Cheltenham 2017 Antepost Bets

[Kevloaf]

The prices have been trimmed to 10/11 and 5/4 but still a no lose bet.

Nearly took the plunge with this last night (about 4am) and decided to wait until the cold light of day... wasn't sure how much to tie up. Free bet on 6 winners exactly

[Kevloaf]

Just had a small each way double on Messire Des Obeaux (Neptune) and Wholestone (Albert Barlett)

WE don't KNOW for sure Robin Roe would have picked up MDO in the Challow Hurdle and even if they'd have been close, being close to RR looks not half bad. No obvious stand outs in the race as of yet.

I think Wholestone is under rated as I've just said in the AB thread - beaten West Approach 3 times and WA is shorter in the betting having run well (yet ultimately unsteated) in open company last time out.

Likely to have the targets split as same ownership, and Wholestone has already been over further twice at least. Jockey is a negative for me but that is why it is 254/1

I think Death Duty will beat either of them whichever race, but there is always a chance the UK novicers are better than the Irish so I'll have a little tickle on this.

[doctorwu]

Mr PW Muillins got off Haymount after finishing 2nd to Bellshill in the Grade2 @ limerick on Boxing Day stating that he would love to ride him on some decent ground at the Festival in the 4miler. 16s readily available. I may well add him to my Fletchers Flyer bet @25s

[Istabraq]

Kev, if you're into trends there has never been a Challow winner go on to win the Neptune, something like 30 runnings ?
Of course there will be trendsbusters but that one has stood for a long time...

[Kevloaf]

Kev, if you're into trends there has never been a Challow winner go on to win the Neptune, something like 30 runnings ?
Of course there will be trendsbusters but that one has stood for a long time...

I don't worry about trends religiously. Novices couldn't/didn't win huge G1 staying chases until recently and now Coneygree and Thistlecrack have moved the goal posts... however, I understand they must have some relevance. In this instance, the reason I wouldn't be overly worried, is that usually the Challow is run on heavy ground, which it wasn't this time....and if Robin Roe would have won it, I would be incredibly confident about his chances. So I don't think it would be fair for me to dismiss a horse just beacuse it isn't the one I wanted to win it.

[doctorwu]

Kev, if you're into trends there has never been a Challow winner go on to win the Neptune, something like 30 runnings ?
Of course there will be trendsbusters but that one has stood for a long time...

Thats a huge trend, and one i would want to keep on my side. Another factor is A.King.

[jono]

Regarding the Challow - how often would the winner run in the Neptune though? I'm not going to go back 30 years but looking at the last 9 years:

2015 - Barters Hill - Albert Bartlett
2014 - Parlour Games - Neptune 2nd
2013 - Captain Cutter - Albert Bartlett
2012 - Taquin De Seuil - Neptune 6th
2011 - Fingal Bay - didn't run at the festival
2010 - Backspin - didn't run at the festival
2009 - Reve de Sivola - Neptune 2nd
2008 - Diamond Harry - Neptune 3rd
2007 - Souffleur - didn't run at the festival

So 5/9 didn't run at the festival or ran in the AB. The remaining 4 that did go on to run in the Neptune had odds of 13/2, 6/1, 15/2, 4/1 so all 4 had at least 2 horses who were expected to beat them and 3 of those runners placed.

Still no winners in that period but not quite as harsh when you look at it from that point. You could however say perhaps that despite the Challow being the same distance, it isn't always necessarily an indication that the Neptune will be the target?

[Kevloaf]

As a double figure price, based on the above, if I think I've got the target right, then I'd be pretty happy with my bet each way.

To say the Challow winners have a poor record based on that 9 years is like saying Mullins has a terrible Gold Cup record, or Hendo had a poor Supreme record..... I would consider 3 places from 4 runners pretty good!

[Istabraq]

Fellas, trends are trends, they've evolved over many years.
You can use them in any way you want, interesting point someone made earlier about ground in Dec (Challow) compared to ground at Cheltenham, never really looked at that angle but it's a valid point.

I never said Challow winners have a poor record, I said that there's never been a winner of the race go on to win the Neptune, that's not to say they can't run big races as your response has proved, but none have got their head in front (for whatever reason).

There was a similar trend in the RSA with Reynoldstown winners but that trend has been busted a couple of times in recent years.

So I'm not saying they can't win, but they haven't managed it yet....

[Kevloaf]

Yeah I do see your point ista and don't want to come across as dismissive, I'm sure you've taken it in the manner intended. When I first got in to racing I followed all the key trends at Cheltenham and it was profitable. I've moved away from it as a hard and fast rule now however I appreciate them as being matters of interest. If I am honest, I tend to find when the trend suits me, I follow it amd give it some substance, and when it doesn't I dismiss it as not important. I can't claim to be the perfect punter, but who could.

