National Hunt Chase (4 miler) 2018

[BigChaang]

Debece gets a good mention on the #MNR podcast.... but for the RSA

I have Debece for the R.S.A chase . 33-1.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Thanks Kev - I'll have a listen

[Kevloaf]

No problem.

Racing Post x2 (Monday and Friday)
Final Furlong (Usually Wednesday)
Monday Night Review (Usually comes out Tuesday)
Matchbook Podcast (Usually Thursday)(has a little bit for horse racing usually... and NFL actually but I guess you're already aware of that one?)
Racehour Podcast (Sponsered by BetBright, seems a bit sporadic but good guests when on)
Horse Racing Ireland (Little snippets in the week and a Friday preview)
Talksport (They do mostly other sports but they do a Saturday preview...although think it is done live on Talksport in the morning and just gets posted a few days later as a podcast which isn't as useful)


If you know of any others anybody.... let me know.

[Scooby91]

No problem.

Racing Post x2 (Monday and Friday)
Final Furlong (Usually Wednesday)
Monday Night Review (Usually comes out Tuesday)
Matchbook Podcast (Usually Thursday)(has a little bit for horse racing usually... and NFL actually but I guess you're already aware of that one?)
Racehour Podcast (Sponsered by BetBright, seems a bit sporadic but good guests when on)
Horse Racing Ireland (Little snippets in the week and a Friday preview)
Talksport (They do mostly other sports but they do a Saturday preview...although think it is done live on Talksport in the morning and just gets posted a few days later as a podcast which isn't as useful)


If you know of any others anybody.... let me know.

Not a podcast but always look forward to, "on the line", with matt chapman on atr

[Faugheen_Machine]

Not a podcast but always look forward to, "on the line", with matt chapman on atr

Chappers is great value. It is essential viewing.

[Scooby91]

Chappers is great value. It is essential viewing.

Off topic, but Brian from benfleet and jai / his brother never disappoint.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Off topic, but Brian from benfleet and jai / his brother never disappoint.

[Geordieboy83]

I used to love Final Furlong, but never seems to work on my phone and that was my only way of viewing now as no longer have my Firestick where I used to get it on.

[Faugheen_Machine]

I used to love Final Furlong, but never seems to work on my phone and that was my only way of viewing now as no longer have my Firestick where I used to get it on.

If you have an android phone I'd recommend getting the Pocket Cast app. It costs a couple of quid but is well with the money.

[jono]

Glad to hear a few more shouts on Debece. I do think connections will hope he'll end up an RSA horse but I see this race being ideal and more likely, especially now he has his winner at the track - this horse could be his best chance yet of winning at the festival so I imagine he'll go for the race he is most likely to win. Following Tim Vaughans success at the weekend I have gone in for my first bet in the race at 40/1. Without wanting to offend the trainer, my main worry actually is whether he can attract a top jockey for the ride come March which is so important in the race but everything else I like so at the price is worth taking the chance.

I've also added a second bet in this race tonight with Elegant Escape at 50/1. I thought he made a more than saticfactory chase debut at Chepstow recently but just lacked the pace of Mia's Storm at the finish. As an ex Point to Pointer he jumped really well. It's also worth noting they started him off at 23.5F suggesting he needs at least 3 miles and has bags of stamina. In Tizzard's RP stable tour last week:

We aimed him quite high last year and he ran a good race in the AB but he was over the top by Aintree. I was very pleased with him on his chasing debut and he does stay very well, so he could be one for the four-miler at the Cheltenham Festival. He'll probably run again at Cheltenham next month and he'll improve from his reappearance.

Jamie Codd rode the horse in his PTP (behind Samcro) and had this to say at the start of last season:

He was second to Colin Bowe's Samcro on debut and has since joined Colin Tizzard, and I think this lad could be really nice.
He was beaten a length on the day and he's a big baby, but he should do very well for Colin all being well..he'd definitely appreciate a big of nicer ground and once he strengthens up, he should make into a nice novice next year, before he could win a bumper. But, I wouldn't be hanging around too long in bumpers as he is a proper jumping horse

Jamie Codd will want to be on the best horse in the race but the fact he did ride the horse in his PTP and had good things to say means there is a chance he may end up linking up if Elegant Escape is one of the main contenders for the race. Although he has often teamed up with Gordon Elliott, he showed last year by choosing AGenieinabottle for Noel Meade that it's not a given. Unlike my concerns with Debece, i'm also confident that Tizzard could persuade one of the top jockeys to get the ride, particularly with his stock being a a career high these last few years. Derek O'Connor famously switched to Minella Rocco but he had initially agreed to ride Native River.

And speaking of Native River - it's worth noting just how similar a path Elegant Escape's career so far has mirrored the Hennessy and Welsh National winner's novice hurdle campaign. Both one a couple of novice hurdles, then stepped markedly up in the Challow Hurdle and Albert Bartlett. (Both disappointed in these 2 races) Like Native River, Elegant Escape started his chasing career off at Chepstow and particularly after Colin Tizzards recent comments it looks likely he could follow NR and line up in the 4 Miler.

