Cheltenham 2019 Ante-Post bets

[kinloch brae]

Just had the two bets.

Paloma Blue at 20/1 for the Arkle & Samcro at 8/1 for the RSA.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Paloma Blue reverses the Cheltenham form on better ground. That said he has the stamp of a chaser and if he takes to fences I can't see any of those who are quoted, and likely to take this route, beating him.

Samcro could go in several directions but surely they would ideally want another Gold Cup winner. The RSA would represent the obvious stepping stone and he relaxes so well that three miles doesn't look an obvious problem. The 8/1 looks perfectly reasonable.

[Hurricane fly]

I’d only be interested in the Any Race categories and feel the need to be tactical when asking for prices on some early ones, ask in bulk and throw some I’m not interested in aswell.

For example I can see Danny Kirwan and Hollowgraphic winning races/running well at Aintree/Punchestown so wouldn’t mind being in them early.


Edit:

Just been on Skybet and they have already added:

Any race:
Hollowgraphic - 12/1
Danny Kirwan - 14/1

Supreme:
Annamix - 16/1

[Faugheen_Machine]

My first bets have been placed this morning.

Footpad 14/1 Gold Cup
Samcro 8/1 RSA
Buveur D'air 7/2 Champion Hurdle

[Kevloaf]

I'm not convinced Hollowgraphic at 12s or Danny Kirwan at 14s are worth taking yet.

Danny Kirwan is going to be "anything this year is a bonus" and Nicholls isn't well known for his novice hurdlers, even when he was dominating? I can't wait to see the horse and I'll be following, but PN did have Denman beaten as a hurdler...

Hollowgraphic looks too short purely based on the fact he hasn't actually got the grade 1 form in the bag. The vibes we're very strong, as they were about Getabird when he missed the festival. Mullins clearly has a very good group of them, but 12s is also plenty short at the moment?


The prices won't be collapsing for a few weeks so plenty of time to think about it

[Kevloaf]

Got the sticky already for 2019 .... could move the last two posts FM?

[Faugheen_Machine]

Got the sticky already for 2019 .... could move the last two posts FM?

I'll move them across Kev

[Faugheen_Machine]

Supasundae should make a nice chaser. I've requested a price for him in next season's RSA & JLT

[Kevloaf]

Just watched the RSA back. Presenting Percy was absolutely brilliant. Stunning win.

6/1 with no chinks in the armour?

Might Bite 10s best price with BV isn't bad as he'd be closer on better ground.

Footpad 12/1 but would have to prove stamina and obviously not 100% he'd end up here...

Nothing else on my mind really for it at this stage. Douvan at 25s


I can see me chipping away at PP all summer. There would be NOTHING better than landing a huge bet in the big one!

[ComplyOrDie]

I've just a few small goes on Danny Kirwan 'any race' I know now would seem a silly time to put a bet on him but it was funds sitting in the account and I'd only likely spend it on something not worth a bean anyway, so thought a small, early investment would do me no harm.

Small Lucky 15 on also, Melon (CH), Penhill (Stayers'), Laurina (Mares) & Douvan (CC).

I know there is every likelihood that Douvan now steps up in trip but I honestly have never seen him travel that well as he did this festival, he looked powerful and strong and I am adament he wins that race had he not made the error, I was so taken with him, I just hope they keep him at 2m now.

I want Footpad for the Ryanair, but can't seem to get a price for him in that currently.

[Kevloaf]

Henry de Bromhead said of Monalee: "He ran a blinder and I'm delighted with the run, I am disappointed not to win but such is life. He is galloping all the way to the line he is definitely a three-mile horse.

"They are two very good novices and he was just beaten by a better one on the day.

"I hope in time that he could be a Gold Cup horse, that is a long way away but it is the kind of direction we would be hoping to go. He handles most ground, but possibly better ground might suit. Hopefully we will see him at Punchestown."



Monalee at 33/1 is actually quite fair. He looks held by Percy but the price different is too big.

[Scooby91]

I've just a few small goes on Danny Kirwan 'any race' I know now would seem a silly time to put a bet on him but it was funds sitting in the account and I'd only likely spend it on something not worth a bean anyway, so thought a small, early investment would do me no harm.

Small Lucky 15 on also, Melon (CH), Penhill (Stayers'), Laurina (Mares) & Douvan (CC).

I know there is every likelihood that Douvan now steps up in trip but I honestly have never seen him travel that well as he did this festival, he looked powerful and strong and I am adament he wins that race had he not made the error, I was so taken with him, I just hope they keep him at 2m now.

I want Footpad for the Ryanair, but can't seem to get a price for him in that currently.

Id agree with footpad, possibly Ryanair I can't see him going gold cup next year over 3m2. I wouldn't knock a gc run the future. Might be one that gets slightly overpriced any race at a later date and end up in the Ryanair.

[Kevloaf]

I'm relaly tempted by 111/1 on Buveur D'air, Altior and Penhill.

Unless Samcro turned up in the CH (VERY unlikely) there are no novice hurdlers to worry about, and despite Melon getting close, BVD did beat him and is now a dual festival winner... 7/2 is fair for him.

In fact, 7/2 is too big - he was 4/1 for this seasons and he's only been clipped half a point in the market!

Altior would beat any of the horses from this years CC and I'd although I'd respect Footpad, he isn't certain to turn up and would be put in his place still.

Penhill has no opposition coming through as most staying novice hurdlers go chasing and he's beaten the rest.

111/1 with Unibet

[Faugheen_Machine]

I'm relaly tempted by 111/1 on Buveur D'air, Altior and Penhill.

Unless Samcro turned up in the CH (VERY unlikely) there are no novice hurdlers to worry about, and despite Melon getting close, BVD did beat him and is now a dual festival winner... 7/2 is fair for him.

In fact, 7/2 is too big - he was 4/1 for this seasons and he's only been clipped half a point in the market!

Altior would beat any of the horses from this years CC and I'd although I'd respect Footpad, he isn't certain to turn up and would be put in his place still.

Penhill has no opposition coming through as most staying novice hurdlers go chasing and he's beaten the rest.

111/1 with Unibet

Buveur is a great price. I said it last year and I'm going to do the same and back him every week until he goes below 3/1.

[Kevloaf]

2019 bets so far:

Samcro - RSA - 14/1 (1 pt) and 10/1 (2 pts)
Samcro to win Ballymore/RSA/Gold Cup - 250/1 (2 pts)

Presenting Percy - Gold Cup - 40/1 (2.5 pts)
Monalee - Gold Cup - 33/1 (2.5 pts)

Yankee (2 pts) 9247/1 Annamix,Laurina,Benie Des Dieux,Presenting Percy (Supreme/Mares/Ryanair/Gold Cup)

Trixie (2 pts) 110/1 Buveur D'air, Altior, Penhill

E/W Double (3 pts) 39.5/1 Buveur D'air, Penhill

[Kevloaf]

Will want to see prices for:
Tiger Roll XC
Cause of Causes XC