Cheltenham 2018 Ante post bets

[Hurricane fly]

I was disappointed Great Field didn't go to the Arkle as I would have taken Altior on with him.

Best prices 14/1 for the QMCC, he could be a good one for an ante post long shot e/w L15

[Faugheen_Machine]

Sad the hear the news about Labaik. Loved watching him race, even if his beating of Melon cost me an absolute fortune.

[Kevloaf]

Douvan
Tongue in cheek a bit, but with Altior beating Special Tiara (as we knew he would) little old Douvan might just be a few points too big? *thinking out loud here*

I didn't take the prices on Altior before the Arkle, I know some have 5/1 which looks brilliant now, and the target is assured.

It is all about the prices at this stage, so before I even think about who I think would win ..... Douvan at 7/2 is laughable? Only major stumbling block I can see, is him actually turning up. Now, [look away as I am wasting time guessing about a Mullins horses' target], I don't think it is as clear cut as people think that he will step up in trip. The Gold Cup division looks very hot now, with Might Bite, Thistlecrack, Sizing John, Our Duke, Coneygree, even Djakadam after his run at Punches! and potentially Yorkhill - I know I wouldn't be rushing to try him out... ? I have a nagging sound bite in my head from Ruby comparing him to Kauto Star, and it would echo that great legend if he did now step up...

So, I've changed my own mind, is 6/4 on Altior STILL a good price now. We know where he is going, we know he has the CC 2nd and 3rd covered with 10l+ in hand and there is significant question mark over whether Douvan will turn up! They might have another crack at him with Min?

4 pts on each? 4 Altior, 2 Douvan?

6/4 Altior
7/2 Douvan

I don't want to be too bullish about who I think would win at this stage, but I am just looking at an angle in to this race as an ante-post book... having "both" running for me would be brilliant... and allow me much closer to the time to very safely pick a side!

[Faugheen_Machine]

I'm a massive Altior fan and think he'd beat Douvsn all things being equal, that said, 6/4 Altior with 11 months to go is too short.

Not sure locking up points on Douvan and Altior at those prices is the way to go at the moment Kev.

Any news on Min?

[Istabraq]

I can't see any championship markets moving between now and Sept/Oct unless there's big injury news so I'm not tempted by the AP prices.
There might be some mileage in novice races if you know where the big boys are spending their cash...

[Kevloaf]

Yeah I talked myself out of it... with the benefit of hindsight, I "missed" the short prices on Douvan this year and that didn't turn out too badly.

Plenty of 6/4 between now and March to get stuck in to...

[Kevloaf]

I'm half tempted by Charli Parcs at 33/1 for the CH .... would be a punt on absolute blind hope / faith that he improves (certainly past DDS) but he MUSY have been showing something ..... where is that 'cliff horse thread'

[BigChaang]

Some interesting thoughts and points in the last few posts chaps , I am not convinced that Douvan will go up in trip,
I would have thought it will be softly softly , coming back from such an injury, and surely the
gruelling 3m 2f in the gold cup is unlikely ,possibly the J.L.T though ?.
I have been nibbling away with altior A/P ., in most of my L.15's, never got 5-1 , but 2-1 up until
last weekend. barring injury i think altior will be much shorter near the off.
Plenty of hot horses in the gold cup, Could be a cracker.
Also, Apples Jade looks to have joined the stayers hurdle reckoning , certainly what
brian cooper says. personally , i've had a bet on bellshill in the gold cup @ 50-1.
I'm hoping that bellshill will improve some , 3rd in the r.s.a is good form.

[Geordieboy83]

Hi guys I am new just like to say hi, great posts and very informative. What's people thoughts on the news of Coneygree going French hurdling? I have had a little nibble at 50s for GC still think that's the obvious target.

[jono]

Hi guys I am new just like to say hi, great posts and very informative. What's people thoughts on the news of Coneygree going French hurdling? I have had a little nibble at 50s for GC still think that's the obvious target.

Welcome Geordieboy - Makes sense really. I imagine they (Bradstocks) are just trying to strike whilst the iron is hot with Coneygree. Due to his build he's even more so just as likely to get an injury at home/rolling around than he would be in training/during a race so there's no guarantee if they put him away for the summer he'll return fit and ready to go. I agree the 50's was too big and he showed at Punchestown how good he is though I would be very surprised if he could win it next year if all the contenders line up and the general 14/16's on offer since is now far too short. I think any long term plans for the horse are best shelved and they should (and probably will) now take in whatever races are around whilst he is fit instead of now planning a season around Gold Cups and King Georges etc

[Kevloaf]

Hello Geordie - I took the 50's before Punchestown but I'd say he isn't very likely to turn up - as jono says, certainly wouldn't be a horse I'd usually consider backing this far out, and to be fair even 50s isn't definitely good value if you factor in his injury record...