Before the Chepstow run Joe Tizzard (before Colin's comments in the RP stable tour) had some good words on him saying he's one of their top novice chasers and that he's summered well and grown into his body:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Joe Tizzard says Elegant Escape is one of their top novice chasers! He runs today in the 2:15 at Chepstow. <a href="https://t.co/zzTxtewZKx">pic.twitter.com/zzTxtewZKx</a></p>&mdash; Coral (@Coral) <a href="https://twitter.com/Coral/status/919470415243722752?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 15, 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Plenty to like for me and at 50/1 (with William Hill) is well worth getting involved now. He will run again at the November meeting.

I'm half tempted to add Fagan in at 25's as well as it looks an almost certain target now, and even if Codd wasn't to team up with Elliott again, Lisa O'Neill could very well take up the ride and she proved her talent in big field chases when winning this race with Tiger Roll last year along with 2 Kerry National successes. That said, I cannot really see the price altering too much now so i'm in no rush to get involved there.

Nearer the time I will 100% be adding the horse(s) with the highest OR such as their fantastic record over the last 7 years.

It seems Derek O'Connor has solidified his spot as JP's rider in the festival amateur races over the last few years so that will also be something I look to target but again will wait until things become a little clearer. A couple of early JP horses of interest though - I brought him up in the RSA thread after David Jennings gave him a glowing mention but I actually think No Comment could be ideal for this race particularly after his two big field second place finishes at Aintree and Punchestown. He's not entered up in the market yet but depending on how his chase debut goes, I may ask to get him added in. Free Expression, Jerrysback and even Sutton Place are others.

My bets in this race so far:

Debece 0.5pts EW 40/1
Elegant Escape 0.5pts EW 50/1

[ComplyOrDie]

Not a race I'm particularly interested in from a betting angle currently but Jono, You certainly put a good case forward. May have a nibble at 50's, would hate to miss out on such a price for a horse that is thought well of at home (just re-watched the Tizzard interview), from a particularly strong yard.

On the other side, Debeca doesn't interest me in the slightest. I'm not sure what profile we should be looking at in terms of the winner, as I haven't had a look into it too much, but as much as of an achievement it was for Tim Vaughan to finally have a Cheltenham winner, that is one thing, it's completely trying to achieve a festival winner!

As much as I respect the trainer in the NH scene I do feel he generally lacks big winners. I don't see that changing any time soon.

[Kevloaf]

I think the parallel between Native River and Elegant Escape, coupled with the comments mean you've found a VERY likely shortner in the market there jono. I don't need much convincing at 50/1 but that is a very strong and well thought out case and I have followed you in with 0.5 pts each way.... I could easily see that increasing before he runs again though

[Geordieboy83]

If you have an android phone I'd recommend getting the Pocket Cast app. It costs a couple of quid but is well with the money.

No mate got an iPhone

[ComplyOrDie]

Jamie Codd rode the horse in his PTP (behind Samcro) and had this to say at the start of last season:



Jamie Codd will want to be on the best horse in the race but the fact he did ride the horse in his PTP and had good things to say means there is a chance he may end up linking up if Elegant Escape is one of the main contenders for the race. Although he has often teamed up with Gordon Elliott, he showed last year by choosing AGenieinabottle for Noel Meade that it's not a given. Unlike my concerns with Debece, i'm also confident that Tizzard could persuade one of the top jockeys to get the ride, particularly with his stock being a a career high these last few years. Derek O'Connor famously switched to Minella Rocco but he had initially agreed to ride Native River.

Worst case I think we end up with Michael Legg on board, who seems to ride quite a few for the Tizzards and isn't the worst jockey to have on board, albeit he is no Codd or O'Connor.

[jono]

Worst case I think we end up with Michael Legg on board, who seems to ride quite a few for the Tizzards and isn't the worst jockey to have on board, albeit he is no Codd or O'Connor.

Yeah Legg rode Native River in the race to finish second so I wouldn't be too downbeat if that's the case. Now she is back riding I assume we can add Nina Carberry back into the mix as well this year EE and Mia's storm pulled 11 lengths clear of the rest of the field that day. I think Mia's Storm could be solid chaser and Mr Mix who was third that day has since gone onto win as well.

On Debece - don't get me wrong I don't actually think now just because Vaughan has got a winner it improves the horses chances (or any of his others at the festival). I do think however it may well change his thinking if he was to have to weigh up between say this race and the RSA. I do like the horse though, I think he showed plenty of promise last year though and showed he handled the course. I expect and his pedigree suggest long stamina sapping trips to be his forte so I 4 miles round Cheltenham I think could suit very well.

BUT My main criteria for the race over the last few years has been jockey bookings and the horse(s) with the highest OR and In truth Debece will likely have neither. Of the two, particularly as he is the bigger price at 50/1 I think Elegant Escape is far more appealing.