Cheltenham 2019 Ante-Post bets

[somer1]

Skybet has Gillgamboa for the foxhunters @ 14/1 for the win

[Faugheen_Machine]

Kalashnikov now listed as the most popular bet on the Cheltenham section of Oddschecker

[Kevloaf]

I'm amazed you've gone 3 months without a Cheltenham single Kev.

Haha, I'd bet 66.5 pts on "next years" festival at this stage 12 months ago (with 6.8 pts in "free bets")

This time its 39.4 pts (although have 30.3 pts on "free bets" additionally this year)

The only winning bets I had this time last year though were Samcro any race and Buveur D'air at 4/1 and if we extend it another 9 days, by 25th July last year I'd have had 4 winning bets (Blow by Blow any race and a double with Enable in the Arc and Altior)

So I'm trying to be less 'speculative' this time around

[Faugheen_Machine]

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/murphy-excited-by-kalashnikov/144980

For those with an interest in Kalashnikov

[Kevloaf]

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/...shnikov/144980

For those with an interest in Kalashnikov

The last couple of lines in regards to target...

"We will start him of over two miles. Whether that is where we stick, I don't know as I thought he wanted further this season. He will tell us where to go."

I suppose the ideal scenario is he is winning over 2m and then theres a softish race over further that he hacks up in looking like he has improved for a step up.

As you said earlier, any amount of improvement on his hurdle form and he's a serious player on usual ratings.

[Kevloaf]

I've had two doubles tonight with Coral including their 'Any Race' market

34/1 - Penhill (Stayers) and Samcro (Any Race) - 2 pts win
29/1 - Penhill (Stayers) and Laurina (Any Race - 2 pts win

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Who do we see as Mullins Arkle horse this year?

[SAMCRO]

I think Laurina.

Cant see them going chasing with melon after his 2nd in the champion hurdle on ground he wouldn't have liked. Benie des Dieux all being well will contest the mares again which suggests Laurina for the arkle.

Bapaume would also be one id consider.

[Faugheen_Machine]

I also think it could be Laurina.

[SAMCRO]

14s is nice odds but id imagine all it would take for a change of target would be an injury to either melon or Benie.

[Kevloaf]

Who do we see as Mullins Arkle horse this year?

Last 5 years:
2014 - Champagne Fever 11/4J
2015 - Un De Sceaux 4/6F (Vautour moved to the JLT)
2016 - Douvan 1/4
2017 - Royal Caviar 6/1 (moved Yorkhill to the JLT to avoid Altior?)
2018 - Footpad 5/6

First place I'd think to look would be the previous years Supreme, as Champange Fever and Douvan all ran it it (as did Min and Vautour who both could have lined up)... which would bring up Getabird, Sharjah. Not sure of the plans for either are chasing... I'd expect a step up in trip for Getabird and Sharjah didn't look to be top of the class.

Melon going chasing would be a surprise (albeit an exciting one) for me because I don't think he's similar to Footpad desite both running in the CH. Footpad was purposfully held back a year and tried over further after a juvenile campaign, whereas Melon has shown more ability as a 2 mile hurdler and is more lihgtly raced... I don't think they'll send him over a fence.

I can't see any Mullins horse thats ever contested the Ballymore and gone on to be a novice chaser as 2 miles, and as a creature of some habbit I'd rule any of those out.

Looking outside of his Cheltenham runners, I was keenest on Sayar for most of the season, but not sure of the plans....

Which leaves Laurina, Cilaos Emery and probably quite a few others that I've not got enough time now to look into.

I have had some free bets on Laurina at 14s but I couldn't part with any cash at the moment.... POSSIBLY a double with Benie Des Diuex in the Mares Hurdle but I'd still be inclined to have a free bet on... and her price is plenty short enough in the any race market.
Mullins said he wants a Mares Novice Chase at the festival... so you can read in to that what you will.

Nothing would surprise me... there is no standout Arkle horse IMO for Mullins.

[BigChaang]

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/...shnikov/144980

For those with an interest in Kalashnikov

'cheer's Faugheen. knew i'd seen it somewhere

[Kevloaf]

I just thought about Vision Des Flos for the Arkle... 20/1, humbug. I wanted 50s!

I've seen Vinndication in the JLT market at 33/1 - unbeaten for Kim Bailey, beat Western Ryder quite easily in Feb before being put away. I imagine chasing is the way they go and he's been around the intermediate trip. He interest anyone?

[Kevloaf]

Bare with me on this...

We've got enough evidence now to suggest that Ricci is only really interested in winners at the festival (fair enough) - His only winner this year was Benie Des Dieux in the Mares Hurdle. Although I strongly believe Mullins/Walsh/Casey/Patrick make the decisions, BDD was the C&D festival winner - I can't see any logical reason that the Mares Hurdle won't be the target again. She's a best price 4/1 with WH

With that being a pretty confident target in my mind, will the Mullins' hype horse, Laurina take her on? I can't see it... the Mares Hurdle is the natural step after winning the Mares Novice race, but if they've already got the favourite, what do they do with Laurina? The owners certainly don't mind a challenge, and that does make the Champion Hurdle a big possibility... but at 14/1 best price with WH I'm going to take a chance on her going chasing. Mullins said he wishes there was a Mares Chase at the festival, and although that won't happen, it wouldn't take a huge leap of imagination to see Laurina going down the Novice Chase route next season... and with the Supreme winner staying over hurdles, and no real stand out candidates at 2 miles, she could very easily end up a short priced favourite in an Arkle.

7/2 on WH is the best price you can get for Buveur D'air for the Champion Hurdle, which rounds off the trixie. The second fav would likely be Melon, who he's already beaten and seems to always find one too good, and the case if obvious - I don't need to go on.

336.5/1 is enticing with WH (a very clear best price) - but with the boost it shoots up to 449/1
I almost can't resist.

I think I will have the patent - you all have 24 hours to talk me out of it.....

[ryanh97]

Bare with me on this...

We've got enough evidence now to suggest that Ricci is only really interested in winners at the festival (fair enough) - His only winner this year was Benie Des Dieux in the Mares Hurdle. Although I strongly believe Mullins/Walsh/Casey/Patrick make the decisions, BDD was the C&D festival winner - I can't see any logical reason that the Mares Hurdle won't be the target again. She's a best price 4/1 with WH

With that being a pretty confident target in my mind, will the Mullins' hype horse, Laurina take her on? I can't see it... the Mares Hurdle is the natural step after winning the Mares Novice race, but if they've already got the favourite, what do they do with Laurina? The owners certainly don't mind a challenge, and that does make the Champion Hurdle a big possibility... but at 14/1 best price with WH I'm going to take a chance on her going chasing. Mullins said he wishes there was a Mares Chase at the festival, and although that won't happen, it wouldn't take a huge leap of imagination to see Laurina going down the Novice Chase route next season... and with the Supreme winner staying over hurdles, and no real stand out candidates at 2 miles, she could very easily end up a short priced favourite in an Arkle.

7/2 on WH is the best price you can get for Buveur D'air for the Champion Hurdle, which rounds off the trixie. The second fav would likely be Melon, who he's already beaten and seems to always find one too good, and the case if obvious - I don't need to go on.

336.5/1 is enticing with WH (a very clear best price) - but with the boost it shoots up to 449/1
I almost can't resist.

I think I will have the patent - you all have 24 hours to talk me out of it.....

I couldn't attempt to, solid argument to me. Someone talk me out of following him in