Hadn't actually seen the news regarding the hurdling... certainly interesting. (odds would dictate) but I am not sure I'd be too confident on his next start, could well 'bounce' after a cracking return?

[jono]

Also, Apples Jade looks to have joined the stayers hurdle reckoning , certainly what
brian cooper says. personally , i've had a bet on bellshill in the gold cup @ 50-1.
I'm hoping that bellshill will improve some , 3rd in the r.s.a is good form.

Interesting, I was actually thinking today about putting her in a multiple in the mares...I was just about to ask for quotes and then found it (for anyone else interested)

Cooper:

I was keen not to get caught in behind horses so I kicked on. I knew she'd stay well. I see no reason why she would not develop into a Stayers' Hurdle contender next season, but she deserves a big, long break now

Elliott and O'Leary also mentioned:

She seems to be going the right way. We'll enjoy this and Gordon will make some plan for her for next season, but she seems to be a very good mare who is only five, so hopefully there's a bright future ahead of her.

"If she was fit and well that Mares' Hurdle in Cheltenham again looks tailor-made for her."

Elliott said: "She's a very good mare and that was a great performance. "I doubt if she will jump fences next year and the Mares' Hurdle or the Stayers' (at Cheltenham) are possible targets for her

I presume we'll have a whole season questioning the target for her, though Elliott is generally one of the better trainers in regards to naming a more likely target further out. I'd guess she'd follow a similar path to last year but starting later:

Early December Hattons Grace 2m4
Late December Christmas Hurdle 3m
(possible Galmoy Hurdle in January 3m)
Late February Quevaga Mares Hurdle 2m4

With the key being to try her out over 3miles early on and to get a run as close to the festival as possible. Personally i'd lean towards the mares with her if I was Elliott - 3/1 is short but i can't see what beats her if she lines up. VVM and Limini look well held, the novice mares this year look a level below her, Fayonagh won't run here and Annie Power will be retired. Add in a division where there's few outsiders likely to emerge and i'd say she's a good thing? It's hard to pass up that when he'll be looking to be leading title at the festival once again. One of the key reasons why Mullins has been so dominant at the festival is he has been able to farm races like the mares year on year. However i'd say O'Leary would lean the other way for the stayers (though i'm sure retaining the mares from Mullins once again must also deep down be an incentive i'm sure) and although I don't think Cooper has much sway on targets, the stayers clearly looks his preference.

[Kevloaf]

Personally i'd lean towards the mares with her if I was Elliott - 3/1 is short but i can't see what beats her if she lines up. VVM and Limini look well held, the novice mares this year look a level below her, Fayonagh won't run here and Annie Power will be retired. Add in a division where there's few outsiders likely to emerge and i'd say she's a good thing? .

I don't think VVM and Limini are 'well held'. Certainly VVM is very closely matched on both of their encounters. Less than a lenth in total? I hope I am wrong, but I doubt VVM would go over fences at the festival, she's not up to grade 1 open chase company over any distance (Ryanair contender perhaps) but she will surely go for the mares race again... try and 'regain' her crown. Half tempted by the 10/1 on offer for her to be perfectly honest! A 1st and a head 2nd in the last 2 years... She might well have 6 entries again but it was clear from a long way off she'd be heading here and I think she will again.

[mayo]

Apples Jade could go Quevega route now for a few seasons - mares At fez and Stayers at Punchestown. Could also mop up those races Bowes used to win with Solerina & co.

[jono]

True...On the 2 races between the pair It probably is a bit of an exaggeration on VVM and Limini being 'well held' by Apples Jade.

I would favour her to beat both the Mullins Mares if they lined up say tomorrow, and that's with me having backed VVM both times against her (and lost) and also thinking Limini would win both times (won/lost). VVM is a horse i do really like and although she's not finished at 8years old, i'd expect Apples Jade to improve once more going into next season where as I think we have found VVM's level which though not far away right now, is unlikely to improve much going forward so having already beaten her twice you'd expect that to continue? Agree with the Mares being VVM's logical race though next year.

Good shout mayo, could easily see them doing that.

Interesting the the FFP team think AJ could be one for the Champion Hurdle next year. Not sure I could see her going back to 2 miles myself...