Supreme Novices 2018

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Bloody hell Kev, didn't realise that adopting your first race strategy from last year was going to mean backing 20 horses....haha!!

All joking aside I think I backed 6 non-runners (around 11 points in total) and in the process of covering at least the first 9 in the betting and if one of those win I'm calculating a minimum profit of 3 points ... Thank God for these first race free bets!

[AnFiieLD.]

Any news on where Duc De Genevres goes guys?

Very much hoping the AB, but owner has Chef Des Obeaux in there too, so possibly Ballymore.

[kinloch brae]

If there was one horse I wanted the ground to dry out for it would have been Paloma Blue. On the usual first day ground I was pretty hopeful he could have won this but on the very likely soft I doubt he will better than fifth or sixth. I hope I am wrong. Consequently, I have used the Sky offer to back Minds Eye. He got a shocking ride last time and I would definitely put a line through that. I am not sure that his previous handicap form in big fields is a million miles away. Similarly, to Paloma Blue a strong pace would help and soft ground should be a positive rather than a problem. Hopefully, they will book a jock able to switch him off, perhaps someone in the O'Regan style?

Bit of totally wasted analysis. Hard to believe they actually thought Trainwreck was a better option. Really difficult to now know what to do with the free bet. I don't like the top of the market and there is absolutely nothing at big prices. It is probably going to be a wasted bet on Paloma Blue although it is not hard to see him paddling up the hill. That said he won't be the only one.

[taylorch1990]

Had a good look through the race now the entries are out and ended up thinking western Ryder is too big a price at 40-1. If you can forgive his Sandown run then he has winning form over Summerville boy (on what I believe will be similar ground to Tuesday) who is 10-1 and his last run behind behind vinndication he finished further in front of dell oro than first flow did and he's 10-1 as well. He's shown he likes Cheltenham and I've talked myself into a couple of points ew at 40-1.

[Unhomme]

Had a good look through the race now the entries are out and ended up thinking western Ryder is too big a price at 40-1. If you can forgive his Sandown run then he has winning form over Summerville boy (on what I believe will be similar ground to Tuesday) who is 10-1 and his last run behind behind vinndication he finished further in front of dell oro than first flow did and he's 10-1 as well. He's shown he likes Cheltenham and I've talked myself into a couple of points ew at 40-1.

I agree - one of my Tuesday Betting Competion bets - definitely over priced

[Kevloaf]

My biggest winner in this is Slate House

Since If The Cap Fits came out I've just gone a bit "damage limitation".

Getabird still a decent winner and plan (as archie is keen on) ... is to take advtangfe of any offers and boosts for Getabird in the morning. Anything 5/2 or bigger I imagine I'll be taking.

I won't be able to "go green" in this race, due to 23 pts in non runners... but I'll be getting my money back regardless and should have a generous amount of "free bets" back...

[charlie]

My biggest winner in this is Slate House

Since If The Cap Fits came out I've just gone a bit "damage limitation".

Getabird still a decent winner and plan (as archie is keen on) ... is to take advtangfe of any offers and boosts for Getabird in the morning. Anything 5/2 or bigger I imagine I'll be taking.

I won't be able to "go green" in this race, due to 23 pts in non runners... but I'll be getting my money back regardless and should have a generous amount of "free bets" back...

Me too re slate house, followed by Debuchet then Western Ryder

[SH1591]

How certain are we that getabird will drift and to what price? 2/1, 9/4?

[Sirbetalot]

How certain are we that getabird will drift and to what price? 2/1, 9/4?

Bookies always offer specials on the first race, I can see 5/2 or 11/4 as the bookies try to beat each other to get your money..

[Kevloaf]

How certain are we that getabird will drift and to what price? 2/1, 9/4?

I'd be certain he'd get to that price at least (9/4)..... HOWEVER it does depend on what kind of stakes you're looking at and what bookies you bet with, as some will just be very small.

The exchanges are pushing 2/1 now though so looks likely...

[PitLad]

I think MENGLI KHAN will go very close, 1st time tongue tie as well

[Kevloaf]

I think MENGLI KHAN will go very close, 1st time tongue tie as well

Soft ground a bit of a turn off?

He was my selection each way on better ground...

[SH1591]

I think MENGLI KHAN will go very close, 1st time tongue tie as well

I think he’s a great price, 9L to find on getabird but was conceding weight, couple mistakes at fences, was behind at the start also

[ryanh97]

The wetter the ground has got the more confident i've got on Getabird

[Sirbetalot]

The wetter the ground has got the more confident i've got on Getabird

They was talking about him for the Ballymore, so I agree as I think a lot of the other horses are just two miles & the ground is playing into Getabirds hand.. One in the hand is better than two in the bush