Supreme Novices 2018

[Birds Nest]

This is the Dams side..

Dun Dun is out of the Be My Native mare Frankly Native, a half-sister to the fine chaser Sound Man, winner of two Tingle Creek trophies and placed behind Klairon Davies in the Arkle and Queen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham.

[Folski]

This is the Dams side..

Dun Dun is out of the Be My Native mare Frankly Native, a half-sister to the fine chaser Sound Man, winner of two Tingle Creek trophies and placed behind Klairon Davies in the Arkle and Queen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham.

I see it now. That being said I think Samcro will be RSA next year not Arkle.

[Robbante]

We're over-thinking this. Gordon doesn't want to face Getabird and Getabird goes here and wins by 5l.

Samcro goes Ballymore and wins by 5l. That in no way points to his trip next season.

You can still get 4/1 the double nrnb and bog.

Fair shout, by far the most likely scenario still

[Kevloaf]

What makes you think Samcro's future is over those trips, when Elliot bought him it was a departure from their usual types. Samcro is breed for 2miles, i fully expect him to be contesting the champion hurdle or Arkle next year. Half brother to Faugheen, Dam side Family littered with 2mile chasers, i even think theres a tingle creek winner in that lot too....And i wouldnt be suprised to see a late switch to this race either...Just like ND going Bartlett, most of us dont look to closely at blood lines but owners and trainers do..Just an opinion of course and i could be completely wide of the mark..

You fully expect Samcro to be in the CH or Arkle?

It's been made 100% clear by the owner, O'Leary that he is going over fences with a view to being a Gold Cup horse.

The Arkle is the least likely of the novice chases too ...

I'm not saying he couldn't run in those races but you'll be wasting time considering.

I haven't got the exact quote but it was something like:

Today was impressive because he's a big chasing type. He'll be going over fences next year because we aren't interested in champion hurdles "

It was quite dismissive. He'd have to completely fail as a novice chaser for it to be a factor?

IMO there is absolute proof that the owners will make that decision and their intentions are clear and backed up in history

[Kevloaf]

We're over-thinking this. Gordon doesn't want to face Getabird and Getabird goes here and wins by 5l.

Samcro goes Ballymore and wins by 5l. That in no way points to his trip next season.

You can still get 4/1 the double nrnb and bog.

You can add Mullins doesn't want to gave Samcro too and its the same result

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Looks like Kalshnikov is heading clear seciond fav for this but has generated very little enthusiasm on this forum. Has anyone backed him or think he has a decent chance of winning this? I know it would be an unconventional route coming via a handicap. And if you fancy him does that bring in Summerville Boy? Neither are on my (long) list of Supreme bets and don't intend on adding either but interested to know people's thoughts all the same.

[SeanRock]

Looks like Kalshnikov is heading clear seciond fav for this but has generated very little enthusiasm on this forum. Has anyone backed him or think he has a decent chance of winning this? I know it would be an unconventional route coming via a handicap. And if you fancy him does that bring in Summerville Boy? Neither are on my (long) list of Supreme bets and don't intend on adding either but interested to know people's thoughts all the same.

Kalashnikov has had two very hard runs on his last two starts, it would be some training performance to get him 100% for Cheltenham. I was on him at Newbury and have followed him this season but I think the Betfair Hurdle was his main aim and Cheltenham is a slight afterthought due to his good run.

Summerville Boy seemed to relish the slog in heavy ground in the Tolworth and previously got outpaced at Cheltenham by Lalor & Western Ryder which doesn’t seem the strongest of form lines now despite his Tolworth win. I’ll be overlooking them (rightly or wrongly) in the Supreme and will be sticking with my one selection for the race ITCF e/w.

[opatcho]

That race at Cheltenham was a farce, ended up being a sprint so I wouldn’t take too much attention on that run

[SeanRock]

That race at Cheltenham was a farce, ended up being a sprint so I wouldn’t take too much attention on that run

If he was quick enough to win the Supreme he’d have won that race regardless.

[Cashew King]

If he was quick enough to win the Supreme he’d have won that race regardless.

Whilst I’m not advocating Summerville Boy as the most likely winner, I’m not sure how you dismiss a Grade 1 winner, where the runner up has just won the richest handicap hurdle to frank the form, in favour of ITCF who’s less than half the price and has won a class 4 at odds on & a class 2 on a right handed flat track & nothings come out of the race & won since?

Purely on value you’d have to have a look at Summerville - don’t forget Fehily lost his iron at the last at Sandown & also said it hated the soft ground - like I say, not the most likely winner but must have a place chance & currently 2 or 3 times the odds of ITCF & Kalashnikov.

[SeanRock]

I just personally doubt Summerville Boy has the speed to win the Supreme. I’m not saying it’s wise to hammer into ITCF’s at current prices. I’m on at 33’s and may have another nibble if Sky do there usual offer on the opening races of the day this year.

[opatcho]

That race at Cheltenham was a farce, ended up being a sprint so I wouldn’t take too much attention on that run

Take a look at Altiors race at Cheltenham when he was a novice hurdler, was in the October or November’s meeting.
He’s the quickest novice I’ve seen for a long time, he just got home that day ahead of Maputo after going off slow

Just saying...

[SeanRock]

Summerville Boy was outpaced by Mr. One More & Slate House earlier in the season. They haven’t exactly been pulling up trees on recent runs.

He’s not a bad shout for a place at current odds but personally I don’t fancy him to win.

[opatcho]

Chao, I’m on IFTC at 80.6..... would be more than happy to see him bowl in but it’s concerning he hasn’t race in a graded race this season

At least Summerville has proven himself. Funnily, he’s a horse I haven’t back. My point is, don’t discount grade 1/2 horses so quickly.

[Cashew King]

Summerville Boy was outpaced by Mr. One More & Slate House earlier in the season. They haven’t exactly been pulling up trees on recent runs.

He’s not a bad shout for a place at current odds but personally I don’t fancy him to win.

Fair do’s - it would be a dull world if we all had the same opinion - all I’d say is don’t let that one run( when everything went wrong cloud your judgement) - this was the post race thoughts of Fehily as printed in the racing post:

“A race with a rich Grade 1 history produced one of its bigger upsets when the outsider of the five runners Summerville Boy revelled in being given a championship pace to aim at over Sandown's tough two miles.

The sponsors' 20-1 with a non-runner no bet concession for the Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle might be popular after winning rider Noel Fehily reported the six-year-old hated the heavy ground while showing his last race form all wrong.

"They crawled round last time and you can forget that race," said Fehily after debriefing winning owner Roger Brookhouse and Sophie George, wife of winning trainer Tom George.

"You will see a better horse on better ground and if it is good ground at Cheltenham possibly the Ballymore might suit more but he has plenty of speed."

"He will be twice the horse next year – he is still very babyish," added Fehily, who lost an iron momentarily as Summerville Boy stuttered over the last to give Kalashnikov a glimmer of hope in what had looked a vain chase up the straight.

Winning connections were thankful to Mont Des Avaloirs for setting the sort of pace you expect in the cauldron of Cheltenham in March and the Paul Nicholls runner deserves credit for taking an albeit distant third as favourite Western Ryder got bogged down in the home straight.”