Cheltenham 2019 Ante-Post bets

[Kevloaf]

Is everyone of the opinion that Laurina will stick to hurdles for next year then? Every quote from the yard seems to refer to her size and that she ‘could jump a fence’. Another year over hurdles then fences after?

Thanks Scooby, Jono and COD. I'm new to getting involved early in comparison to most of you so it's all very helpful.

Just for the record, now would be too early to be getting involved in any Willie Mullins horse unless you we're all but certain of the target... I'm sure the others agree ?

[Kevloaf]

Is everyone of the opinion that Laurina will stick to hurdles for next year then? Every quote from the yard seems to refer to her size and that she ‘could jump a fence’. Another year over hurdles then fences after?

First post on the forum and chuffed to see I'm not the only one who loves an antepost punt!

Samcro the big talking point it appears so I will weigh in with my tuppance worth on him... I believe he will go RSA, working up slowly in distance on the run up to the Festival as suggested earlier in the thread. I'm taking this view mainly on the expected going with it surely not being as soft as it was this year. 3m on good to soft will be right up his street in my opinion and 10/1 seems reasonable. No race will be a gimme but wherever he turns up he will scare off some of the opposition although I would expect Black Op to make a race of it because that one really does look an out and out stayer.

In the Supreme I have sided with last years talking horse Annamix (16/1) as nothing from this edition of the Bumper really impressed me. Blackbow could be the one to take from the race but other than that I think the quality was on a par wth the 2017 running - not that great. Special mention to Envoi Allen and Dlauro purely based on their price tags and performances in P2P's but they could end up anywhere so with that in mind Annamix looks the 'safe' option to me.

For the Champion Hurdle I really fancy the chances of Summerville Boy (20/1). Tom George has suggested the plan is to remain over the smaller obstacles and if he can iron out the errors he will give BVD something to think about next season because this is a really weak division at the moment.

Bit of buzz on Twitter for Chante Neige (12/1) for the Mares Novice. Shot in the dark tbh but has apparently been given time off to strengthen up since going to Mullins last year. Will no doubt sluice up in a weak race and go off odds-on next year.

The Gold Cup will be all about Presenting Percy (6/1) for me. So impressive in the RSA this year and I believe it will take a very good animal to stop him at the course he loves. I think the GC this year will have taken the edge off Native River and with Might Bite becoming a 10 yr old I think they have missed their chance with him.

I have no idea where they will go with Footpad. Mullins suggesting stepping up in trip (desperate to win a GC) but he looks every inch a solid Champion Chase contender although has some stepping up to do in order to worry Altior. Monalee looks like he would enjoy the RyanAir and could possibly meet Petit Mouchoir if that one was stepped up in trip.

All-in-all, lots of discussion to be had and money to waste but only 357 days to go!

Welcome to the forum

Just stumbled across? Or a long-time lurker?

[filthyewaypunter]

Google searched “Cheltenham 2019 antepost”

[billymag]

Anyone know much about Dento des obeaux?

[SeanRock]

I like the look of Carefully Selected for the Albert Bartlett. He has lovely profile for it even at this early stage...

Edit: Found this snippet from Willie after he won his bumper at Leopardstown.

"I have to give him a crack at a winners' bumper rather than go hurdling now and chasing next year," Mullins said of Carefully Selected.
"He could be an Albert Bartlett horse for next year. That's the sort of road I'd be aiming at.

"There were a lot of fancied horses there and he made them look ordinary. He gallops all day and he's not the slowest horse either."

Think il take a chance on the 20/1 available now...

[Marty973]

Just for the record, now would be too early to be getting involved in any Willie Mullins horse unless you we're all but certain of the target... I'm sure the others agree ?

Thanks Kev. The only bets I will have of any kind this far out will be free bets.

[Marty973]

Welcome to the forum

Just stumbled across? Or a long-time lurker?

I stumbled across it in January this year and found it very helpful. Tiger Roll in particular is one that sticks in my mind that I would never have ended up on had I not joined the forum. Brought up the 3rd leg of my Samcro, Altior, Tiger Roll Treble.

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Be interesting to see which routes Willie sends his bumper horses next season; Blackbow and Hollowgraphic would seem the obvious Supreme and Ballymore horses at this stage to me

[ComplyOrDie]

Be interesting to see which routes Willie sends his bumper horses next season; Blackbow and Hollowgraphic would seem the obvious Supreme and Ballymore horses at this stage to me

I'm not sure I can back a champion bumper horse that ends up at Cheltenham for a hurdles race at the festival.

I'm not sure on the official statistics but I'm pretty sure it's not a profitable path to follow.

