Cheltenham 2019 Ante-Post bets

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Following you in on that

[Folski]

I have had a look at races that have led to winners of other races between 2010 and 2018. My logic was I thinking that something like 10 of 18 of the current markets Bet365 have markets for are headed by previous festival winners, 8 of which won at last years festival. I looked at the Supreme, Ballymore, Albert Bartlett, Triumph, Bumper, Arkle, JLT, RSA, 4 Miler, Champion Hurdle, Stayers, QMCC, Ryanair and Gold Cup which makes up more than half the festival, I could have thrown in the mares races but I left them out as Quevega (God Bless her!) would have skewed the stats.

20 horses have won one of those races in 2010 or later and won another race at the festival - Albertas Run, Altior, Big Bucks', Bob's Worth, Buveur D'Air, Causes Of Causes, Champagne Fever, Cue Card, Douvan, Faugheen, Hurricane Fly, Lord Windermere, Penhill, Simonsig, Sizing Europe, Sprinter Sacre, Tiger Roll, Un De Sceaux, Vatour & Yorkhill. The ones in Bold went back to back, italics went at least 3 in a row. 17 of the 20 won the next year, the 3 exceptions were Cue Card who won the bumper then 4th in Supreme, 2nd in Arkle before winning Ryanair, Hurricane Fly who won the champion but was 3rd the next and then regained it and finally, Un De Sceaux who won an Arkle, was beat by Sprinter in the QMCC and then won the Ryanair. Chances are if a horse is going to win it'll be back to back.

So where did the winners come from:
Supreme - 11 horses won 16 races.
Ballymore - 12 horses won 12 races.
Albert Bartlett - 10 horses won 11 races.
Arkle - 9 horses won 10 races.
Bumper - 7 horses won 7 races.
Champion hurdle - 6 horses won 7 races.
Triumph - 6 horses won 7 races.
Stayers - 5 horses won 7 races.
4 Miler - 5 horses won 5 races.
RSA - 4 horses won 4 races.
JLT - 4 horses won 4 races.
QMCC - 3 horses won 3 races.
Ryanair - 2 horses won 2 races.
Gold Cup - 1 horse won 1 race.

Supreme - 4 Champion Chasers, 3 Champion Hurdles, 3 Arkles, 2 Ryanair, 1 Gold Cup, JLT, Coral Cup and a County Hurdle.
Ballymore - 4 JLT, 2 Champion Hurdles, 2 Stayers, 1 QMCC, Arkle, 4 Miler and a Centenary.
Albert Bartlett - 4 RSA, 2 Gold Cup, 1 Ryanair, Stayers, JLT, 4 Miler and Festival Trophy.
Bumper - 2 Supreme, 1 Champion, Ryanair, Ballymore, Martin Pipe and a Coral Cup.
Champion hurdle - 2 Champion, 2 Stayers, 1 Arkle and a County Hurdle.
Triumph - 1 QMCC, Mares, Arkle, 4 Miler, Mares Novice, County and a X Country.
Stayers - 2 Stayers, 1 Champion, Ryanair, 4 Miler, Festival Trophy and a X Country.
4 Miler - 3 X Country, 1 Gold Cup and a Kim Muir.
RSA - 4 Gold Cups.
JLT - 4 Ryanair.
QMCC - 2 QMCC and a Ryanair.
Ryanair - 1 Gold Cup and 1 Ryanair
Gold Cup - 1 Gold Cup.

Supreme: Only Altior, Douvan and Vautour actually won it, so a race to look back on for improvers.

Ballymore: Again only 3 actual winners, Yorkhill, Faugheen & Simonsig, 4 JLT winners is very interesting.

A.B: Only 2 winners here, Penhill & Bob's Worth the rest mainly finished terribly Native River (9th - 53L), Bostons Angel (PU), Balko (5th - 15L), Blaklion (PU) and Black Hercules (7th - 35L), O'Faolains boy (4th - 17L). I don't think we should be writing off anything from this especially in last years ground. Also 4 RSA winners stands out.

Bumper: Only 2 winners Champagne Fever and Cue Card, only 2 winners since Champagne Fevers bumpers and neither won G1s, yet the novice hurdle markets are saturated with horses from last years bumper.

Champion Hurdle: Footpad the only horse to come out of this since 2010 and win a chase at the Festival.

Triumph: Tiger Roll the only one of these to actually win it and win another race. Horses can pop up in anything it would seem.

Stayers: Big Bucks' counts for both Stayers wins, no horse gone back to back since but lots of previous before that.

4 Miler: Looks a nice prep for the X Country.

RSA: 4 Gold Cups is telling but while a horse came from the 2010, 11, 12 & 14 RSAs to win a Gold Cup there has been none the last 3 years.

