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Originally posted by Kevloaf
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Correct.
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Good stuff.Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
Agreed on the end of season races being the best, too.Comment
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Yeah, the 'any race' market was what I initially looked at, Ladbrokes were best price 14's that I could find, WH are 12's.Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
Same trainer has Vision Des Flos, Slate House & Lostintranslation, as what I'd imagine would be his top novice chasers along with Kilbricken Storm for the coming season, but the latter is the only one I can see going further than 3m. Admittedly, he can run 2 in one race, he did in the Supreme, but then again, I am thinking that was mostly for experience, given they are all likely thought of as future chasers and not hurdlers anyway.
I think Tizzard will have a better festival this time around too. Already in on Vision Des Flos 'any race', you've also mentioned Slate House too, I just think these horses were geared towards chasing and anything over hurdles was a bonus for them.Comment
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Its September so my ante-post guessing can now begin!
I have a question for you all, interested on peoples thoughts...
In previous years, if the price dictates, I have always played a horse each way. I'm wondering if actually 'win only' is the way to go?Comment
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Always go e/way personally with the exception of free bets, mostly because I won't back anything short enough in price this far out anyway, unless in a speculative multi, in which case always e/way also.Originally posted by Innoko View Post
Plenty will have different ideas on stakes of course, each to their own I guess.Comment
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This far out I never back each way. I don't like the idea of losing twice as much when they don't show up in March.Originally posted by Innoko View PostComment
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Two replies, two differing opinions and I can see both posts are quite valid!
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Annamix 20/1 Supreme
Samcro 7/1 Champion Hurdle
Altior 6/4 QMCC
Penhill 6/1 Stayers
€10 free bet pays 29kComment
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Have you been nibbling at Penhill again Kevloaf...7/1 with Coral now.Originally posted by Kevloaf View PostComment
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Most of mine are win only. I’ve a few at 20/1 which are win only bets.Originally posted by Innoko View Post
Though I do have ITCF at 33/1 as an each way bet. But that’s more because of possibly coming up against Samcro than the price.Comment
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Ew ante post bets can work brilliantly if you get a good price for first three then only 5 or 6 turn up, you still get the 3 places, but then again your win bet looks much better too with fewer rivals, and your stake is split in half. Very much a personal preference kinda thing, I'm happy to go ew with a decent price.Originally posted by Innoko View PostComment
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Win only pretty much all the way for me, worked great last year so won't be changing tactics. Would have seriously hit my overall margin if I had bet e/w on the likes of Samcro and Footpad.Comment
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I asked a very similar question when I joined the forum and FM has the exact same reply then, which I completely agree with and I definitely made a more concious effort to place more 'win-only' bets after that.Originally posted by Innoko View Post
My thought process on the 'each way' part before I make a bet is loosely:
1. Real Price - The 'real' return for the each way bet. 20/1 at 1/5 the odds is NOT 4/1 for the place. It's 6/4.in net profit terms - now in September 2018, do I want to be effectivly backing any horse at 6/4 yet for March 2019? Absolutely not.
2. The likely field size - MrM makes a very good point above and I always consider an each way bet more strongly if you're confident you'll have less than 8 runners in a race... which is sort of linked to the next point too.
3. Market rivals/The market - I'd always look at how the market is shaping up... We KNOW which horses are going for the Gold Cup in the main, and you can't rule loads of them out near the top of the market if they got there. I'd suggest it is very tough to find a value each way bet in the Gold Cup, because for any horse you picked at an 'each way price' I'd be able to find at least 3 with a 'place chance' as well, so you don't really have an edge - whereas a race like the Arkle is much more likely to cut up, and horses will get beaten in trials and step up in trip in search of improvement and go for other targets etc - so it is theoretically easier to find each way value in some races more than others.
4. What will the market be like on the day - This is less of a significant point, as some prices will be long gone, but the enhanced place terms that are available closer to the day (as well as NRNB guarentee later in the season) are still considerations before I back each way.Comment
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I've always been in the win only camp for antepost purposes, too.
You first have to get the horse to the race, and then it has to win.
I think that I'll be able to utilise the funds by having access to them, rather than waiting on a short priced place bet. if I have access to it, rather than waiting on a short priced bet.Comment
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After reading all of excellent the advice I am now 'win only' on the vast majority of my ante post this year.
Having looked at last years results, I would of been significantly better off had I done this so feel it is the way forward...
Fingers crossed....
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