JLT Novices 2018

[Scooby91]

Bit of a blow that. JLT is a bit of a conundrum now, I like Al Boum Photo but not sure ends up here. I still can’t have Willoughby Court for win purposes, no idea why as I fancied him at the start of the season and the race is looking easier now than it was then

I cant have willoughby court either for the win and im on at 16s. If the storyteller goes here and he's 25s 33s I'll have a fair bet on him ew. Looks a weak enough race alright. I can't even see the field who will run tbh.

[Robbante]

I actually agree he'd go close. It's a silly decision when this race is so open and you've got benatar there who you gave weight to with a live solid chance.

What’s the latest with Modus, is this still the target? That beating of Kalondra earlier in the season looks a lot better now

[Scooby91]

What’s the latest with Modus, is this still the target? That beating of Kalondra earlier in the season looks a lot better now

No idea tbh. But there a few like that you can give a chance to. Extremely open race.

[Kevloaf]

Flogas novice chase entries will be interesting.

logas Novice Chase (Grade 1) (7)

Bon Papa
Invitation Only
Koshari
Livelovelaugh
Rathvinden

[Scooby91]

logas Novice Chase (Grade 1) (7)

Bon Papa
Invitation Only
Koshari
Livelovelaugh
Rathvinden

Im suprised no alboum photo hopefully hes ok after his fall.
Only invitation only and rathvinden there who have higher graded chances.

[Robbante]

Im suprised no alboum photo hopefully hes ok after his fall.
Only invitation only and rathvinden there who have higher graded chances.

Al Boum goes to Leopardstown apparently coming from today

[jono]

logas Novice Chase (Grade 1) (7)

Bon Papa
Invitation Only
Koshari
Livelovelaugh
Rathvinden

Al Boum Photo is in I think. The article I posted in the Supreme thread looks to have a few mistakes. This might be more accurate...

[Kevloaf]

Well I feel 10 times better than 5 minutes ago!

Al Boum to the JLT is more important than I thought

[jono]

I was always under the impression the Flogas was often used as a prep race for Willies main RSA hope, though there was been a couple of JLT runners in the last few years in VL and Outlander. Will be interesting to see who lines up on the day

2017
Blue et Rouge (4th)
Bellshill (F) - RSA

2016
Outlander (1st) -JLT
Pont Alexandre (3rd) - 4 Miler
McKinley (6th) - Close Brothers Novice Chase

2015
Valseur Lido (2nd) - JLT
Adriana Des Mottes (3rd) - RSA
Jarry D'honneur (UR)

2014
Balleycasey (1st) - RSA

2013
Boston Bob (1st) - RSA

[Scooby91]

Guessing what gordons got for the flogas.

Sutton place
The storyteller.
Shattered love
Jury duty
Tombstone.

Then you've got
Snow falcon
And then your down to giggi the likes of Sutton manor...... etc....

[Kevloaf]

I was just hoping nothing weas wrong with Al Boum, not that he goes for the Flogas...

Invitaiton Only would be most likely/hopeful!

BostonBobn and Bellshill, the only two Wylie owned have gone RSA (which is almost completely irrelevant) but I am sure CCM doesn't mind either

[Middle_Of_March]

Another horse to take out of the JLT market:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Bamako unlikely to be seen before seasons end Matt, picked up an injury.<br>cc <a href="https://twitter.com/LydiaHislop?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@LydiaHislop</a></p>— Joe Chambers (@chambers2_joe) <a href="https://twitter.com/chambers2_joe/status/953014380689612800?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 15, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

That’s a blow for me antepost. Had him at big prices for this.

[jono]

Henry de Bromhead with a positive update on Monalee today. Plans still fluid but if he was to run here and win you'd have to feel like the JLT would be very tempting?

I'm sure Davy Russell will also be doing his best to try and get both Monalee here and Presenting Percy in the RSA

Henry de Bromhead will be hoping Monalee can put in a clear round in the Flogas Novice Chase at Leopardstown.

The seven-year-old fell on his most recent start at the Foxrock circuit, but could bid to atone in the February 4 contest.

De Bromhead said: “He schooled this morning and jumped well. He had a horrific fall here at Christmas and then got a good kicking after that.”

He added: “We were worried about him for the first few days, but it was amazing how he really seems to have come back to himself.