I used to like them because it helped me eliminate and put a line through different horses when I first looked at a race, but that was before I watched all the horses. For example, I remember trying to work out the Supreme in the year Al Ferof won it. I ended up with a line through all but 4 from various trends. (From memory I was left with Spirit Son, Al Ferof, Sprinter Sacre and Cue Card - although that might actually just be because they we're the "big 4" at the time for the race) ... anyway, back then, I wouldn't have known all the other horses properly, and certainly wouldn't have been able to distinguish what I felt was important or not. In contrast, this year, a horse like Elgin say, I have watched him live in both runs, and am aware the trainer thinks he needs a bit of cut in the ground.NOw rightly or wrongly, I'll put a line through that horse (unless if was soft) from my own opinion, rather than potentially 'leaving him in' because he won the key trial? (This is all off the top of my head)

I think I'll be looking at key trends in the handicaps... but that is because I won't be able to know from memory which horse has done what and so on.

[Istabraq]

Trends evolve all the time Kev, the key is riding them while they're strong.
I remember one painful year when I was following age trends and Master Minded won the Champion Chase (and he didn't just win it he demolished them without coming off the bridle) and Katchit won the Champion Hurdle as five year olds, something that wasn't previously thought possible, so you do get freak results but they are generally the exception and not the rule.
And they came at a time when French breds became more prominent in our game and as they send their 2yo over stuffed hurdles and fences at 3 we shouldn't be surprised that at 5 they're capable of winning championship races.

What's interesting now, and will/is changing many trends, are the way horses are handicapped (particularly Irish) which means a massively condensed field, 7lb top to bottom isn't uncommon, so any topweight trends or horses carrying xxxx should now be disregarded.
The other issue is the expanded festival, 15 years ago there was no Potato race, JLT or Ryanair and how the introduction of these races has on the established races is continually evolving, their inception has already affected the field sizes in other races such as RSA, Arkle and even the Gold Cup and I expect them to start affecting profiles of winners over time.

One trend I will take to my grave, Triumph horses do not make Champion Hurdle horses.
Different courses, different skills required and very definitely emphasis on stamina for the Triumph means they won't have the speed needed to win a Champion the following year.
Of course Katchit managed it but he was the original trendsbuster, I'll be opposing every 5yo/ex Triumph horse in Champion Hurdles until the bank runs out....

[jono]

I too used trends quite a bit early on when I got into racing. When you know a limited amount about the sport I think the appeal of being able to cut through the field and then only having to concentrate on a select few horses helped me out.

Nowadays with having a bit more knowledge about the sport (and having improved my betting strategy a little...i hope!) I try and study the horse and the form before I then see how the trends fare for that scenerio/race. I won't rule a horse out based just on a trend but it can sometimes help in giving that extra nudge.

There are definitely particular trends that I give a lot more weight. Trainer, especially recent trainer form is a big one for me. Trainers are creatures of habit and when they have success in a race - they'll often try and replicate it and time and time again you see cycles of this. Maybe not a trend but for me previous festival and course form is massive for me too. I'd also agree with going against any triumph horse stepping up to the champion hurdle.

I do also like to look into some trends in a bit more detail, such as the Challow Hurdle one you mentioned or where particular races are a 'bad' trial. Just because I think many people (not yourself but when the festival gets close and plenty of opinions are banded around) will use that as a quick dismissal where when you actually look back over the results it isn't actually as bad as first thought. 0/9 challow winners won the neptune so it's a bad trial OR you could also say that 75% of challow hurdle winners that then ran in the neptune placed with a formline of 2623. More importantly bookmakers will often follow a trend like this as well so underestimate a horse and have it a bigger price than maybe it should be and I can use this to my advantage...or that's the plan!!

Certainly agree though that trends can pretty much be manipulated to suit whatever agenda.

[Kevloaf]

Altior - Match bet to me and 11/8 is fair for that.
Faugheen - will surely be odds on (odds against now to me is worth the risk of him turning up?)
Douvan - if he doesn't fall or unseat he can't be beaten. 1/2 will look big on the day.
Death Duty - When he wins on Sunday, will shorten again for the AB. Target not certain but could be a banker at the price now. 3's might look very big after Sunday
Thistlecrack - similar to Douvan, if he doesn't fall he wins, and will get shorter after a win at Cheltenham next time out.

100/1 - What could go wrong? Plenty, obviously. Might have a silly lucky 31

[SH1591]

Altior - Match bet to me and 11/8 is fair for that.
Faugheen - will surely be odds on (odds against now to me is worth the risk of him turning up?)
Douvan - if he doesn't fall or unseat he can't be beaten. 1/2 will look big on the day.
Death Duty - When he wins on Sunday, will shorten again for the AB. Target not certain but could be a banker at the price now. 3's might look very big after Sunday
Thistlecrack - similar to Douvan, if he doesn't fall he wins, and will get shorter after a win at Cheltenham next time out.

100/1 - What could go wrong? Plenty, obviously. Might have a silly lucky 31

Who with? All i can find is around 60's

[Kevloaf]

Betway ... 99.85/1 to be exact