JLT: 4 Ryanairs is telling.

QMCC: Sprinter and Tiara the QMCC winners having multiple runs in this, with UDS winning the Ryanair.

Ryanair: Albertas Run & Don Cossack probably not a race to be taking horses out of.

Gold Cup: Native River, same as above probably not a race to be taking horses out of.

[BigChaang]

Like this Folski , will read again later.

[ComplyOrDie]

Supreme: Only Altior, Douvan and Vautour actually won it, so a race to look back on for improvers.

Ballymore: Again only 3 actual winners, Yorkhill, Faugheen & Simonsig, 4 JLT winners is very interesting.

A.B: Only 2 winners here, Penhill & Bob's Worth the rest mainly finished terribly Native River (9th - 53L), Bostons Angel (PU), Balko (5th - 15L), Blaklion (PU) and Black Hercules (7th - 35L), O'Faolains boy (4th - 17L). I don't think we should be writing off anything from this especially in last years ground. Also 4 RSA winners stands out.

Bumper: Only 2 winners Champagne Fever and Cue Card, only 2 winners since Champagne Fevers bumpers and neither won G1s, yet the novice hurdle markets are saturated with horses from last years bumper.

Champion Hurdle: Footpad the only horse to come out of this since 2010 and win a chase at the Festival.

Triumph: Tiger Roll the only one of these to actually win it and win another race. Horses can pop up in anything it would seem.

Stayers: Big Bucks' counts for both Stayers wins, no horse gone back to back since but lots of previous before that.

4 Miler: Looks a nice prep for the X Country.

RSA: 4 Gold Cups is telling but while a horse came from the 2010, 11, 12 & 14 RSAs to win a Gold Cup there has been none the last 3 years.

JLT: 4 Ryanairs is telling.

QMCC: Sprinter and Tiara the QMCC winners having multiple runs in this, with UDS winning the Ryanair.

Ryanair: Albertas Run & Don Cossack probably not a race to be taking horses out of.

Gold Cup: Native River, same as above probably not a race to be taking horses out of.

Great post Folski.

The bumper thing happens EVERY year, and is something I avoid myself, however the mould will be broken at some point and no doubt I'll get a 'told you so' from someone, somewhere, but for now it is something I am definitely happy to avoid and congratulate the winners when they get one.

Like the JLT one, as backed Shattered Love for it, and put Balko Des Flos in as a Gold Cup bet, though the Ryanair seems not a strong one as above.

RSA is another strong one, and I think many will be pleased by that on here as PP is quite a fancied horse among forum members. Would not be too bothered about it being absent the past 3 seasons, just means we are 'due' one

I think the Champion Hurdle one probably suggests how good Footpad probably is over fences tbh. I think he can beat Altior myself.

[thistlecracker]

I have had a look at races that have led to winners of other races between 2010 and 2018. My logic was I thinking that something like 10 of 18 of the current markets Bet365 have markets for are headed by previous festival winners, 8 of which won at last years festival. I looked at the Supreme, Ballymore, Albert Bartlett, Triumph, Bumper, Arkle, JLT, RSA, 4 Miler, Champion Hurdle, Stayers, QMCC, Ryanair and Gold Cup which makes up more than half the festival, I could have thrown in the mares races but I left them out as Quevega (God Bless her!) would have skewed the stats.

20 horses have won one of those races in 2010 or later and won another race at the festival - Albertas Run, Altior, Big Bucks', Bob's Worth, Buveur D'Air, Causes Of Causes, Champagne Fever, Cue Card, Douvan, Faugheen, Hurricane Fly, Lord Windermere, Penhill, Simonsig, Sizing Europe, Sprinter Sacre, Tiger Roll, Un De Sceaux, Vatour & Yorkhill. The ones in Bold went back to back, italics went at least 3 in a row. 17 of the 20 won the next year, the 3 exceptions were Cue Card who won the bumper then 4th in Supreme, 2nd in Arkle before winning Ryanair, Hurricane Fly who won the champion but was 3rd the next and then regained it and finally, Un De Sceaux who won an Arkle, was beat by Sprinter in the QMCC and then won the Ryanair. Chances are if a horse is going to win it'll be back to back.

So where did the winners come from:
Supreme - 11 horses won 16 races.
Ballymore - 12 horses won 12 races.
Albert Bartlett - 10 horses won 11 races.
Arkle - 9 horses won 10 races.
Bumper - 7 horses won 7 races.
Champion hurdle - 6 horses won 7 races.
Triumph - 6 horses won 7 races.
Stayers - 5 horses won 7 races.
4 Miler - 5 horses won 5 races.
RSA - 4 horses won 4 races.
JLT - 4 horses won 4 races.
QMCC - 3 horses won 3 races.
Ryanair - 2 horses won 2 races.
Gold Cup - 1 horse won 1 race.

