Cheltenham 2018 Ante post bets

[Joleg]

Taken me the best part of 2 weeks (on and off) to read through the posts on the festival forum, fantastic reading and well done to all of you that have contributed. Having done so i have 1 or 2 questions-

With regard to the gold cup, i had a fairly strong opinion in the Autumn that this is where Coney Island would be targeted and backed accordingly. i also have bits on Our Duke and some each way on Disko, however, as time has moved on i cant see past Might Bite. i'm fairly sure there will be no last fence jitters and would ensure the race is run at a decent pace that would suit him

1. How much do you think the price will shorten if Might Bite does win the King George ? im not sure whether to lump on now, or whether to hold fire. i say that because if it doesnt win the KG the price surely will remain as is or even drift a point or two.

2. Has anyone heard if this is the target for Coney Island and if it is due soon?

I share everyones hurt regarding Annamix and had backed at nice prices along with Epicuris, Pym and Claimantakinforgan. I see and understand the love for Menghli Khan, it has won its races in fine fashion and done this impressively. However for some reason i cant bring myself to press the button on it and im not sure why! The horse deserves favourtism and i was wondering...

3 Has there ever been times when you know you should back a horse and for some unknown reason you just havent? or vice versa have there been times when you know you shouldnt back a horse but for some inexplicable reason you still did?

Keep up the good work guys and i look forward to joining in more

[Can't Catch Me]

Hi Joleg. Read this article about Coney Island on the RP website last night:

Coney Island will return to action in the Leopardstown Christmas Chase – formerly the Lexus – on December 28 with trainer Eddie Harty hoping he could emerge as a dark horse for the Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup.

The JP McManus-owned six-year-old has not been seen since chasing home Our Duke in the Grade 1 novice chase at Leopardstown last Christmas, as a badly bruised foot kept him out of the Cheltenham Festival, and he is priced between 16-1 and 33-1 for the Gold Cup.

Those fancy prices may appeal to some given he was a Grade 1-winning novice chaser, and the form of that Drinmore victory has worked out very well with Alpha Des Obeaux (now rated 157) and Road To Respect (now rated 163) back in third and fourth.

Harty said on Monday: "I know you've not seen Coney Island yet but I'm pleased to report everything is great with him and, touch wood, you'll see him again in what used to be the Lexus. That's the race we're aiming at.

"There's nothing really suitable before then and we've decided to give the John Durkan a miss in favour of waiting for Leopardstown. He missed the second half of last season with a bruised foot but is absolutely fine now and it was nothing too serious.

"He goes well fresh so I'm not worried about him having his first run back in a Grade 1."

On the prospect of Coney Island emerging as a Gold Cup contender, Harty said: "I certainly hope he can. You can't knock his form as a novice and I'm hoping we'll get a clearer run this season than we did last term. I've certainly not lost any faith in him."

Coney Island is 12-1 with Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook for the Leopardstown Christmas Chase. Yorkhill heads the betting at 5-2.

[SAMCRO]

I think the market is about right for the Gold Cup. The way Might Bite burned off the rest of the field in the RSA was unbelievable and he had plenty left at the end. Yorkhill has a natural high cruising speed who could keep up with might bite. If i was offering odds id be ducking might bite and yorkhill.

[Joleg]

Hi Joleg. Read this article about Coney Island on the RP website last night:

Coney Island will return to action in the Leopardstown Christmas Chase – formerly the Lexus – on December 28 with trainer Eddie Harty hoping he could emerge as a dark horse for the Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup.

The JP McManus-owned six-year-old has not been seen since chasing home Our Duke in the Grade 1 novice chase at Leopardstown last Christmas, as a badly bruised foot kept him out of the Cheltenham Festival, and he is priced between 16-1 and 33-1 for the Gold Cup.

Those fancy prices may appeal to some given he was a Grade 1-winning novice chaser, and the form of that Drinmore victory has worked out very well with Alpha Des Obeaux (now rated 157) and Road To Respect (now rated 163) back in third and fourth.

Harty said on Monday: "I know you've not seen Coney Island yet but I'm pleased to report everything is great with him and, touch wood, you'll see him again in what used to be the Lexus. That's the race we're aiming at.

"There's nothing really suitable before then and we've decided to give the John Durkan a miss in favour of waiting for Leopardstown. He missed the second half of last season with a bruised foot but is absolutely fine now and it was nothing too serious.

"He goes well fresh so I'm not worried about him having his first run back in a Grade 1."

On the prospect of Coney Island emerging as a Gold Cup contender, Harty said: "I certainly hope he can. You can't knock his form as a novice and I'm hoping we'll get a clearer run this season than we did last term. I've certainly not lost any faith in him."

Coney Island is 12-1 with Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook for the Leopardstown Christmas Chase. Yorkhill heads the betting at 5-2.

Interesting, it appears that racing over the christmas period may throw up plenty of answers ...............or questions!!

im on at 33's and was happy with that, but was getting concerned that i hadnt heard any news, thanks for the info

[Kevloaf]

Hi Joleg.

Question 1 .... I'd expect him to be around the price Thistlecrack was after he won it ... 5/2? I'd probably take the 10/1 on offer for him to win both of i was going to back Might Bite and wasn't invested already. Unless you'd prefer to just lump on now for the KG?