“We haven’t really made any plans as to where we will run him as yet. He’s obviously entered at Leopardstown and there are a couple of other options. We just need to make sure that we have him 100 per cent right.”

[Kevloaf]

Henry de Bromhead with a positive update on Monalee today. Plans still fluid but if he was to run here and win you'd have to feel like the JLT would be very tempting?

I'm sure Davy Russell will also be doing his best to try and get both Monalee here and Presenting Percy in the RSA

I like the Davy Double..... 54/1 NRNB or 127.5/1 for Presenting Percy(RSA)/Monalee(JLT)

[Kevloaf]

Andy Holding looks forward to March and the JLT Novices chase, won by Yorkhill last year.

The introduction of the non-runner no-bet offer with some firms for the Cheltenham Festival has been widely applauded by many, but at the same time, those seeking to gain an early advantage will have to pay a hefty premium by being asked to take a much reduced price on their fancies for the four-day showpiece. Despite bookmakers suggesting they’ve been knocked over in the rush (surely they’ve only taken Mickey Mouse bets), in most cases, there isn’t too much value to be had, so unless you can spot something that might run in a certain race and there isn’t a massive discrepancy, the incentive levels to bet at this stage are quite low. Some of the better betting races at the Festival, therefore, come in the shape of some of the novice events where virtually anything with four legs in training has been given a quote.

The JLT Novices’ Chase, for instance isn’t a bad race to have a peruse over with still two months or so to go, and given that most of the top twenty horses in most bookmakers’ lists are more likely to take up other engagements, it’s worth taking a look to see whether some value can be gleaned further down the page. Footpad is virtually certain to run in the Arkle, along with North Hill Harvey, Yanworth is likely to stepped up in trip, while Finian’s Oscar is going back over hurdles. On top of that, Monalee shapes more like a RSA horse, Sutton Place will more than likely to kept on home soil and the trio of Petite Mouchoir, Sceaux Royal and Brian Power all have too much speed to be considered for a step up in distance just yet.
As you can see, other than Willoughby Court (ran well despite stable being out of form at Cheltenham last time out) and to a lesser degree Invitation Only (impressive on his last two starts but connections uncommitted to his ideal trip), many of the highly-rated and well-known young chasers with solid form are likely to miss the gig so it could be worth looking at a horse such as BAMAKO MORIVIERE (best price 22-1 non-runner no bet) who has rather flown under the radar while arguably holding some of the best form over the 2m 4f trip in Ireland.

Willie Mullins’ charge made a somewhat inauspicious start to his chasing career, but on the evidence of his last two starts in particular, he seems to have really turned the corner. Picking himself off the canvas after a fall when well clear at the Listowel Festival back in September, the Califet gelding proved too strong for the highly-talented Tombstone in a quality beginners chase at Fairyhouse next time out, and with Gordon Elliot’s defeated inmate going on to boost the form with a victory in a Grade 3 at Navan subsequently, the pieces to his puzzle were already beginning to show. However, it’s his next and latest performance which really stands out, when he lowered the colours of a stellar field at Cork in spectacular fashion. Upped in trip for the first time over fences, the seven-year-old got into a lovely jumping rhythm from the front at the Mallow venue and having looked vulnerable when his rivals closed him down rounding the home turn, he shot clear in the straight to win by 16 lengths. Since then, the runner-up, Jury Duty, has gone on to land a Grade 2 and finished runner-up to stable mate Shattered Love in Grade 1 at Leopardstown, the third, Woodland Opera, won a Grade 2 at Punchestown next time, while the fifth home, Icantsay, trounced a field of handicappers by 10 lengths at Navan next time out.

Yet to be seen out since, interestingly, he hasn’t been entered up in either the big two novice races at Leopardstown’s February fixture, but that could be seen as a positive in the sense he’s maybe being saved for a Spring campaign on better ground. It could also mean that he’s on the easy list for the time being, but either way, he remains a very interesting runner whenever he returns given his overall form and speed figures he’s already posted. Whatever his fate, he has to be worth a small each-way risk at 22-1 for the 2m 4f race with the non-runner no-bet proviso in place (only top price 25-1 with the concession), in the hope that he does turn up in March.
Bamako Moriviere
JLT Novices Chase
0.5pts E/W
25/1