Supreme - 4 Champion Chasers, 3 Champion Hurdles, 3 Arkles, 2 Ryanair, 1 Gold Cup, JLT, Coral Cup and a County Hurdle.
Ballymore - 4 JLT, 2 Champion Hurdles, 2 Stayers, 1 QMCC, Arkle, 4 Miler and a Centenary.
Albert Bartlett - 4 RSA, 2 Gold Cup, 1 Ryanair, Stayers, JLT, 4 Miler and Festival Trophy.
Bumper - 2 Supreme, 1 Champion, Ryanair, Ballymore, Martin Pipe and a Coral Cup.
Champion hurdle - 2 Champion, 2 Stayers, 1 Arkle and a County Hurdle.
Triumph - 1 QMCC, Mares, Arkle, 4 Miler, Mares Novice, County and a X Country.
Stayers - 2 Stayers, 1 Champion, Ryanair, 4 Miler, Festival Trophy and a X Country.
4 Miler - 3 X Country, 1 Gold Cup and a Kim Muir.
RSA - 4 Gold Cups.
JLT - 4 Ryanair.
QMCC - 2 QMCC and a Ryanair.
Ryanair - 1 Gold Cup and 1 Ryanair
Gold Cup - 1 Gold Cup.

Supreme: Only Altior, Douvan and Vautour actually won it, so a race to look back on for improvers.

Ballymore: Again only 3 actual winners, Yorkhill, Faugheen & Simonsig, 4 JLT winners is very interesting.

A.B: Only 2 winners here, Penhill & Bob's Worth the rest mainly finished terribly Native River (9th - 53L), Bostons Angel (PU), Balko (5th - 15L), Blaklion (PU) and Black Hercules (7th - 35L), O'Faolains boy (4th - 17L). I don't think we should be writing off anything from this especially in last years ground. Also 4 RSA winners stands out.

Bumper: Only 2 winners Champagne Fever and Cue Card, only 2 winners since Champagne Fevers bumpers and neither won G1s, yet the novice hurdle markets are saturated with horses from last years bumper.

Champion Hurdle: Footpad the only horse to come out of this since 2010 and win a chase at the Festival.

Triumph: Tiger Roll the only one of these to actually win it and win another race. Horses can pop up in anything it would seem.

Stayers: Big Bucks' counts for both Stayers wins, no horse gone back to back since but lots of previous before that.

4 Miler: Looks a nice prep for the X Country.

RSA: 4 Gold Cups is telling but while a horse came from the 2010, 11, 12 & 14 RSAs to win a Gold Cup there has been none the last 3 years.

JLT: 4 Ryanairs is telling.

QMCC: Sprinter and Tiara the QMCC winners having multiple runs in this, with UDS winning the Ryanair.

Ryanair: Albertas Run & Don Cossack probably not a race to be taking horses out of.

Gold Cup: Native River, same as above probably not a race to be taking horses out of.

Great analysis!

Definitely makes shattered love interesting. I am also in the PP camp and is in a few multi’s.

[jono]

I have had a look at races that have led to winners of other races between 2010 and 2018....

Superb post and analysis Folksi

Deserves a proper look over later for me but on very first glance the Triumph produced more winners than I anticipated - 7 (that Triumph in 2016 looks pretty decent now with the 2,3,4 following up!)

Off the top of my head with those winners and stats - loosely it would appear to focus more on the winners of the novice chases and but not necessarily just the winners in the novice hurdles - obviously that could well be pretty obvious though - younger, less exposed, still open for more improvement switching to fences etc (correct me if i'm wrong!)

Great work

[jkite16]

Had a 2pt win double on Cracking Smart (any race), and Carefully Selected (Albert Bartlett) - 315/1 with Coral.

[ComplyOrDie]

Not sure if it is something that interests many but it is something I keep an eye on and had decided the other day to work out percentages (market share) for each race on the exchanges (Betfair only), as to where the money has gone. Have re-calculated this morning for day 1 of the festival only. Only races with at least £1k traded have been included. Only horses with at least 4% market share included.

