an Albert Bartlett winner)

UNWIMH - held on the Ascot run.... can't see why he'd reverse it and didn't win last year

L'ami Serge - held on the Ascot run (Absolutely no reason to be confident he'd get his head in front at all versus SS) if he was 12/1 and SS was 2/1 I could see it as a possible value bet, but 5/1 is still a very backable price for SS and even each way I'd say SS won't have 3 pass him!

Bacardys - rubbish prep - wouldn't be the worlds biggest shock but I'd take Sam Spinner over him still.

I'm not going through the whole list... there are loads with chances and I've backed pretty much all of them - I think Sam Spinne

The major doubt is going to be the Cheltenham form - no arguement for that. If he'd run in and won the Cleeve rather than the Long Walk hurdle he'd be a 2/1 shot. I think the price is fair still at 5/1 to have to tackle this unknown. No reason to believe he'd struggle...and if that is what gets him beat, so be it...


I feel like Sam Spinner is the best value in this race, and am quite happy to back him again at 5/1. He has the best attitude in the race, he is uncomplicated, will go out in front and will I can't see a horse in the line up that you could confidently say will pass him up the hill.

[Middle_Of_March]

I'll have one last go at trying to convince you not to make me back L'ami Serge... with a case for... (from Stayers thread)....

SAM SPINNER In short, I think he has the best form... this is why...

In the Long Walk Hurdle the ground was good to soft, which if we assume it is for the festival on the Thursday, would give me hope that he has the measure of L'ami and UNWIMH again (and Lil Rockerfeller, The Worlds End, Thomas Campell and Taquin Du Seuil who was beaten by Supasundae in the Coral Cup). I don't see why they'd reverse the form on good to soft. With L'ami it is his attitude too and with UNWIMH (who went off 6/4f) I don't think there were any excuses either.

If it is soft (which I personally don't think it will be, but for the sake of arguement).... his chance would be improved because it wouldn't help any of his main rivals as much as him. He bolted up on Heavy at Haydock (which is as bad as you can get) by 17L in a handicap. Trainer also said this today...

I don't like the cliche about "if he was trained by X or Y he'd be shorter".... because although that is true, that is for a decent reason. The point is though for me, that that is factored in to his price and although they're all available at 5/1... I think his FORM is better than anything elses.

I also think his attitude is smashing... he is going to give his all, and that can't be said for plenty of his rivals!

Compared to the form of the other two market leaders, we have Supasundae - over 3m has been beaten, and won a 2m race last time. Whether you like that or not (I do), it is NOT better form than Sam Spinner has this season.

Yanworth hasn't run over 3m this season or over hurdles yet this year... schooling is all well and good, but that isn't an ideal prep in anyones book. He might be good enough, but 5s is short compared to a horse who has the form in the book over hurdles and the trip this season. I think Supasundae and YAnworth are favs because of their novice hurdle clash at Aintree.

It could be argued Yanworth and Supasundae don't fully stay, as beating Snow Falcon in that race doesn't prove it, however that isn't an angle I'd be going down personally. I just think Sam Spinner IS undoubtably proven stayer over 3m. The other two aren't, yet.

Looking at the next few in the betting, Penhill (no runs this season, if he wins fair play - complete unknown, but has INCREDIBLE adversity to overcome, including winning first time out and being an Albert Bartlett winner)

UNWIMH - held on the Ascot run.... can't see why he'd reverse it and didn't win last year

L'ami Serge - held on the Ascot run (Absolutely no reason to be confident he'd get his head in front at all versus SS) if he was 12/1 and SS was 2/1 I could see it as a possible value bet, but 5/1 is still a very backable price for SS and even each way I'd say SS won't have 3 pass him!

Bacardys - rubbish prep - wouldn't be the worlds biggest shock but I'd take Sam Spinner over him still.

I'm not going through the whole list... there are loads with chances and I've backed pretty much all of them - I think Sam Spinne

The major doubt is going to be the Cheltenham form - no arguement for that. If he'd run in and won the Cleeve rather than the Long Walk hurdle he'd be a 2/1 shot. I think the price is fair still at 5/1 to have to tackle this unknown. No reason to believe he'd struggle...and if that is what gets him beat, so be it...


I feel like Sam Spinner is the best value in this race, and am quite happy to back him again at 5/1. He has the best attitude in the race, he is uncomplicated, will go out in front and will I can't see a horse in the line up that you could confidently say will pass him up the hill.

Good post Kev. I just can’t see how he’s a value price at 5/1 in what will be a 17-20 runner race over 3m up the Cheltenham hill. It’s a completely different test to what he is used to.

I could definitely see Harry and LS reversing the form as both have good course form which is crucial for Cheltenham.

