Supreme Novices 2018

[Scooby91]

I don't really want to be repeating what a pundit has said but the second behind Samcro picked up the pieces and I think there is every chance that form could be reversed in the Supreme. I also think that form is well above anything that If The Cap Fits has done. I think on achievement If The Cap Fits is a shocking price.

There's nothing in the book to suggest that Next Destination wants either better ground or the minimum trip. He was outpaced on better ground. At least Paloma Blue has some form at the trip and appears progressive. I wouldn't be confident that Getabird is the second coming but I would love to see him replaced by Next Destination.

You do realise next destination and paloma blue have met this season over 2 miles?

Next destination travelled well flatenned the last and flew away when he was asked for an effort with a change of gear. And the quotes before the race were he has to start somewhere and he'd come on for the run. Since then hes ran at the top grade against the best opposition around. Samcro diddnt make his last start. He can't help that.

[Scooby91]

Really?

100% win record over hurdles, I'm unsure what else he could have done.

If trained by Mullins or even Henderson he would be clear favourite right now, so the price is pretty generous, and I do think he'll be a player, whether or not he wins is another thing, personally I think he'll find at least one too good, but he's a place certainty for me.

You also have to take into account the falters of the other contenders in the market, Mengli Khan has been beat twice in a row now, Claimintakinforgan got turned over at odds on at the weekend, Laurina should be in the Mares' Novice, but I'd back her big time IF she turned up here, Paloma Blue, as progressive as you may think he is he has still only won 1 maiden on a racecourse, Next Destination is about the only one who could potentially turn up here and be good enough to beat the 2 at the head of the betting IMO, but unlike Scooby I think he will go over further myself.

I think bally more ND, but I'm prepared for all angles. Its nrnb.

[kinloch brae]

Really?

100% win record over hurdles, I'm unsure what else he could have done.

If trained by Mullins or even Henderson he would be clear favourite right now, so the price is pretty generous, and I do think he'll be a player, whether or not he wins is another thing, personally I think he'll find at least one too good, but he's a place certainty for me.

You also have to take into account the falters of the other contenders in the market, Mengli Khan has been beat twice in a row now, Claimintakinforgan got turned over at odds on at the weekend, Laurina should be in the Mares' Novice, but I'd back her big time IF she turned up here, Paloma Blue, as progressive as you may think he is he has still only won 1 maiden on a racecourse, Next Destination is about the only one who could potentially turn up here and be good enough to beat the 2 at the head of the betting IMO, but unlike Scooby I think he will go over further myself.

If The Cap Fits has just been nursed along, beating up inferior opposition on flat tracks. The only time he has stepped up in class he was well beaten. The Supreme will be an absolute sea change. At the moment his form isn't good enough and there is no telling how he will adapt. He is no value.

[kinloch brae]

You do realise next destination and paloma blue have met this season over 2 miles?

Next destination travelled well flatenned the last and flew away when he was asked for an effort with a change of gear. And the quotes before the race were he has to start somewhere and he'd come on for the run. Since then hes ran at the top grade against the best opposition around. Samcro diddnt make his last start. He can't help that.

When did that happen?

The only meeting I have is over two miles three furlongs on a stiff track. Although he was well beaten I think the most telling point going forward is that Paloma Blue went off 7/4 favourite. There is no doubt Paloma Blue was disappointing early in the season but his last run represents significant improvement and there is a fair chance of more to come.

[Scooby91]

When did that happen?

The only meeting I have is over two miles three furlongs on a stiff track. Although he was well beaten I think the most telling point going forward is that Paloma Blue went off 7/4 favourite. There is no doubt Paloma Blue was disappointing early in the season but his last run represents significant improvement and there is a fair chance of more to come.

Apologies was 2m3. They went off priced on bumper form and willie stating he'd come on plenty for the run and it was very much a starting point.
I dont see it being a different result over 2 on that day. . However I can't really say that as a fact.
And ND looks alot sharper to me, for the run .


11Nov17 Naa*19f Soft to Heavy 5y+ MdnHdl(13K)

11-12[7/4F]bf3rd of 12,*13.75L behind Next Destination

D N Russell

Paloma blue
tracked leaders in 3rd, mistakes, mistake 4 out and dropped to 4th, ridden in 5th 2 out, 4th at last, kept on same pace in 3rd inside final furlong.









Next Destination (IRE)*5, b g 11-12*(Malcolm C Denmark)*
(5:06.7*7.72 secs slower*on today's going*)*
Dubai Destination (USA)*- Liss Alainn (IRE)(Flemensfirth (USA))*
Breeder - Niall Flynn

(Morning price: 7/4*2/1*5/2*3/1*7/2)*
(Ring price: 9/2*4/1)*SP 4/1

W P Mullins

P Townend


tracked leaders in 5th, closer 4th on outer 2 out, pushed along to lead approaching last, ridden and stayed on strongly run-in, easily, impressiv

[Birds Nest]

ND out of Dubai Destination and Dam side littered with staying Hurdlers screams 2.5m+ to me

Just a footnote guys...Lalor joint fav for the Betfair on Sat...Still 40-1 NRNB with the marvelous B365 for the Supreme.
Any takers?

[charlie]

ND out of Dubai Destination and Dam side littered with staying Hurdlers screams 2.5m+ to me

Just a footnote guys...Lalor joint fav for the Betfair on Sat...Still 40-1 NRNB with the marvelous B365 for the Supreme.
Any takers?