Question 2. Has been answered ... Good bet for Gold Cup I'd say at 33s

Question 3 ... I sometimes should take a price and don't always act but that's because of the way I punt ... which limits potential ways you manipulate the market .... if you don't back 'a lot' in an ante post book I'd not mind holding off and missing some prices because its hard enough on the day .... on the day of Mengli Kahn was 2/1 buy he was still unbeaten you could argue that's a better bet than 7/1 now .... guess it depends how you bet imo

[darlojim]

Taken me the best part of 2 weeks (on and off) to read through the posts on the festival forum, fantastic reading and well done to all of you that have contributed. Having done so i have 1 or 2 questions-

With regard to the gold cup, i had a fairly strong opinion in the Autumn that this is where Coney Island would be targeted and backed accordingly. i also have bits on Our Duke and some each way on Disko, however, as time has moved on i cant see past Might Bite. i'm fairly sure there will be no last fence jitters and would ensure the race is run at a decent pace that would suit him

1. How much do you think the price will shorten if Might Bite does win the King George ? im not sure whether to lump on now, or whether to hold fire. i say that because if it doesnt win the KG the price surely will remain as is or even drift a point or two.

2. Has anyone heard if this is the target for Coney Island and if it is due soon?

I share everyones hurt regarding Annamix and had backed at nice prices along with Epicuris, Pym and Claimantakinforgan. I see and understand the love for Menghli Khan, it has won its races in fine fashion and done this impressively. However for some reason i cant bring myself to press the button on it and im not sure why! The horse deserves favourtism and i was wondering...

3 Has there ever been times when you know you should back a horse and for some unknown reason you just havent? or vice versa have there been times when you know you shouldnt back a horse but for some inexplicable reason you still did?

Keep up the good work guys and i look forward to joining in more

My thoughts are that WHEN he wins the King George If winning well then I would have thought he would have been around 3/1 ? I think if those prices were offered then I would still be going in on him! Thought massive things of this horse ever since he ran away with the Feltham I think it was before crashing out. Unbelievable talent and will take a real good one to stop him!

Also remember the comments regarding MB running 'so many seconds' faster than Thistlecracks KG last year and MB certainly wasn't tiring coming down to the last, people can make cases around the pace but the KG certainly wasn't ran at a steady pace.

Might Bite to win the Gold Cup!!

[Can't Catch Me]

Im with you darlo. On at 12/1 for the KG / GC double and think 10/1 is still a great price.

[Joleg]

Hi Joleg.

Question 1 .... I'd expect him to be around the price Thistlecrack was after he won it ... 5/2? I'd probably take the 10/1 on offer for him to win both of i was going to back Might Bite and wasn't invested already. Unless you'd prefer to just lump on now for the KG?

Question 2. Has been answered ... Good bet for Gold Cup I'd say at 33s

Question 3 ... I sometimes should take a price and don't always act but that's because of the way I punt ... which limits potential ways you manipulate the market .... if you don't back 'a lot' in an ante post book I'd not mind holding off and missing some prices because its hard enough on the day .... on the day of Mengli Kahn was 2/1 buy he was still unbeaten you could argue that's a better bet than 7/1 now .... guess it depends how you bet imo

Kev, regarding Q1, i am already on for the KG but feel i may have missed some of the 'juicier' prices for the double. i think i may let it go for now and then back the GC as a single dependent on how he runs. however i have been known to change my mind!
Douvan and/or Yorkhill could throw a spanner in the works and it may be this thats stopping me from going in now

[Joleg]

Might Bite to win the Gold Cup!!

I think i agree!

[Kevloaf]

Every Monday.... not watched this yet....

[Kevloaf]

Kev, regarding Q1, i am already on for the KG but feel i may have missed some of the 'juicier' prices for the double. i think i may let it go for now and then back the GC as a single dependent on how he runs. however i have been known to change my mind!
Douvan and/or Yorkhill could throw a spanner in the works and it may be this thats stopping me from going in now

If he gets beaten in the KG though, would you want to back him at Cheltenham? For me, if doesn't beat this field at Kempton he won't be beating them over further at the festival?

No chance Douvan runs IMO and Yorkhill might go to the Lexus which might help or hinder Might Bites prioce... hard to predict

[Kevloaf]

That ante-post expert in that Racing Post video could learn a few things on here 20/1 Mengli Khan? Pfffft haha

Also, he's had 15 ante post bets for Cheltenham with 99 days to go.....
15?

hahahaha I might have a problem.... I've had over 300.

Although he does put up Cause of Causes 6/1 as his best bet, so I think he is a genius.

[Joleg]

If he gets beaten in the KG though, would you want to back him at Cheltenham? For me, if doesn't beat this field at Kempton he won't be beating them over further at the festival?

No chance Douvan runs IMO and Yorkhill might go to the Lexus which might help or hinder Might Bites prioce... hard to predict

Pretty much my issue. i really do like MB for the GC at this stage and also for the GC but having not placed the double already i think i have to wait. fully agree with your point if he gets beat.

Not so sure about Yorkhill, given his Cheltenham record i think he would have to go, its just predicting which race. The GC would not be out of the question and im sure that Mr Wylie would like an opportunity to win this, currently he has nothing better.

Douvan, who knows!!

[Joleg]

That ante-post expert in that Racing Post video could learn a few things on here 20/1 Mengli Khan? Pfffft haha

Hindsight is a great thing, had i been on here a couple of weeks ago and seen 20/1 i may well have added him to my book, which would then have made my earlier question unnecessary.

Well done to those of you that got the price

[Kevloaf]

Pretty much my issue. i really do like MB for the GC at this stage and also for the GC but having not placed the double already i think i have to wait. fully agree with your point if he gets beat.

Not so sure about Yorkhill, given his Cheltenham record i think he would have to go, its just predicting which race. The GC would not be out of the question and im sure that Mr Wylie would like an opportunity to win this, currently he has nothing better.

Douvan, who knows!!

Yorkhill has to go Gold Cup ... he'd be the best chance Mullins/Walsh/Wylie have had ... his Cheltenham record is 2 from 2 at the festival..... could win the Ryanair easily and would not be out of place CC or CH ....