For this years festival from the previous years bumper, they look like the following (in order of bumper finish):

Debuchet 9th in Supreme (2nd)
Claimintakinforgan 5th in Supreme (3rd)
Next Destination 3rd in Ballymore (4th)
Western Ryder 6th in Supreme (5th)
Carter McKay 11th in Martin Pipe (15th)

And the previous years:

Ballyandy 4th in Supreme (1st)
Battleford 8th in Martin Pipe (2nd)
Bacardys PU in Neptune (3rd)
Castello Sforza 10th in Martin Pipe (4th)
High Bridge 9th in Supreme (6th)
Augusta Kate 6th in Albert Bartlett (7th)
Rather Be Unseated in Martin Pipe (9th)

Basically, the markets are initially made up of champion bumper horses from the previous season and they seem to fail to perform the next year. I made a point about it on the Supreme thread for the festival just gone, I will stick by it and it certainly is more profitable avoiding them than it is backing them. Hollowgraphic, a bit like Samcro, avoided the festival bumper so he could well be a decent type to follow, but Blackbow will not be seeing the colour of money at all.

[billymag]

Any know anything about Dento Des Obeaux, cheers

[Middle_Of_March]

I'm not sure I can back a champion bumper horse that ends up at Cheltenham for a hurdles race at the festival.

I'm not sure on the official statistics but I'm pretty sure it's not a profitable path to follow.

For this years festival from the previous years bumper, they look like the following (in order of bumper finish):

Debuchet 9th in Supreme (2nd)
Claimintakinforgan 5th in Supreme (3rd)
Next Destination 3rd in Ballymore (4th)
Western Ryder 6th in Supreme (5th)
Carter McKay 11th in Martin Pipe (15th)

And the previous years:

Ballyandy 4th in Supreme (1st)
Battleford 8th in Martin Pipe (2nd)
Bacardys PU in Neptune (3rd)
Castello Sforza 10th in Martin Pipe (4th)
High Bridge 9th in Supreme (6th)
Augusta Kate 6th in Albert Bartlett (7th)
Rather Be Unseated in Martin Pipe (9th)

Basically, the markets are initially made up of champion bumper horses from the previous season and they seem to fail to perform the next year. I made a point about it on the Supreme thread for the festival just gone, I will stick by it and it certainly is more profitable avoiding them than it is backing them. Hollowgraphic, a bit like Samcro, avoided the festival bumper so he could well be a decent type to follow, but Blackbow will not be seeing the colour of money at all.

Good post. I’d thought similar but didn’t know the stats.

Hollowgraphic looked like a bit of a monster before his setback and if I was to back any for next season, it would be him. I’d say he’s a Ballymore type. I think Felix Desjy will be a better hurdler than bumper horse - probably Ballymore for him too.

[ComplyOrDie]

Any know anything about Dento Des Obeaux, cheers

Only that he's trained by Willie, owned by Sullivan Bloodstock, and ran once in France, other than that, no, sorry!

[ComplyOrDie]

Good post. I’d thought similar but didn’t know the stats.

Hollowgraphic looked like a bit of a monster before his setback and if I was to back any for next season, it would be him. I’d say he’s a Ballymore type. I think Felix Desjy will be a better hurdler than bumper horse - probably Ballymore for him too.

Yeah, it's probably ridiculous to say you have any to follow so soon after completing this years festival but I agree, Hollowgraphic is one of the two I am following for the Ballymore, the other being Danny Kirwan.

Early visuals were very exciting for both. I hope both live up to the expectations I have of them.

No doubt there will be plenty of the French, unseen, types that will make the markets for both the Supreme & Ballymore as next season gets underway.

[Scooby91]

Only that he's trained by Willie, owned by Sullivan Bloodstock, and ran once in France, other than that, no, sorry!

He's nothing exciting on paper in terms of grade 1s. 5th in his hurdle at nantes, bought form a vendor who wouldn't be the usual type to recommend him one. Mullins can work wonders given time but There's much more likely types he's acquired imo.
Maccaire and fouin are the usual suspects to lay him out a nice novice that's retained his status.

[SeanRock]

I'm not sure I can back a champion bumper horse that ends up at Cheltenham for a hurdles race at the festival.

I'm not sure on the official statistics but I'm pretty sure it's not a profitable path to follow.

For this years festival from the previous years bumper, they look like the following (in order of bumper finish):

Debuchet 9th in Supreme (2nd)
Claimintakinforgan 5th in Supreme (3rd)
Next Destination 3rd in Ballymore (4th)
Western Ryder 6th in Supreme (5th)
Carter McKay 11th in Martin Pipe (15th)

And the previous years:

Ballyandy 4th in Supreme (1st)
Battleford 8th in Martin Pipe (2nd)
Bacardys PU in Neptune (3rd)
Castello Sforza 10th in Martin Pipe (4th)
High Bridge 9th in Supreme (6th)
Augusta Kate 6th in Albert Bartlett (7th)
Rather Be Unseated in Martin Pipe (9th)

Basically, the markets are initially made up of champion bumper horses from the previous season and they seem to fail to perform the next year. I made a point about it on the Supreme thread for the festival just gone, I will stick by it and it certainly is more profitable avoiding them than it is backing them. Hollowgraphic, a bit like Samcro, avoided the festival bumper so he could well be a decent type to follow, but Blackbow will not be seeing the colour of money at all.

I'd be quietly confident Carefully Selected will be a force to be reckoned with in the staying novice hurdle division next year. A fine big slab of a horse coming from a successful PTP background I'm sure anything he does in bumpers is only a bonus until he goes jumping obstacles.