Yes. Backed EW @ 50's wtih Hills (still available) & 90's on Betfair. Won the Grade 2 at Aintree beating plenty of horses ahead in the supreme market (Claimantakinforgan, If The Cap Fits). Ran well behind Western Ryder to finish 2nd over C&D. I haven't checked this but I think Betfair Hurdle winners have a terrible record in the Supreme.

[ComplyOrDie]

ND out of Dubai Destination and Dam side littered with staying Hurdlers screams 2.5m+ to me

Just a footnote guys...Lalor joint fav for the Betfair on Sat...Still 40-1 NRNB with the marvelous B365 for the Supreme.
Any takers?

I can pick holes in the form of pretty much every race Lalor has run in (through other form) and therefore, even if he was treble them odds I wouldn't be interested.

I think the best horse from this side of the Irish Sea is ITCF. Claimintakinforgan was up there, before a deflated effort over the weekend, and he had the beating of a lot of challengers from here, through form lines, so, for me, I can't actually take our challengers too seriously as I think overall it's a pretty poor standard this year. I wouldn't be one bit surprised if the Irish have the 1-2-3 in this race.

[Scooby91]

ND out of Dubai Destination and Dam side littered with staying Hurdlers screams 2.5m+ to me

Just a footnote guys...Lalor joint fav for the Betfair on Sat...Still 40-1 NRNB with the marvelous B365 for the Supreme.
Any takers?

I take your point but I don't follow breeding strictly at all. I see each horse as an individual case.

Yorkhill being a presenting you'd think he wants 3 miles. But i was strictly against. Not because his breeding just the way he races and his exuberant style uses energy.
Up for review on breeding you'd think he wants top of the ground. But he actually wants deep heavy ground to be seen at his very best. As it best suits his action and he glides across it .

[Innoko]

The four-times champion trainer confirmed that Claimantakinforgan will appear in the Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle.

"I think the track and the ground all went against him (Claimantakinforgan). He is very slick over his hurdles, he just got lost around Musselburgh a bit.

"I 'm pretty sure he will still go for the Supreme."

[opatcho]

If The Cap Fits has just been nursed along, beating up inferior opposition on flat tracks. The only time he has stepped up in class he was well beaten. The Supreme will be an absolute sea change. At the moment his form isn't good enough and there is no telling how he will adapt. He is no value.

Well beaten? He came fourth, 2 lengths
Let’s not forget the likes of Altior and B-D’air was beaten in high grade bumpers

Agreed, I wanted to see ITCF win a graded race going into this, but that’s factored into the price on offer

Personally, I can see ITCF coming on from the run at Cheltenham and winning at Aintree

Wouldn’t agree with your “well beaten” statement

[kinloch brae]

Well beaten? He came fourth, 2 lengths
Let’s not forget the likes of Altior and B-D’air was beaten in high grade bumpers

Agreed, I wanted to see ITCF win a graded race going into this, but that’s factored into the price on offer

Personally, I can see ITCF coming on from the run at Cheltenham and winning at Aintree

Wouldn’t agree with your “well beaten” statement

When I said well beaten I wasn't specifically referring to the distance.

Fayonagh aside, I don't think the Festival and Aintree bumpers were what you might call vintage renewals.

[opatcho]

I’ve been back and forth on this race

AP wise, I’ve gone well to have IFTC still in contention at the prices. However, if I was examining the race now, I’m still not sure who my number 1 selection would be. Again, read my post festival notes from last year, in summary

- take Mullins main horse very seriously for a win
- take Henderson’s horses seriously for a place
- French type would be ideal if trained by Mullins
- grade 1-2 win
- won over 50 of their hurdle races

Now, I’ve been pretty much against Getabird for a while. Even took to Twitter multiple times and said he’d go the Ballymore based on Mullins usually sending his French flat horses here, and his PTP Irish horses to Ballymore

The only exception to this was champagne fever, he was a PTP Irish horse but unlike Mullins others CF had been campaigned over bumpers before taking to hurdles - and ran/won the festival bumper

I was watching back on Getabird race last night, only to be reminded that Getabird was entered for the festival bumper before being pulled out due to injury - I really should have done my homework

I’m keen on studying previous routes taken by trainers, and I should have picked up on this much earlier. With Samcro confirming his is a total beast, and with Sharjah flopping, I’m confident Getabird will come here - pains me to say this after being so c0cky saying he’ll go Ballymore

Now, the only other question I have to ask myself is.... does he win this. It’s a same I didn’t caught in earlier on the aboard otherwise I’d be sitting on a nice AP bet.

Lessons learnt

[Robbante]

I've learnt from previous mistakes and backed Djingle at 33s nrnb with Paddy for this. Absolute bet to nothing, he either romps in on Sunday and his price halves, or he doesn't impress, doesn't race in this and money back. He is 33s with most other bookies who don't offer nrnb so think Paddy have this wrong. For what it's worth to me his french form looks strong, and visually he looks to have a lot of pace so hoping Supreme might be the aim over the Ballymore

[ComplyOrDie]

It can't be long now, with less than 5 weeks to go that we start hearing about confirmed targets.

The reason I posted on here was that I had just noted both PP & BFSB cut Getabird today for this race, at the same moment in time, maybe something to note, on the other hand it may be absolutely nothing