[ComplyOrDie]

I'll have one last go at trying to convince you not to make me back L'ami Serge... with a case for... (from Stayers thread)....

SAM SPINNER In short, I think he has the best form... this is why...

In the Long Walk Hurdle the ground was good to soft, which if we assume it is for the festival on the Thursday, would give me hope that he has the measure of L'ami and UNWIMH again (and Lil Rockerfeller, The Worlds End, Thomas Campell and Taquin Du Seuil who was beaten by Supasundae in the Coral Cup). I don't see why they'd reverse the form on good to soft. With L'ami it is his attitude too and with UNWIMH (who went off 6/4f) I don't think there were any excuses either.

If it is soft (which I personally don't think it will be, but for the sake of arguement).... his chance would be improved because it wouldn't help any of his main rivals as much as him. He bolted up on Heavy at Haydock (which is as bad as you can get) by 17L in a handicap. Trainer also said this today...

I don't like the cliche about "if he was trained by X or Y he'd be shorter".... because although that is true, that is for a decent reason. The point is though for me, that that is factored in to his price and although they're all available at 5/1... I think his FORM is better than anything elses.

I also think his attitude is smashing... he is going to give his all, and that can't be said for plenty of his rivals!

Compared to the form of the other two market leaders, we have Supasundae - over 3m has been beaten, and won a 2m race last time. Whether you like that or not (I do), it is NOT better form than Sam Spinner has this season.

Yanworth hasn't run over 3m this season or over hurdles yet this year... schooling is all well and good, but that isn't an ideal prep in anyones book. He might be good enough, but 5s is short compared to a horse who has the form in the book over hurdles and the trip this season. I think Supasundae and YAnworth are favs because of their novice hurdle clash at Aintree.

It could be argued Yanworth and Supasundae don't fully stay, as beating Snow Falcon in that race doesn't prove it, however that isn't an angle I'd be going down personally. I just think Sam Spinner IS undoubtably proven stayer over 3m. The other two aren't, yet.

Looking at the next few in the betting, Penhill (no runs this season, if he wins fair play - complete unknown, but has INCREDIBLE adversity to overcome, including winning first time out and being an Albert Bartlett winner)

UNWIMH - held on the Ascot run.... can't see why he'd reverse it and didn't win last year

L'ami Serge - held on the Ascot run (Absolutely no reason to be confident he'd get his head in front at all versus SS) if he was 12/1 and SS was 2/1 I could see it as a possible value bet, but 5/1 is still a very backable price for SS and even each way I'd say SS won't have 3 pass him!

Bacardys - rubbish prep - wouldn't be the worlds biggest shock but I'd take Sam Spinner over him still.

I'm not going through the whole list... there are loads with chances and I've backed pretty much all of them - I think Sam Spinne

The major doubt is going to be the Cheltenham form - no arguement for that. If he'd run in and won the Cleeve rather than the Long Walk hurdle he'd be a 2/1 shot. I think the price is fair still at 5/1 to have to tackle this unknown. No reason to believe he'd struggle...and if that is what gets him beat, so be it...


I feel like Sam Spinner is the best value in this race, and am quite happy to back him again at 5/1. He has the best attitude in the race, he is uncomplicated, will go out in front and will I can't see a horse in the line up that you could confidently say will pass him up the hill.

The way I see it with both horses is if you like one then the other must appeal, as they are tied it pretty closely. As much as Sam Spinner is still on the 'up' IF connections are to be believed and L'ami Serge is better left handed then he can also get close to Sam Spinner in this race.

I currently have Yanworth & Supasundae covered but I am being drawn to Penhill, despite the lack of any Albert Bartlett winner going on to win this, that will change eventually and Penhill could be the horse., here is my case for him:

Lets get the negatives out of the way first, no winner of the Albert Bartlett has won this race, unsure how many have actually contested it, so unsure how significant this is, and also no winner of this race since 1996 without a prep run first, again, unsure how many have come here on that basis that were actually aimed at this race, with a fair chance on form too.

He is very much unexposed over 3m, he won the Albert Bartlett (which is a negative in terms of stats for finding the winner of the Stayers' as above), and he also went and finished 2nd at the Punchestown festival but finished way ahead of the likes of Monalee, Al Boum Photo & Presenting Percy, he also finished 7 1/2 lengths ahead of Wholestone in the AB last season, but Wholestone is as short as 10/1 and you can also get Penhill @ 10/1, admittedly Wholestone is also available @ 16/1 but I still feel a 6pt difference for 7 1/2 lengths is plenty short enough, taking into consideration Penhill was actually drawing away at the finish too.

