Cheltenham 2018 Ante post bets

[Faugheen_Machine]

And also

Buveur D'Air 4/1
Cause of Causes 9/1

2pt 49/1 double.

Done this double as well.

These two are going to be the backbone to a lot of my bets for next year. Already got 3 pts Buveur D'air at 5/1 and 2 pts Cause of Causes at 10/1.

I think Buveur D'air will take some beating next season, still only 6 years old, lightly raced and plenty of improvement to come.

[Kevloaf]

20399/1 Super Yankee

Buveur D'air - CH 4/1
Cause of Causes - XC 9/1
Yanworth - JLT 10/1
Un De Sceaux - Ryanair 5/1
Nichols Canyon - Stayers - 6/1

Small chance that I get the Yanworth destination wrong, but I don't think so! Doesn't look a 2 mile chaser obviously and I don't see why they'd push him towards the RSA when the JLT is an option?... and of course UDS's target might not be correct, but I feel they'll have a better bullet to fire in the CC and the ground will always have some soft in on the Thursday now too so as the defending champion I think he is incredibly likely to turn up in that race.

[MrMcGoldrick]

Tried to get a decent bet on Yorkhill for next years Gold cup without spending much, placed an ew treble on
One for Arthur 14/1
Fletchers Flyer 14/1 Irish nash
Yorkhill 8/1 Gold cup
Looking great at the mo, will plan on how to spend me dosh, till FF falls at the second last, or he wins then 23 seconds later Wylie announces Yorkhill will be aimed at the stayers hurdle, que sera

[BigChaang]

Where do you think U.D.S will run Kev ? , if not in the Ryanair ., I would have thought it's 90% certain to run there,
unless subbing for Douvan in the ch. chs, But as someone said here , ( Ista ? ) , couldn't guess willie's runners in
march let alone Apr /may.

[MrMcGoldrick]

Where do you think U.D.S will run Kev ? , if not in the Ryanair ., I would have thought it's 90% certain to run there,
unless subbing for Douvan in the ch. chs, But as someone said here , ( Ista ? ) , couldn't guess willie's runners in
march let alone Apr /may.

Looks like the bookies are trying to steal punter cash, I've noticed UDS quoted in the Gold cup market, I don't think he'd stay that distance in the horse box

[MrMcGoldrick]

I'm going to look for horses with new targets next year, or horses new to the fez maybe, possibly ones that have run well there and are looking to go one better. So few actually defend a title successfully it seems like a reasonable idea to think a little outside the box, probably mix in a few champs, but concentrating on others may prove quite fruitful, better prices in the main too, anyone else looking to try this approach. This is mainly for AP multis, nothing major for me till much nearer the time

[Kevloaf]

Where do you think U.D.S will run Kev ? , if not in the Ryanair ., I would have thought it's 90% certain to run there,
unless subbing for Douvan in the ch. chs, But as someone said here , ( Ista ? ) , couldn't guess willie's runners in
march let alone Apr /may.

UDS - I'd think the Ryanair. I can only see that he'd go back in trip for the CC if it was soft ground OR Douvan/Min aren't going to turn up. I do think UDS would have won the CC this year and that would be more of a factor but I don't get the impression the owners are calling any of the shots. The only 'other' factor I could see is Ruby deciding Djakadam (or to a much lesser extent Yorkhill/Douvan) are 'good things' in the lead up. I don't think 5/1 is a massive price by any stretch, and I wouldn't back it as a single - but I think its a fairly confident target and a horse that is under rated because he was beaten twice by SS.

I am expecting Mullins to "bounce back" tremendously next year both in Ireland and at Chelt. 6 winners this year with the amount of injuries was spectacular and 'if it ain't broke....' - Bit harsh to say he needs to "bounce back" in fairness, but I'm sure you get my gist.

