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Cheltenham 2019 Ante-Post bets

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  • Originally posted by boopa View Post
    Interesting to see how people bet. Do you have a separate bank for antepost? Are your points a % of your bank? Some of you have 50% of your bank on already, that would make me very nervous. As someone who lives off their betting I am very protective of my bank. I bet 1-5 points but each point is only 0.1% of my bank. Not to mention I wouldn't be able to get on with 1% points.
    Currently have around 60% of my real money bank on. Last year I had close to 90% before non-runner no bet. Despite losing 25% of my stake before the start of the Festival things turned out well, although I think I was a bit fortunate with the one's that stayed injury free and went on to win. Realised last year there are still plenty of opportunities at NRNB so am aiming to be no more than 75% of my bank before NRNB. I don't bet on the day.

    Just adding I try to dilute the risk with free bets and backing multiple horses in certain races.
    Last edited by Rhinestone_Cowboy; 21 November 2018, 08:08 AM.

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    • Originally posted by boopa View Post
      Interesting to see how people bet. Do you have a separate bank for antepost? Are your points a % of your bank? Some of you have 50% of your bank on already, that would make me very nervous. As someone who lives off their betting I am very protective of my bank. I bet 1-5 points but each point is only 0.1% of my bank. Not to mention I wouldn't be able to get on with 1% points.
      I'm in this bracket, but it has stood me well in previous years and see no reason why I would change something that works, for me anyway.

      I must admit, a bit like many on here, I always convince myself I won't get as involved every year in the ante post side of it, but that never happens, so I am just going to accept it as being part of my make up and strategy when it comes to this festival.

      I guess I build up a fair portfolio so that come race day I can sit back and not worry about any further bets, I may do the odd stupid full card multi, but for very low stakes.

      I am currently so far ahead on stakes placed than I have ever been before, though this is mostly down to some fairly nice bets won, and not what I would class as being out my own pocket, I would not class these as being part of my original bank, because had I not won they would not be on anyway.

      I feel I have been more sensible/selective this year as well, made more use of the 'any race' market, use Bet365, which has been a huge help as have managed to get out of some sticky spots by using the cash out option already.

      I think everyone has a different idea of how to play the ante post game, but ultimately you have to do what works for you, the past 6 seasons have been kind (can't remember any further back tbh), so for me it makes no sense in changing tact now.

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      • Originally posted by boopa View Post
        Interesting to see how people bet. Do you have a separate bank for antepost? Are your points a % of your bank? Some of you have 50% of your bank on already, that would make me very nervous. As someone who lives off their betting I am very protective of my bank. I bet 1-5 points but each point is only 0.1% of my bank. Not to mention I wouldn't be able to get on with 1% points.
        I don't even bet to points tbh. I'll only work it out for the purpose of not writing what real money ammounts im staking on here. And that takes a while due to the random nature of my stakes being uneven.

        Money wise iv prob staked around or atleast 50% of what I will in total i canr be too accurate on that as no set budget. Some will likely need to be cashed though. And money re used.
        Last edited by Scooby91; 21 November 2018, 08:56 AM.
        https://scooby91horseracingtips.com/
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        • Originally posted by Scooby91 View Post
          I don't even bet to points tbh. I'll only work it out for the purpose of not writing what real money ammounts im staking on here. And that takes a while due to the random nature of my stakes being uneven.

          Money wise iv prob staked around or atleast 50% of what I will in total i canr be too accurate on that as no set budget. Some will likely need to be cashed though. And money re used.
          Is that 50% of your total bank or 50% of a festival bank?

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          • Originally posted by boopa View Post
            Interesting to see how people bet. Do you have a separate bank for antepost? Are your points a % of your bank? Some of you have 50% of your bank on already, that would make me very nervous. As someone who lives off their betting I am very protective of my bank. I bet 1-5 points but each point is only 0.1% of my bank. Not to mention I wouldn't be able to get on with 1% points.
            I keep a separate "bank" for ante-post/NRNB plays where 1pt is roughly 1%. I'm not strict to this, but it's a helpful line in the sand to draw where I know there are too many bets down. Browsing over my list I'm at about 60% which is probably over where I want to be, but quite a few of those are likely cash outs + it's hard not to get carried away!

            On the day I just have some fun bets with the handicaps and then obviously try and land some life-changers.

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            • 50% of my efforts are invested into looking at Mullins/Elliot/Henderson runners, because they win >50% of the races.

              Bobby - also my focus - and higher win rate in grade1s last time I looked at it.

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              • Bobby - love all that. I imagine if I did a sweep of every thread to see what cases and general consensus was, your staking so far would look like the 'template'. (In my head, as it's similar to how I started on here - more than one way to approach it though)

                I've personally used a similar strategy to you before ... its ever evolving.

                One of the things I do that I shouldn't is use my own bank rather than a specific betting bank. Since 2015 I'm 1530 pts up and have been lucky enough to pay for an engagement, wedding and honeymoon... but it does mean I don't have that amount to physically play with. I've also started to double my points, so technically 2 points last season is only 1 this, but that will mean my stake skyrocket so I'd be relying on continued 'weekend success' (which isn't guaranteed despite a positive curve).

                Is be interested to know how others have managed an increase in stake though as it will help me for next season too
                Last edited by Kevloaf; 21 November 2018, 06:30 PM.

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                • Your stake should grow in line with your bank but it depends on the size of your stake. The bigger your stake the harder it is to get on. I'd like to bet £500 points but it's not realistic.

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                  • Only my third year doing ante post.

                    Main changes this year are:

                    Win only.

                    Any race market or 365.

                    Not afraid to go back in on a horse when it's shortened even though I have it at a bigger price.

                    Bigger stake, less horses.

                    Free bets on life changing multiples.

                    Concentrate more on Mullins/Elliott/Henderson.

                    Back previous festival winners.

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                    • Originally posted by boopa View Post
                      Your stake should grow in line with your bank but it depends on the size of your stake. The bigger your stake the harder it is to get on. I'd like to bet £500 points but it's not realistic.
                      I have to wait 24 hrs with WH to back a horse twice to get my required stake on. Makes no sense to me!

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                      • Originally posted by JackieMoon33 View Post
                        Style De Vole
                        Style De Gardes year younge half brother, he's one our French advisers were mad about as he won his flat maiden incredibly impressively. He could easily make a high class juvenile hurdler
                        Cheers Jackie

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                        • Originally posted by boopa View Post
                          Your stake should grow in line with your bank but it depends on the size of your stake. The bigger your stake the harder it is to get on. I'd like to bet £500 points but it's not realistic.
                          The slight issue I have in analysing it, is my 2018 profit is warped by the return at Cheltenham. Since April I'm 300 pts up, and have doubled stake in that time - but if it was that simple I'd only need to double through one more time and I could leave work. Sounds too good to be true

                          I'm around 5 years off though in my planning (although need plenty more thought) and much more convincing for my wife

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                          • 300 points is better than Hugh Taylor. 100's of people would pay a monthly subscription for that

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                            • Originally posted by boopa View Post
                              300 points is better than Hugh Taylor. 100's of people would pay a monthly subscription for that
                              You'd have to stake a HELLUVA lot more than Hugh Taylor does to get to that amount, so I'm not sure they would

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                              • Yeah all about the ROI, HT up to 1.46 last year...so 46p profit on the pound, he'll beat that again this year

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