2017 Festival Winners

[jono]

Over the 3 years gives a total of:

22-40 runners
17-47 runners
12-34 runners
16-43 runners

=

67-164 runners = 41% strikerate.
More importantly will be the SP's and i'll let Kev have the honours there...

Have to say the day one at 2016 festival really was ridiculously good across the card resulting in:

1,2,3 in the Gold Cup
1,2 in the Champion Hurdle
1st in the Stayers

and If Douvan hadn't of got injured it would have been a clean sweep of the 4 championship races. Some doing that!

[Kevloaf]

Over the 3 years gives a total of:

22-40 runners
17-47 runners
12-34 runners
16-43 runners

=

67-164 runners = 41% strikerate.
More importantly will be the SP's and i'll let Kev have the honours there...

Decided to look strictly at winners, so from your work for 2014, 2015 and 2016 backing every runner at SP for £1 looks like this (by day):

Day 1 - 9 winners - £1 stake @ SP - +£23.50
Day 2 - 5 winners £1 stake @ SP - -£15.95
Day 3 - 7 winners £1 stake @ SP - +£2.25
Day 4 - 7 winners £1 stake @ SP - +£8.76

and looks like this by year....

2014 placed horses in 2015 - +£17.93
2015 placed horses in 2016 - -£25.37
2016 placed horses in 2017 - +£26.00

Giving a total for the 3 years of: +£18.56

[archie]

Thanks for the information and hard work guys.

Given the excitement generated by this weekend's meeting, it's perhaps worth adding the nugget that, of last season's 28 Festival winners, none won at the opening meeting last season and just two (interestingly Irish challengers Tiger Roll and Rock The World) actually ran there. A natural extension of the season start date stat I suppose.

[BigChaang]

I second that Archie , Thanks Kev & Jono, . Interesting too about the stat from this weekends meeting .
I wonder if the previous season was similar , will try to look it up.

[BigChaang]

I could only find one placed horse at the 2016 festival - Rock the world- 3rd . won at the october meeting .

[Kevloaf]

I could only find one placed horse at the 2016 festival - Rock the world- 3rd . won at the october meeting .

I suppose a combination of usually very different ground and fitness levels are the reason for that.... you'd certainly have expected few more though

[archie]

Mostly, selecting Festival winners is a matter of elimination. Running before November would be one of my early question marks.

[BigChaang]

Decided to take a look into Novembers chelt. meeting . 2016 festival more fruitful.
Tues - Altior - 1st / 1st nov
- Un temps pour tout - 1st / 2nd nov
Wed - More of that - 3rd / 1st nov
- Sprintre sacre - 1st / 1st nov
- Josies orders - 1st / 1st nov
- Bless the wings - 2nd / 3rd nov
- Ballyandy - 1st / 1st nov
Fri - Superb story - 1st / 2nd nov
U.n.w.i.m.h - 1st / 1st nov .

[BigChaang]

and 2017 festival. - Wed . -Taquin du seuil - 2nd / 1st nov
- Special Tiara - 1st / 3rd nov
- Fox norton - 2nd / 1st nov
- Defi du seuil - 1st / 1st nov
- Wholestone - 3rd / 2nd nov
- minella rocco - 2nd / 3rd nov

[BigChaang]

Either 2016 was a good year or 2017 was a bad year , I'd think the latter, given some of the results .

[archie]

Thanks for that BC. My theory about last year is that it was an exceptionally dry early autumn and many horses went into hard training later than the previous year.

[robith]

Been thinking a lot on this on getting some ante post value based on this, looking for horses 10s or over

Pulled together:

Melon - CH - 16/1
Willoughby Court - JLT - 16/1
Might Bite - GC - 10/1
Monalee - RSA - 16/1

Obvs they all need to get there but Lucky 15 2 places to break even (ish) and all placing returns 88 points profit?

[Kevloaf]

Been thinking a lot on this on getting some ante post value based on this, looking for horses 10s or over

Pulled together:

Melon - CH - 16/1
Willoughby Court - JLT - 16/1
Might Bite - GC - 10/1
Monalee - RSA - 16/1

Obvs they all need to get there but Lucky 15 2 places to break even (ish) and all placing returns 88 points profit?

Not a bad looking bet at all in my opinion.... and that is one per day, maybe you've done the Fat Jockey Forum Yankee already



** suppose the problem lies when at the moment there are multiple horses in each race that fall in to those catogories.... Presenting Percy(RSA), Petit Mouchoir(Arkle), Fox Norton(CC), Yanworth(JLT) for example could be another....

[robith]

Not a bad looking bet at all in my opinion.... and that is one per day, maybe you've done the Fat Jockey Forum Yankee already



** suppose the problem lies when at the moment there are multiple horses in each race that fall in to those catogories.... Presenting Percy(RSA), Petit Mouchoir(Arkle), Fox Norton(CC), Yanworth(JLT) for example could be another....

Yarp, maybe it's still too far out

[Leman14]

Thought that it was worth giving this a bump.

Now that the list of entries (for the championship races) is getting smaller - we have 6 races with a more manageable workload...

I'll start to look through the remaining entries for each - highlighting those with placed festival form.
(For the Championship races - most will be obvious BUT I reckon that we will uncover a couple of left-field possibilities at decent prices)