I appreciate what Ista and others say about the targets and Mullins and it is definitely a factor BUT it can be used to your advantage. He is a creature of habit moreso than the average trainer, and I don't think there was any 'last minute' switching this year either, every target was pretty well documented or not mentioned. Even as an example - Limini and VVM all the comments said they might take each other on and I (we) assumed it wouldn't happen. Let's Dance in the mares novice and her being better for a step up in trip is the most annoying 'switch' I can think of personally although he didn't ever mention a race for her other than the mares novice?

[Istabraq]

Kev

It doesn't have to be last minute switches, the fact every one of his has multilple entries and nothing gets confirmed until days before the race makes AP punting a lottery.
I agree it can be used to your advantage but when the likes of VVM had 6 entries at the five day dec stage, that is nothing more than a piss take and there should be rules to prevent that.
Just my take on it....

[archie]

It's the owners, not the AP punters, who pay the entry and forfeit fees. If they're happy (and they are) then AP punters, by definition people who should know better, have only themselves to blame.

[Istabraq]

It's the owners, not the AP punters, who pay the entry and forfeit fees. If they're happy (and they are) then AP punters, by definition people who should know better, have only themselves to blame.

Completely agree, though I believe the authorities should adopt rules that prevent multi entries (more than 2/3)...

[BigChaang]

I'd agree with you Kev, I think willie will be a force to be reckoned with next year , Melon , Min, yorkhill , douvan , nichols canyon
, Lets dance to name a few . Sadly, I don't think we will see Annie or Faugheen , But I'd be glad to be
wrong on that score. i wonder if Senewalk will be as good as expected ?.

[Kevloaf]

Kev

It doesn't have to be last minute switches, the fact every one of his has multilple entries and nothing gets confirmed until days before the race makes AP punting a lottery.
I agree it can be used to your advantage but when the likes of VVM had 6 entries at the five day dec stage, that is nothing more than a piss take and there should be rules to prevent that.
Just my take on it....

I wouldn't have a problem with the number on entries being limited, anything to make it easier would be a bonus... but I'm not unhappy at the moment. People say on the TV all the time that 'ante post racing is dead' and I just don't see it. Maybe it is because I didn't do it when it was easier, so to me it just seems like a great challenge.

[MrMcGoldrick]

Surprised Min isn't being quoted for the novice chase events, not much of a price where he is quoted either given his lack of experience.
Yorkhill is shortest in the Champ chase but I'm sure he'll go over further.
Will watch Melon with interest because he has chaser written all over him, but would like to see him jump a fence first.
I think isty is right though, it's a lottery at this point, will stick a few small doubles and trebles on to try to catch a few big prices

[Kevloaf]

Surprised Min isn't being quoted for the novice chase events, not much of a price where he is quoted either given his lack of experience.
Yorkhill is shortest in the Champ chase but I'm sure he'll go over further.
Will watch Melon with interest because he has chaser written all over him, but would like to see him jump a fence first.
I think isty is right though, it's a lottery at this point, will stick a few small doubles and trebles on to try to catch a few big prices

Min won't be a novice chaser next season as he has won a chase this season?

Melon is interesting, as Mullins said they bought him to be a future Champion Hurdler but he does look like he has the scope for a fence. Would certainly make you think they're leaning towards fences? 16/1 for the Arkle might be worth putting in speculatively?

[archie]

Completely agree, though I believe the authorities should adopt rules that prevent multi entries (more than 2/3)...

But why, Isty? You'd be telling the people who pay the money that they aren't allowed options. I can just about see it for 5 day entries but for early closers it would be totally wrong. Most of the Grade Ones at Cheltenham close before potential runners have had their prep race so to limit entries then would be a nonsense.
People who try to second guess Willie (or Gordon or the O'Learys for that matter) should be fully aware that, to give his owners the best chance, he doesn't make up his mind until the last minute so to whinge when an eleven month old bet doesn't get a run is just pointless. The Vautour incident was unfortunate but was very much a one off because of Ricci's well-intentioned but foolish comments.