Cheltenham 2018 Ante post bets

[billymag]

Taken a look at the Arkle market today and Petit Mouch and Melon stand out a mile, has anyone heard if they are going chasing please?

[Kevloaf]

Melon was mentioned as a potential champion hurdle horse but no decision made by Mullins a week or so ago.
PM chasing although I can't place when I heard that

[Faugheen_Machine]

I'm taking the 25/1 on Melon for the Champion Hurdle. Placed horses in the supreme have a good record in the champion, with Jezki and Buveur D'air being recent examples.

[Kevloaf]

I'm taking the 25/1 on Melon for the Champion Hurdle. Placed horses in the supreme have a good record in the champion, with Jezki and Buveur D'air being recent examples.

I've had 1 point on this already. A little risky but it doesn't take much for Faugheen and yorkhill to be ruled out and you're looking at single figures straight away. I think I mentioned it a couple of pages back but the confidence in the horse and what he must have shown at home means there must be so much talent. Impossible to argue he doesn't have the most scope for improvement too?

[Vanilla]

Blow By Blow, 14/1 to win any race.

If he returns from injury as good as he was in his bumper days, then he has to be a major player in the novice hurdle races.

[jono]

This may be of interest to some.

The PP to win any race market allows you to put your horse in a multiple, providing the horse(s) you are putting it in with are from a different market. For example, I've just doubled Red Jack TWAR 16/1, with Buveur D'air in Champion Hurdle.

Most firms don't allow this as they are usually special markets and restricted as singles only.

Great find Faugheen. I added the following today using this:

Finians Oscar with Buveur D'Air (CH)
Samcro with Buveur D'Air (CH)
Red Jack with Buveur D'Air (CH)
Blow by Blow with Buveur D'Air (CH)
Bacardys with Cause of Causes (Cross Country)

Probably one step closer to an account closer mind...!

[ryanh97]

Gonna be some badly damaged books in here if Buveur doesn't get the job done!!

[jono]

Gonna be some badly damaged books in here if Buveur doesn't get the job done!!

I have full confidence in Buveur if he gets there in March fit and well...Peas and carrots everywhere if anything happens to the horse though!

[mayo]

Tis Autumn



CH Melon @ 17.00
AR Finian's Oscar @ 15.00
JLT Yanworth @ 11.00
Ryanair Min @ 9.00
CC Cause Of Causes @ 10.00
GC Un De Sceaux @ 21.00
Heinz, 57 bets * £0.10 E/W

£830k

[ryanh97]

I have full confidence in Buveur if he gets there in March fit and well...Peas and carrots everywhere if anything happens to the horse though!

Yeah I can imagine. I'm yet to delve into an antepost bet. Just a tiny bit too long for something to happen.

[jkite16]

Afternoon all,

Does anyone have an insight as to where Finians Oscar is going to be aimed at? I've invested in the Arkle and JLT around 80/20 respectively, so praying it's the Arkle....

[Kevloaf]

Afternoon all,

Does anyone have an insight as to where Finians Oscar is going to be aimed at? I've invested in the Arkle and JLT around 80/20 respectively, so praying it's the Arkle....

My initial thoughts would be the JLT, based on a few things. He was being aimed at the Neptune, and historically I can only see two horses since 2007 that palced in the Neptune (Tidal Bay (2nd in 2007, won 2008 Arkle) and Simonsig (won 2012 and Arkle win 2013) that ran in the Arkle. Looking through the last 10 years I can't see a horse that has posted a higher RPR at 2m after running in the Neptune. Plenty have improved for a step up in trip, even arguably Tidal Bay, and Simonsig we'll unfortunately never know, which links me to the second point which is that Finians Oscar has already won a P2P and a novice hurdle at longer trips than the Arkle is over... I absolutely do NOT think that he couldn't win the Arkle, and if he was running I would certainly be with him on all known hurdle form, I do however feel that the JLT may be the trip we see the best of him at this stage of his career. A lot of water to go under the bridge before then, and you never know what the owners may want (Arkle certainly more prestigious) so I wouldn't be downbeat on any Arkle bets, but I wouldn't be placing any more on at this stage. (I will add, that the point I've made about Neptune placed horses is a VERY small data set, and Finian's Oscar didn't actually make the field so I can't assume he is a placed horse but it was just some brief thoughts!

[KingSprinterSacre]

Hes going to be a beast over fences. I've him in numerous JLT bets and haven't even covered the arkle.

[archie]

Of the top ten in the current Oddschecker list for the Arkle, and granted that one is dead and another is supposed to be out for the season, I'd say that only Petit Mouchoir is a likely runner. Finians Oscar, Ballyandy and Yanworth look more like JLT types to me. DDS stays over hurdles, I don't think that Brain Power has the class and I'm not hearing Melon or Cilaos Emery touted for the Arkle.

[Faugheen_Machine]

I think Finians Oscar is more likely to run in the Arkle than the JLT but looks like I'm in the minority.

Does Colin Tizzard favour one race over the other?