Supreme Novices 2018

[opatcho]

Kalashnikov one of the LAYS of the festival.

He’s has great place claims

[doctorwu]

He’s has great place claims

Not in my book. he'll get run off his feet Imo.

[TimRiggins]

Not in my book. he'll get run off his feet Imo.

Hoping that they'll think that, and run him in the Ballymore.

At least get a run for my 1/2pt investment

[The Beast]

Not in my book. he'll get run off his feet Imo.

agree , the bullets wont be fired on run in , he needs a trip or very heavy ground at 2m.

[SeanRock]

Not in my book. he'll get run off his feet Imo.

100%...He had to be niggled along for almost the entire race last week and that was a handicap, he won't have the pace for the Supreme.

[opatcho]

Have you seen what’s in this years supreme?

You gone on like we’re about to see a repeat of 2016 renewal where legends willl be born!

[Sirbetalot]

Have you seen what’s in this years supreme?

You gone on like we’re about to see a repeat of 2016 renewal where legends willl be born!

Only one hopefully, Getabird will be around for awhile...

[charlie]

I have been struggling with this race for a while so I decided to look at some of the key stats and the market principals (excluding Samcro):

1. Won 50% of hurdle starts
2. Run the same calendar year
3. 5 or more runs
4. Graded form
5. Run at Cheltenham before
6. Deloitte/Tolworth/Royal Bond form
7. Ex bumper horses placed in G1 or G2 company
8. Won in fields of at least 14 runners
9. 5 or 6 years old

Scores out of 9:

Next Destination: 8 (14/1 NRNB)
Mengli Khan: 7 (14/1 NRNB)
Kalashnikov: 7 (6/1 NRNB)
Claimantakinforgan: 7 (16/1 NRNB)
Debuchet: 7 (50/1 NRNB)

I cannot back Kalashnikov. That was a tough race last week and I think it may have left a mark.

I have added the above in bold. I really like Next Destination for this, despite him looking Ballymore bound. Supreme is as much a test of stamina as it is speed and I think he looks a solid NRNB option

[ziggym]

I've dived in with Kalashnikov, as I thought it was that impressive and I believe the trainer re: ground, but fully realise that covers will be needed. Going to stay away from Getabird, think he stole his last race at the start, so covers nearer the festival, Don't really see anything special this year.

[opatcho]

I’ve been through the stats and trends plenty of times for his race. So much so, I’ve threw them out of the window

I’m going with the good old ‘Mullins and Henderson’ rule this race.

Getabird would have followed Champagne Fevers route here if he wasn’t injured prior to last years bumler
Again, I’m sitting in a good position AP wise with other but I think this is a poor renewal, and Mullins doesn’t need to have a Douvan or Vautour to win this. Getabird most likely winner

[opatcho]

.... and yes, I’ve been and forth with my thoughts on this race.

[ziggym]

I’ve been through the stats and trends plenty of times for his race. So much so, I’ve threw them out of the window

I’m going with the good old ‘Mullins and Henderson’ rule this race.

Getabird would have followed Champagne Fevers route here if he wasn’t injured prior to last years bumler
Again, I’m sitting in a good position AP wise with other but I think this is a poor renewal, and Mullins doesn’t need to have a Douvan or Vautour to win this. Getabird most likely winner

Well, we agree its poor. Will no doubt have a double cover on the fav after a few cold ones in the centaur. Just cant get an angle on this race.

[opatcho]

Agreed, not able to get much of an angle

[charlie]

Completely agree with others that this is a hard race to get much of an angle on, that's why I am looking at the stats.

[charlie]

ITCF has trained with the Supreme in mind all season and has beaten what was put in front of him convincingly whilst showing a nice turn of foot. I would have liked to see him up in class possibly the once but Harry Fry and Noel Fehily have both come out and said he doesn’t take a lot of hard racing well yet and by there own admission he was slightly over when he finished 4th im the Aintree bumper last year. Your taking a chance that Fry will have him 100% on the day but he knows the horse best so I’m inclined to trust him. As FM said Frys recent poor form is a worry but there’s still four weeks for him to get firing.

I would be careful with ITCF. He has not beaten much, not run this year, has no graded form, never run at Cheltenham, never won in a field of 14+. Easy to dismiss IMO.