His record when fresh over hurdles reads 1-6-1-4-1, the 6th he was beaten 90 lengths in a very average novice hurdle so I can only assume something was amiss that day as he has shown he is better than that since then. His 4th was in a 2m Grade 1 Novice Hurdle, clearly a trip too short, given how effective he has been over 3m (in the same season as that defeat) since then, so this, IMO, has excuses attached to it as well. Overall, I don't see the lay off being as much a negative at it seems to have been pointed out to be, at least for Penhill anyway.

His form is solid, admittedly a lot of the horses he beat last season or finished ahead of have now gone chasing but they were no mugs over hurdles, everyone's 'good thing', Presenting Percy, who hosed up in a handicap at the festival last season, and also has won over hurdles this season too, was over 11 lengths behind him at Punchestown, Monalee was 10 lengths behind in that race too.

He races absolutely perfect for a race of this nature at a course like Cheltenham, he is extremely patient, as was Nichols Canyon last season, he'll come late, yet retains his speed from the flat to put the race to bed, we know he stays, that much is a given, and, although I do love a stat, Willie doesn't care too much for them, and if he has enough belief in a horse then the stats really do not matter, he has put a few of them to bed over the years. For me, 10/1 represents decent value, especially with as many reservations as there seems to be about plenty of the others at shorter prices.

[Middle_Of_March]

The way I see it with both horses is if you like one then the other must appeal, as they are tied it pretty closely. As much as Sam Spinner is still on the 'up' IF connections are to be believed and L'ami Serge is better left handed then he can also get close to Sam Spinner in this race.

I currently have Yanworth & Supasundae covered but I am being drawn to Penhill, despite the lack of any Albert Bartlett winner going on to win this, that will change eventually and Penhill could be the horse., here is my case for him:

Lets get the negatives out of the way first, no winner of the Albert Bartlett has won this race, unsure how many have actually contested it, so unsure how significant this is, and also no winner of this race since 1996 without a prep run first, again, unsure how many have come here on that basis that were actually aimed at this race, with a fair chance on form too.

He is very much unexposed over 3m, he won the Albert Bartlett (which is a negative in terms of stats for finding the winner of the Stayers' as above), and he also went and finished 2nd at the Punchestown festival but finished way ahead of the likes of Monalee, Al Boum Photo & Presenting Percy, he also finished 7 1/2 lengths ahead of Wholestone in the AB last season, but Wholestone is as short as 10/1 and you can also get Penhill @ 10/1, admittedly Wholestone is also available @ 16/1 but I still feel a 6pt difference for 7 1/2 lengths is plenty short enough, taking into consideration Penhill was actually drawing away at the finish too.

His record when fresh over hurdles reads 1-6-1-4-1, the 6th he was beaten 90 lengths in a very average novice hurdle so I can only assume something was amiss that day as he has shown he is better than that since then. His 4th was in a 2m Grade 1 Novice Hurdle, clearly a trip too short, given how effective he has been over 3m (in the same season as that defeat) since then, so this, IMO, has excuses attached to it as well. Overall, I don't see the lay off being as much a negative at it seems to have been pointed out to be, at least for Penhill anyway.

His form is solid, admittedly a lot of the horses he beat last season or finished ahead of have now gone chasing but they were no mugs over hurdles, everyone's 'good thing', Presenting Percy, who hosed up in a handicap at the festival last season, and also has won over hurdles this season too, was over 11 lengths behind him at Punchestown, Monalee was 10 lengths behind in that race too.

He races absolutely perfect for a race of this nature at a course like Cheltenham, he is extremely patient, as was Nichols Canyon last season, he'll come late, yet retains his speed from the flat to put the race to bed, we know he stays, that much is a given, and, although I do love a stat, Willie doesn't care too much for them, and if he has enough belief in a horse then the stats really do not matter, he has put a few of them to bed over the years. For me, 10/1 represents decent value, especially with as many reservations as there seems to be about plenty of the others at shorter prices.

I’d never try to put anyone off a horse at that price but Ruby’s comments on him yesterday would have me against him just on those words alone.

He said the big field expected this year means it’ll be an extremely stamina sapping test and whilst that would usually suit oenhill, he expects he will not be at full fitness after a years absence. Which is hardly a glowing report from a jockey who’d have been well up to date in how he’s going at home.

[ComplyOrDie]

I’d never try to put anyone off a horse at that price but Ruby’s comments on him yesterday would have me against him just on those words alone.

He said the big field expected this year means it’ll be an extremely stamina sapping test and whilst that would usually suit oenhill, he expects he will not be at full fitness after a years absence. Which is hardly a glowing report from a jockey who’d have been well up to date in how he’s going at home.

True, but Ruby openly admitted that he hadn't sat on many of the horses Willie has, obviously due to injury, we know how a jockey/trainer can say one thing and be the complete opposite on the day too. My case for Penhill was solely based on the horse itself rather than the words that are spoken of him