Cheltenham Festival Handicaps

[Faugheen_Machine]

I think he'll run one more time and that'll dictate where MF goes. He needs an end to end gallop to be shown to best effect. I'd imagine he'll have plenty of weight if he does go Fred Winter as Phil Smith won't let him away lightly.

[Kevloaf]

I think he'll run one more time and that'll dictate where MF goes. He needs an end to end gallop to be shown to best effect. I'd imagine he'll have plenty of weight if he does go Fred Winter as Phil Smith won't let him away lightly.

How much notice of talking horses/tips does the handicapper give do you think?

At least two have mentioned him for this race now that I can remember hearing (I assume on RP podcast) and The Donn? .... would that have us worried? OR am I worrying over nothing?

The man seems to be very important!

[Faugheen_Machine]

He stuck a good few lbs on Diamond King last season after people started talking him up.

Juvenile hurdlers are probably my weakest area to be honest but I didn't even consider him being a Fred Winter horse when I watched him at Christmas.

[ryanh97]

Ed Quigley just added North Hill Harvey to his Cheltenham Portfolio at 14/1 expecting him to go off half the price

[Faugheen_Machine]

Starchitect won nicely today. A potential Grand Annual horse but won't be missed in the market.

[mayo]

DONN

http://donnmcclean.com/2017/01/07/mercian-prince/

Mercian Prince

Mercian Prince put up a really game performance to win the two-and-a-half-mile handicap chase at Sandown on Saturday.

The Midnight Legend gelding travelled well from flagfall and along the inside for Jack Quinlan in mid-division, and he jumped well, better than Marcilhac directly in front of him, who was just a bit sticky at several of his fences after nodding on landing over the first. No better than seventh but still travelling well as they left the back straight and faced up to the Pond Fence, Amy Murphy’s horse came under pressure as All Together and Gores Island went for home around the home turn, and he was still fully three lengths down on the run to the final fence, but he stayed on really well up the run-in to go on and win by two lengths in a good time, the fastest comparative race on the card on the day.

It was another fine performance from Mercian Prince. He was an impressive winner at Southwell at the end of November on just his second run in Britain, for which the handicapper raised him 11lb, but he proved on Saturday that he was well up to his new mark. He was raised another 7lb for Saturday’s performance, but that was merited. He won well, he was strong at the finish.

The Midnight Legend gelding has just turned six and Saturday’s run was just his sixth run in a chase and just his third in Britain, so he has lots of scope for progression. And he races like he should get further than two and a half miles, so there could be significant progress forthcoming for a step up in trip. His new rating of 135 means that he could get into the Close Brothers’ Novices’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, but if he runs between now and then he could go through the 140 barrier for that race. He shapes like a horse who should go beyond his new mark, and he will be of interest wherever he goes next.

7th January 2017


( and another JP horse in a handicap )


Blazer

Blazer ran well for a long way in the two-and-a-half-mile beginners’ chase at Cork last Saturday.

Travelling well just behind the leader Uncle Danny from early for Barry Geraghty, the Willie Mullins-trained gelding jumped up on the outside of the leader at the last fence in the back straight, and looked the likely winner as they rounded the home turn. Moved towards the near side at the top of the home straight, he just seemed to tire from that point. He got in tight to the third last fence, landed awkwardly over it and, all of a sudden, his winning chance had gone. He was in tight to the second last fence too, as Uncle Danny went clear, and he was well beaten by General Principle for second place, just holding on for third from Jett.

It was a disappointing end to the race, but he did travel and jump well through the early stages of the race. He did weaken close home on his seasonal debut in A Genie In Abottle’s beginners’ chase at Fairyhouse last month and, while that was over three miles, it may be that the heavy ground over two and a half miles caught him out on Saturday.

A progressive handicap hurdler last season, JP McManus’ horse was impressive in winning a decent handicap hurdle at Leopardstown last February off a mark of 126, and he ran a cracker to finish fourth in the Coral Cup at last year’s Cheltenham Festival off a mark of 141. The handicapper dropped him 2lb for Saturday’s run to a chase mark of 133, and that gives him plenty of leeway. He jumps his fences well, so he should be at least as good over fences as he is over hurdles, and he will be of interest now in a handicap off that mark, when he can get back on better ground. Two and a half miles is probably a good trip for him, and the fact that he has good Cheltenham Festival form is an obvious positive for him if he were to go back to Cheltenham this year.

