Cheltenham 2019 Ante-Post bets

[ComplyOrDie]

I can see why you would think JLT. He obviously has buckets of pace, and has already beat everything from the Neptune.

Would anything from either the Albert Bartlett or Stayers really scare them though.

I don't think anything will scare them when it comes to Samcro, as far I as I can make out they literally believe he is the best they have ever had!

It will more be a case of horses avoiding him now I think!

[Folski]

I don't think anything will scare them when it comes to Samcro, as far I as I can make out they literally believe he is the best they have ever had!

It will more be a case of horses avoiding him now I think!

You are probably spot on with that. Nailed on for RSA for me though, my biggest worry is they would be tempted to go Gold Cup, but I think MOL has more sense.

[KingSprinterSacre]

I would be most surprised to see Samcro go to the RSA. To me he is in Kauto mould. He will get 3m+ in the future because hes classy, but there is no need to stretch him out now. Hes the future and needs to be moulded and brought along.
Gordon and Giggy have blow by blow and cracking smart that could go to the RSA (one will go RSA the other 4miler imo).

I can really see him going to the Arkle and destroying the field.

At the minute i'd see it as -

1. Arkle
2. JLT
3. RSA



4. Champion hurdle (next to no chance).

[Kevloaf]

I would be most surprised to see Samcro go to the RSA. To me he is in Kauto mould. He will get 3m+ in the future because hes classy, but there is no need to stretch him out now. Hes the future and needs to be moulded and brought along.
Gordon and Giggy have blow by blow and cracking smart that could go to the RSA (one will go RSA the other 4miler imo).

I can really see him going to the Arkle and destroying the field.

At the minute i'd see it as -

1. Arkle
2. JLT
3. RSA



4. Champion hurdle (next to no chance).

Most surprised by the RSA?

Ive done a fairly lengthy post about that and I can't see that way of thinking BECAUSE it's a Gigginstown decision.

If he wasn't owned by Giggi you'd be on the mark ... but go back and pick apart my post KSS ... having CS and BBB isn't reason you switch their star IMO

[KingSprinterSacre]

Most surprised by the RSA?

Ive done a fairly lengthy post about that and I can't see that way of thinking BECAUSE it's a Gigginstown decision.

If he wasn't owned by Giggi you'd be on the mark ... but go back and pick apart my post KSS ... having CS and BBB isn't reason you switch their star IMO

Most surprised of the 3 novice chases (i'm discounting the champion hurdle as I don't think he will go there).
Going by your eyes Kev would you be looking to running him over 3m? I understand your point about running their best over 3m but if the horse isn't suited to it YET I don't think they will for the sake of it. They will have other very strong options for the race.
This isn't some slow boat, its a speedy classy horse. 3m stamina test is not what he needs yet in my opinion. There is time for that in a couple of years.
Consider how relieved Gordy and Eddie were that he won. "It was pure relief that he had gone and done it. If you had told us that Samcro would be our only winner at Cheltenham we'd most definitely have taken it. That would have done us," O'Leary added.
I genuinely believe they will look after him, bring him along properly and will be rewarded in the long term. I don't see them throwing him at a specific race just because they have done it in the past with very different horses.

[KingSprinterSacre]

p.s - I love that we are debating a horses next year target less than a week after this years festival

[archie]

You should bear in mind that it was last October that the FJ bankers for 2018 were Fayonagh, Cause Of Causes, Apples Jade and Samcro.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

And that is why I will just be backing him in the 'Any Race' market (although a predictably poorer price than guessing the race) until we get a clearer picture. I think I have seen every race possible as a target from one person or another, that's how hard this one is to take aim at IMO. 5/2 (WH) for a predicted odds on banker come the festival, assuming he gets there well, which we all hope he does, will seem like a solid price.....IN A YEARS TIME

That said I am still open to the debate about which race he goes for

Is there not something that everyone in this Samcro targer debate is taking for granted... Will the horse be able to jump a fence? We had a classic case last season with the highly regarded Finians Oscar who couldn't jump for toffee. That factor alone will stop me getting involved in the any race market at short odds. For those following the game more closely than me how common is it for a horse not to take to jumping the way Finians Oscar did?

[Istabraq]

I'll say it now, he doesn't win at next years festival....

[Kevloaf]

You should bear in mind that it was last October that the FJ bankers for 2018 were Fayonagh, Cause Of Causes, Apples Jade and Samcro.

3 of them went off favourite ... I don't think that's a negative?

[Kevloaf]

Most surprised of the 3 novice chases (i'm discounting the champion hurdle as I don't think he will go there).
Going by your eyes Kev would you be looking to running him over 3m? I understand your point about running their best over 3m but if the horse isn't suited to it YET I don't think they will for the sake of it. They will have other very strong options for the race.
This isn't some slow boat, its a speedy classy horse. 3m stamina test is not what he needs yet in my opinion. There is time for that in a couple of years.
Consider how relieved Gordy and Eddie were that he won. "It was pure relief that he had gone and done it. If you had told us that Samcro would be our only winner at Cheltenham we'd most definitely have taken it. That would have done us," O'Leary added.
I genuinely believe they will look after him, bring him along properly and will be rewarded in the long term. I don't see them throwing him at a specific race just because they have done it in the past with very different horses.

Going by my eyes I'd have him in the JLT.
The point on the target is almost exclusively the connections.
I'd ssy they run horses in the wrong race often (more often than any other owners force anyway)

I dont think they'll be "throwing him at any race" ... but they'll try him over 3m and if he wins he's RSA bound surely.

The beauty of the Irish calendar is that he'll have to be tested too ....

If we get new evidence (exactly like death duty) then I'll think the target would change ... but the default is RSA for Gigginstown's best chaser?

[Kevloaf]

Is there not something that everyone in this Samcro targer debate is taking for granted... Will the horse be able to jump a fence? We had a classic case last season with the highly regarded Finians Oscar who couldn't jump for toffee. That factor alone will stop me getting involved in the any race market at short odds. For those following the game more closely than me how common is it for a horse not to take to jumping the way Finians Oscar did?

Yes it's a very valid point and we are taking it for granted.

I do think tough as ante post punters you do gave to take the punt before they jump a fence. Samcro will get clipped before he runs.

It'll identical to this year, having to take the price before he jumps a hurdle ... some will say he's priced on hype done Will be happy to take that.

I'll be in the latter camp

[archie]

3 of them went off favourite ..

I don't think so.

This year I only had 3 bets that weren't nrnb - Petit Mouchoir (any race), Buveur D'Air and Melon (EW). Good luck to anyone who builds up a book over the months but, at this stage I'd want 10/1 or more about Pegasus.

[Hurricane fly]

I know they buy every horse with the goal to be a Gold Cup horse but to play devils advocate, is it 100% that he was idling up the hill and not that he was tiring? Gordon spoke about a drop in trip which maybe hints he thinks he was too? He doesn’t put much between himself and black op after the last, but because he won and we all think he’s a machine we assume he is idling.

We won’t know how much he has in the tank until it comes to a battle, and there is always the threat of him not staying, you could argue Faugheen was kept at 2m but the Champions hurdle vs stayers is a different argument to CC vs Ryanair vs Gold Cup

[SeanRock]

Topofthegame looks a nice prospect for the RSA. He’s a huge scopey type that looks made for jumping a fence. I think it was a shrewd move from Nicholls keeping his novice status for next season after he fell on his chasing debut. A backward type he should fill out into his massive frame in time and will be a lot stronger come next year. I wasn’t sure if Cheltenham would suit him but he ran a blinder in the Coral Cup and 16/1 isn’t too bad a price.