Supreme (£8,134 matched):

Annamix 45.48%
Commander Of Fleet 15.40%
Pym 4.78%
Didtheyleaveuoutto 5.11%
Tornado Flyer 4.84%

Arkle (£3,772):

Kalashnikov 31.28%
Mengli Khan 18.43%
Samcro 12.83%
Draconien 6.81%
Paloma Blue 6.55%
Melon 5.25%
Claimantakinforgan 4.27%

Champion Hurdle (£33,191):

Samcro 44.49%
Buveur D'air 28.85%
Summerville Boy 7.31%
Melon 5.91%
Laurina 5.53%
We Have A Dream 4.38%

Mares Hurdle (£1,043):

Apples Jade 48.03%
Laurina 36.43%
Benie Des Dieux 8.63%
Limini 4.60%

I'm hoping to get the other 3 days up by the end of next week, and then re-visit again on the 1st of every month to see levels of movement, also reference for following years etc... Whether it will have any significance as to being able to find winners/losers or races for horses any earlier or not will be something only time will tell.

I know some of us reference the exchanges, I know I certainly do, but up until recently have not tracked previous years movements etc... So will be interested to see how things pan out. Hope you don't mind me adding them to this thread though.

[Folski]

Not sure if it is something that interests many but it is something I keep an eye on and had decided the other day to work out percentages (market share) for each race on the exchanges (Betfair only), as to where the money has gone. Have re-calculated this morning for day 1 of the festival only. Only races with at least £1k traded have been included. Only horses with at least 4% market share included.

Supreme (£8,134 matched):

Annamix 45.48%
Commander Of Fleet 15.40%
Pym 4.78%
Didtheyleaveuoutto 5.11%
Tornado Flyer 4.84%

Arkle (£3,772):

Kalashnikov 31.28%
Mengli Khan 18.43%
Samcro 12.83%
Draconien 6.81%
Paloma Blue 6.55%
Melon 5.25%
Claimantakinforgan 4.27%

Champion Hurdle (£33,191):

Samcro 44.49%
Buveur D'air 28.85%
Summerville Boy 7.31%
Melon 5.91%
Laurina 5.53%
We Have A Dream 4.38%

Mares Hurdle (£1,043):

Apples Jade 48.03%
Laurina 36.43%
Benie Des Dieux 8.63%
Limini 4.60%

I'm hoping to get the other 3 days up by the end of next week, and then re-visit again on the 1st of every month to see levels of movement, also reference for following years etc... Whether it will have any significance as to being able to find winners/losers or races for horses any earlier or not will be something only time will tell.

I know some of us reference the exchanges, I know I certainly do, but up until recently have not tracked previous years movements etc... So will be interested to see how things pan out. Hope you don't mind me adding them to this thread though.

Cheers COD very interesting the Mares especially is interesting.

[Folski]

Superb post and analysis Folksi

Deserves a proper look over later for me but on very first glance the Triumph produced more winners than I anticipated - 7 (that Triumph in 2016 looks pretty decent now with the 2,3,4 following up!)

Off the top of my head with those winners and stats - loosely it would appear to focus more on the winners of the novice chases and but not necessarily just the winners in the novice hurdles - obviously that could well be pretty obvious though - younger, less exposed, still open for more improvement switching to fences etc (correct me if i'm wrong!)

Great work

Cheers Kev. The missus had a work night out so I was bored last night, will I try and get all of them but makes sense that most of the winners would come from those races.

[Kevloaf]

Folski - if it's 20 winners that have won a race, what is the number that 'haven't' won another race?

Super post, will have a better look at it later on. I love these kinds of statistics. I'll do the +/- profit and loss at level stakes again at some point

[Kevloaf]

CoD - yeah keep track and keep us posted. Probably best in its own thread to make it easier to keep track as it'll be a lot of data over time.

[archie]

CoD, are you able to add to your stats the total amount matched last season for each race? It would put the amount currently matched into perspective.

[ComplyOrDie]

CoD, are you able to add to your stats the total amount matched last season for each race? It would put the amount currently matched into perspective.

You can, from Betfair I believe, get historic data, something I have yet to look into as I was starting from this point, of course it would be much more beneficial to have some perspective right now, however over time I am hoping that is what this will achieve, it all could just end up a waste of my time, but I have some of that spare so don't mind giving it a go.

I'm not sure how much information is available on the historic data from Betfair, but if it is only what was traded for the specific day of the race then I would suggest the amounts right now would look hugely insignificant, as you'd suspect given how early we are on in the season, I would hope there would be specific time frame data available.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

I'm interested in this CoD. I'm particularly interested to know the % matched below the widely available major bookie price and the % laid at a bigger price than has ever been available through major bookies. Not sure if this is easily attainable.

One point in response to Archie who is fair in questioning the total amount matched (and how minimal it is), obviously a match on betfair takes two to tango. Is it likely that in those who like to lay on betfair (including arbors) are less inclined to do it at this early stage on antepost markets thereby tying their money up, doesn't mean there are those not interested in backing a horse. For example if you laid Santini for 10k at 8 how long do you think it would last?