7th January 2017

[mayo]

and one for Aintree ?


Cyrius Moriviere

Cyrius Moriviere was unlucky not to win the two-mile-three-furlong novices’ chase at Doncaster last Monday.

Sent to the front from flagfall by David Bass, his jumping was fast and fluent, and he had his rivals in trouble from the top of the home straight. There was no sign of him coming back to his field, he was six lengths clear and had the race in the bag when his saddle slipped on the run to the second last fence, and he unseated his rider. He actually jumped the fence very well, as he had the previous 13, his rider was just unlucky.

It was a decent novices’ chase, the first four home are all progressive novice chasers, lightly raced over fences, the winner Querry Horse is rated 135 and the third horse Hammersly Lake is rated 142, and Cyrius Moriviere would have beaten both of them well. Also, the winning time was good, just 0.14secs/furlong slower than Racing Post par, and Cyrius Moriviere would almost certainly have gone a fair bit faster.

Ben Pauling’s horse has now run in three chases, and he has failed to complete in all three. He was probably beaten when he fell on his chasing bow at Doncaster in early December, but that race was won by Might Bite, and Might Bite is one of the best staying novice chasers around this season. He would have clocked a much faster time than Thistlecrack clocked in winning the King George had he not suffered that crashing fall at the final fence in the Feltham Chase. Also, the runner-up in that race, Premier Bond, was impressive in winning a novices’ chase at Catterick on New Year’s Day on his next run.

On his second chase, at Ludlow just before Christmas, Cyrius Moriviere unseated his rider at the first fence. It was just one of those things.

He could be under-rated now, he might be regarded as an unreliable conveyance with form figures FUU over fences, but that would not be an accurate assessment on the evidence of Monday’s run. His jumping was efficient and assured. It looks like an asset as opposed to a liability. A progressive novice hurdler last season, he is probably at his best on goodish ground and on a flat track, which is probably why he goes so well at Doncaster. His record over hurdles on flat tracks on ground no worse than good to soft reads 211. He will be of interest now in another beginners’ chase or novices’ chase before stepping up in grade.

9th January 2017

[Kevloaf]

Ben Linfoot has suggested Champers On Ice for the ultima. I've split stakes already on RSA and 4-miler. Wounded

[Faugheen_Machine]

I'd have thought he'd go down the novice route, rather than the handicaps. UTPT went RSA in his novice year.......I think!

[Faugheen_Machine]

Oh just read BL's column. A mark of 143 is probably going to tempt them, I thought he'd be around 147/148.

[JackieMoon33]

I'd have thought he'd go down the novice route, rather than the handicaps. UTPT went RSA in his novice year.......I think!

UTPT ran in the Ultimata Hanidcap on day one as a novice, the same race that has been mooted for Champers On Ice by Ben Linfoot.
Pipe pretty much only wins handicaps at the festival so even his best Novices seem to end up running in them. Greater plotter of a horse but not the greatest with graded horses.

[jono]

After the COI race at the weekend I saw the quotes from Pipe:

David Pipe said of the runner-up: "The Welsh National would be in the back of our minds in the future. We're a similar sort to the winner and I'm not disappointed. We were rated 146 and he was 143.

"The winner jumped a bit more fluently and we were beaten by a better horse on the day.

"He'll have lots of entries at Cheltenham and will have one more run between now and then. Hopefully that's the plan."

From that I also thought about that same handicap race that UTPT ran in and won on day one. He'll clearly have it as an entry but I have to admit I never thought of it as an option until those comments from Pipe. I still think it's much more likely he'll be bound for the 4 miler myself. I think the horse is screaming out for a marathon trip.

Good point Jackie on Pipe's graded record. Any other handicaps he could run in?

[Faugheen_Machine]

You're right JM. I had it in my head he was a second season chaser last season. I backed UTPT ante post in the Ultima last season so I should have remembered that really

[Faugheen_Machine]

Prize money in The Ultima and NH Chase are very similar. UTPT won it off 148 last season so the handicap wouldn't be the craziest decision in the world.

He'll need to improve his jumping which ever race he runs in.

[JackieMoon33]

Prize money in The Ultima and NH Chase are very similar. UTPT won it off 148 last season so the handicap wouldn't be the craziest decision in the world.

He'll need to improve his jumping which ever race he runs in.

Kim Muir is the other option as the extra couple of furlongs is probably right up his street.