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2017 Grand Annual
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Le Prezien beat Three Stars (who beat Ball D'arc off levels) by 14 lengths, albeit in receipt of 6 lbs. Can't believe the weight he's been given and will be a maximum bet for me if turning up here (think Nicholls is 60/40 in favour of running him here judging by various preview night comments)
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Originally posted by breeze View PostLe Prezien beat Three Stars (who beat Ball D'arc off levels) by 14 lengths, albeit in receipt of 6 lbs. Can't believe the weight he's been given and will be a maximum bet for me if turning up here (think Nicholls is 60/40 in favour of running him here judging by various preview night comments)
Has been given a lovely weight provided those above him stick around for the race.
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Originally posted by Jonnymac05 View PostAny views on Dodging Bullets off 151 & 10st 11lbs for this
At his age he should still be a player and could be plotted - but looking at the last runs it has been well done if this is the case. Anything on wind ops or headgear ?
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Originally posted by Jonnymac05 View PostAny views on Dodging Bullets off 151 & 10st 11lbs for this
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Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View PostNo trainer has won this race more since the turn of the century than Paul Nicholls, so both Dodging Bullets & Le Prezien look solid bets, not to mention their form looks solid, despite Dodging Bullets being disappointing so far he has run in some hot races, and has dropped down the weights nicely now. He'll be spot on for this I'm sure.
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I've never been able to work Dodging Bullets out. BAcked him in the supreme, flopped. Was rubbish in the Arkle the year after the year Champagne Fever won ... then won the Champion Chase?!
At the start of this season though, Nicholls was pretty adament he needed a step up in trip now because he wasn't that good over 2m. That hasn't worked so coming back down. I'd find it hard to see that as a 'plot' as such.
I just keep flitting between feeling like I would be STUPID not to back a previous Champion Chase winner in the Grand Annual, to thinking that he is the easiest horse to ruule out because he has always been bang average and got very very very lucky.
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Originally posted by Kevloaf View PostI've never been able to work Dodging Bullets out. BAcked him in the supreme, flopped. Was rubbish in the Arkle the year after the year Champagne Fever won ... then won the Champion Chase?!
At the start of this season though, Nicholls was pretty adament he needed a step up in trip now because he wasn't that good over 2m. That hasn't worked so coming back down. I'd find it hard to see that as a 'plot' as such.
I just keep flitting between feeling like I would be STUPID not to back a previous Champion Chase winner in the Grand Annual, to thinking that he is the easiest horse to ruule out because he has always been bang average and got very very very lucky.
Always been one that I have avoided backing.....
On the Nicholls lines, I do like Le Prezien for this - won earlier in the season at Cheltenham and although he could still go Arkle, has a decent chance in this.
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My take on this (and handicaps in general) is that horses run here for a reason, they may have been top table in years gone by but if they retained any of that level of ability they'd be running in the championship races.
I can't think (though I'm sure there are a few) of a horse who went from winning championship races to winning big handicaps years down the line, and this is due to a horses regression being underestimated and a handicapper slow to make allowances for that regression.
Handicaps generally go to unexposed types who haven't yet showed their true ability so when it comes to races like this I prefer to focus on non championship winning horses...
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Originally posted by Istabraq View PostMy take on this (and handicaps in general) is that horses run here for a reason, they may have been top table in years gone by but if they retained any of that level of ability they'd be running in the championship races.
I can't think (though I'm sure there are a few) of a horse who went from winning championship races to winning big handicaps years down the line, and this is due to a horses regression being underestimated and a handicapper slow to make allowances for that regression.
Handicaps generally go to unexposed types who haven't yet showed their true ability so when it comes to races like this I prefer to focus on non championship winning horses...
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